Bills-Broncos on Divisional Round Saturday: What We Learned from Denver's 33-30 overtime win

FULL BOX SCORE

• REWATCH: Bills-Broncos on NFL+ Premium
• READ: Nix suffers broken ankle, out for playoffs; Stidham to start in title game
• READ: Allen commits 4 TOs in loss: 'Let my teammates down tonight'
• READ: McDermott questions ruling on Broncos' McMillian's interception

1. Nix comes up clutch as Broncos win overtime thriller. When Denver needed Bo Nix, the second-year quarterback delivered. A second-half lull, in which Denver generated one first down on four drives, saw a 13-point Broncos lead evaporate. Nix then heated up, tossed darts into the Buffalo defense, leading a clutch eight-play, 73-yard touchdown drive, capped with a perfect 26-yard pass to Marvin Mims Jr. for the go-ahead score. After the Bills sent the contest into OT, Nix helped guide the Broncos to the game-winning Wil Lutz field goal. It was an up-and-down contest for Nix, who completed his first five passes of the game but couldn’t connect on his next six as the contest remained tight early. Denver took advantage of Buffalo's miscues and leaned on the QB. Nix finished 26-of-46 passing for 279 yards with three TDs and an interception, while leading the Broncos with 29 rushing yards on 12 runs. Sean Payton called one handoff in the fourth quarter and overtime. He was going to trust his second-year signal-caller to get the job done. Nix delivered. The question after Sean Payton’s stunning postgame announcement that Nix broke his ankle in overtime is how Denver will respond without the quarterback who shouldered the load. Jarrett Stidham will start in Nix’s stead in the AFC Championship Game.
2. Turnovers doom Allen, Bills. Self-inflicted mistakes cost Buffalo dearly, as they bow out of the postseason in the Divisional Round for the fourth time in the past five seasons. It was magic or tragic for Josh Allen’s unit. Buffalo didn’t punt a single time in 11 drives. They scored on six possessions but turned the ball over five times. The giveaways negated Allen’s magic. Despite an injured receiver corps, Allen picked apart a good Broncos defense, completing 25 of 39 passes for 283 yards with three TDs and two INTs. Allen also lost two fumbles, one late in the first half and one to open the third quarter, which led directly to six Denver points. The Bills gashed Denver on the ground with James Cook dashing for 117 rushing yards on 24 totes. However, leading 7-3 early, with a chance to take control of the contest, Cook’s fumble in Denver territory completely flipped the tenor of the contest. Buffalo put up 449 yards, 28 first downs, went 10-of-15 on third downs, 1-of-1 on fourth down and 3-of-5 in the red zone. Those are usually winning stat lines -- except when you turn the ball over five times. Denver scored 16 points on Bills turnovers, including the game-winning field goal. Brutal.
3. Broncos' D creates massive plays. Josh Allen took a deep shot in overtime, looking for a game-winning play to Brandin Cooks. Instead, Broncos corner Ja'Quan McMillian recovered, leaped into the air just as the ball arrived, and ripped it away from Cooks for Denver’s fifth forced turnover of the tilt. It was a day of big plays for Vance Joseph’s D, which forced just 14 turnovers in 17 games this season, tied for fourth-fewest in the league. Denver’s D got worked over by Buffalo for long stretches, allowing 449 yards, and couldn’t force a punt. However, they made the splash plays. Alex Singleton stuck James Cook to force a fumble. Nik Bonitto forced two fumbles, including leveling Allen on a sack to start the second half. P.J. Locke leapt in front of a deep shot for a pick. Then, McMillian’s heroics thwarted Buffalo in overtime. There will be a lot to clean up for Joseph’s unit, but on they march in January.
4. Penalties cost Bills on final drive. Maligned all season, the Buffalo defense gave its team a shot to get back into the contest in the second half. After a Josh Allen fumble early in the third quarter, Buffalo held Denver to a field goal. The Bills picked off Bo Nix on the ensuing drive and allowed a single first down on the Broncos' first four possessions. However, Sean McDermott’s club couldn’t hold a four-point lead in the final two minutes. Buffalo got off the field on the first possession of OT, but Allen’s second INT gave Denver the ball back, and the defense couldn’t get another stop. After Denver drove across midfield, Taron Johnson was called for a big pass interference penalty -- Joey Bosa’s roughing the passer penalty was declined -- to set up the Broncos in field goal range. The outcome was all but sealed after Tre'Davious White was called for another DPI to put the ball at the 8-yard line. On the final possession, the Bills were called for 53 yards in penalties -- they had 68 total for the game.
5. End of first half proves big. Tied 10-10 deep in the second quarter, Bo Nix led the Broncos on a go-ahead touchdown drive, punctuated by a perfect 29-yard strike to Lil'Jordan Humphrey. Then, disaster for Buffalo. With 16 seconds left and no timeouts, Josh Allen tried to conjure magic but was stripped on a scramble, which was recovered by Denver with two ticks remaining on the clock. Denver kicked a 50-yard field goal to go up 10 points. In a tight tilt, that sequence proved massive. Had that turnover not occurred, Buffalo could have been kicking a field goal to win the game in regulation instead of sending it to overtime.

Next Gen Stats Insight for Broncos-Bills (via NFL Pro): Bo Nix was particularly effective on deep passes, going 3 of 4 for 82 yards and two touchdowns on throws traveling over 20 air yards.

NFL Research: The Broncos won their first playoff game since winning Super Bowl 50 to end the 2015 season, snapping a nine-season drought without a playoff win. The Broncos won their third playoff overtime game in franchise history, the first since the 29-23 wild-card win over Pittsburgh in 2011 (the “TebowMania” game).