The Tennessee Titans' firing of head coach Brian Callahan this week has cleared the way for the first interim head coach of the 2025 NFL season.
Many will collectively suggest Tennessee should be taken more seriously this week because of what is often referred to as the "interim coach bump," a perceived boost in performance inspired by a change in leadership. However, history suggests Mike McCoy is far from guaranteed to lead the Titans to victory when they host the 4-2 New England Patriots on Sunday.
According to NFL Research, interim coaches are 20-30 in their first game since 2000, and 9-9 since 2018.
Last year, three coaches were fired during the season: Robert Saleh (fired by the Jets on Oct. 8), Dennis Allen (fired by the Saints on Nov. 4) and Matt Eberflus (fired by the Bears on Nov. 29). Two of the three coaches chosen as their interim replacements lost their first game in their new roles; only promoted special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi was able to pull off a win in his debut, a 20-17 Saints triumph over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10.
The numbers suggest Tennessee's chances of victory are somewhere between 40 and 50 percent, but some might argue McCoy is different than the average interim coach because he served as Chargers head coach from 2013-16.
We have data on that, too: Interim head coaches owning previous head-coaching experience are 9-11 in their first game since 2000.
The outlook, however, dims when considering the opposition. New England is riding a hot streak after earning two road wins to improve to 4-2 and move into first place in the AFC East.
Since 2000, interim coaches are 6-17 when making their debut against a team with a winning record, per NFL Research. The average point differential of -7.9 suggests the replacement leaders are keeping their teams motivated but aren't providing the performance boost most expect from interim coaches.
According to Titans leadership, they fired Callahan because the organization hadn't "demonstrated sufficient growth" under Callahan's direction. Typically, such growth doesn't happen overnight. It's been painfully evident their lack of talent has held them back the most, though Callahan's avoidable coaching errors certainly didn't help matters either.
We'll see if McCoy's past experience is enough to steady Tennessee's ship when former Titans coach Mike Vrabel leads his Patriots into Nashville.
