At around this time a year ago, the Philadelphia Eagles were well on their way to being cooked like a Griswold family turkey -- dry and tough to swallow.
After papering over issues early in the season, Nick Sirianni's club collapsed, losing five of its final six regular-season games and backing into an embarrassing blowout defeat in the playoffs. The entire outfit was a mess fit for a holiday family squabble.
The defense couldn't stop a runny nose with a Costco-size swath of tissues. In the final six weeks of 2023, Philly allowed 30.3 points and 383.8 total yards per game, finishing 31st in passing yards allowed (252.7) for the entire campaign. Jalen Hurts was a turnover machine, posting 20 giveaways on the season, fourth-most in the NFL, and Philly's turnover margin in Weeks 13-18 (minus-8) was the worst in the league in that span. The Eagles finished the season with a plus-5 point differential, the fifth-worst by an 11-win club in NFL history. Nothing looked good. It seemed like Sirianni couldn't make a correct decision to save his goose, from questionable coordinator moves to in-game management.
A year later, the Eagles are almost unrecognizable, a majestic, soaring squad sitting near the top of the NFC standings. Buoyed by bye-week kumbaya sessions between Hurts and Sirianni, Philly is on an eight-game winning streak, looking every bit like the bulldozing force that powered its way to Super Bowl LVII two seasons ago.
The differences from 2023 are glaring. Hurts isn't putting the ball in harm's way; he's turned it over just twice since Week 6. Saquon Barkley's explosive ability is a game-changer next to Hurts. And the defense is a menace, finding production from a trove of young players.
Sirianni survived last year's debacle and made good coordinator hires. General manager Howie Roseman hit enough home runs with additions like Barkley, rookie DBs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean and veteran offensive lineman Mekhi Becton that his swing-and-miss (Bryce Huff) has become a footnote.
It seems like Sunday's win over Baltimore has flown under the radar as the latest triumph in an impressive eight-week run. But let's not lose sight of what the Eagles accomplished, overcoming a deficit in hostile territory to squash one of the best offenses in the NFL, which happens to be led by an MVP candidate. Philly also ran away with it at the end; this was a double-digit road win against a supposed AFC power masquerading as a one-possession game, thanks to a garbage-time Lamar Jackson score.
Pairing an offense that can jab, jab, jab and then hammer home an uppercut with a defense that smothers opponents, Philly enters the holiday season as one of the few true title contenders. Keeping last year's Eagles late-season collapse in mind, post-Thanksgiving is a good time to consider some other narratives currently running through the NFC, separating fact from fiction:
1) Saquon Barkley was the Eagles' most important offseason addition.
Barkley is showing what he can do behind a legit offensive line. The star has been the Muhammad Ali of running backs this season, wearing opponents down and then hammering them to kingdom come with a game-changing gallop. Barkley's been worth every bit of the MVP talk he's garnered.
Having said that, the premise is fiction. The most important offseason addition in Philadelphia was coordinator Vic Fangio. Did we forget what this defense looked like last year? Sieves hold more water than the 2023 Eagles. Under Fangio, however, the defense has become an asset rather than a liability. It's slowing opponents when the offense goes into a lull. Presumably more confident in the D, Hurts is able to avoid taking the risks he took last year to make plays.
The Fangio difference can be seen across the lineup. He repositioned offseason signee Zack Baun, freeing a beast who could be an All-Pro. The production from the young players has been particularly impressive. Fangio has helped unleash Jalen Carter, who wrecks games, in his second pro season, while Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith have been transformed from afterthoughts into playmakers. The stellar performances of rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell (a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate) and Cooper DeJean traces back to a coordinator who can coax confidence and production from youthful talent. DeJean's play has been particularly key, as he's stabilized the nickel spot -- a crucial position in Fangio's scheme.
Fangio's importance is also evident when it comes to in-game flexibility. Rarely have the Eagles gone long stretches without adjusting to how the offense is attacking. If something doesn't work for a particular week, the DC quickly scraps it and finds a different solution. In Sunday's win over Baltimore, when Mitchell and safety Reed Blankenship were both hurt, it would have been natural for the secondary to collapse. But it didn't -- and that's on coaching.
2) The Falcons will continue to spiral down the stretch.
I want to excuse Kirk Cousins' four-interception outing on Sunday as one of those brain-cramp games that has plagued the QB from time to time in his career. However, his play has been a longer-term issue, so I must say the statement is a fact.
The Falcons' three-game losing skid can directly be traced to Cousins' inconsistency. Since Week 10, he's completed 62.5 percent of his passes with zero touchdowns and six interceptions for a 59.1 passer rating. He's the first player since Brett Favre in 2005 to have 100-plus pass attempts with zero passing TDs and six-plus INTs with at least one pick-six over a three-game span. During the three-game skid, it's not just that Cousins has struggled -- he's been one of the worst QBs in the league. His -0.22 EPA per dropback is second-worst in the NFL over that span (minimum of 100 pass attempts), behind only Aaron Rodgers. (Hmmm; what do those two men have in common?)
Cousins looks just as rickety via the eye test. Sure, he's not solely to blame for all of the INTs, but he has been slow to move, appearing to be a tick off-target more than he typically has been. Those minor issues are magnified for a QB whose best assets are his anticipation and guts. With a trip to Minnesota on deck to face his former team and the ultra-aggressive Brian Flores, Cousins needs a throwback game. Otherwise, Atlanta's losing streak will sink to four games.
Given the choice between trusting the Falcons to dig themselves out of a rut and the Baker Mayfield-led Bucs -- who have a slightly less difficult schedule ahead -- overcoming the tiebreaking losses to Atlanta earlier this season, I guess I lean toward Tampa Bay in the NFC South.
3) The 49ers' playoff aspirations are toast.
At 5-7, the Niners remain within striking distance of the division-leading 7-5 Seattle Seahawks. So, while a wild-card spot is seemingly out of reach, the postseason dream remains alive -- on life support, but alive. Kyle Shanahan's crew still boasts talent that spearheaded deep postseason runs in each of the past three seasons, but attrition has finally caught up.
This looks far closer to the 6-10 club that floundered the season following its Super Bowl LIV loss to Kansas City than anything we've seen the past three seasons. Something about losing to K.C. in Super Bowls destroys San Francisco.
Shanahan didn't forget how to coach, and the Niners still have talent, but the injury bug won't relent. You could almost make a Pro Bowl roster out of all the players the Niners have had on IR this season, from Dre Greenlaw to open the season, Brandon Aiyuk, Javon Hargrave, Talanoa Hufanga, and now Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason head there this week. That doesn't even count Nick Bosa and Trent Williams missing significant time or Brock Purdy sitting a game. Much like the heart, an NFL team can only withstand so much pain.
Entering Week 14, Next Gen Stats puts the Niners' division odds at 6 percent. Following back-to-back blowout losses, even that feels generous.
"Last year's team was obviously a better team," Shanahan said this week. "I'm not saying just from the roster, I'm just saying from the beginning to end, the way we started out, the way we felt in training camp, throughout the whole year. We've been trying to build that with this team. We've had times where we felt that we were on the right path to it and then we've had some setbacks that I think it's always been one step forward, two steps back. We really haven't grasped the full potential of this year's team. That's why I don't like comparing it to last year's team or the year before."
Unfortunately for Shanahan, injuries sapped the chance to grasp the full potential of this year's team, and in December, it's too late to find it. Thus, this is a fact.
4) Bryce Young has earned another season as the Panthers' starter.
This is trending toward fact. NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Sunday that Bryce Young could earn the right to be the Panthers starter in 2025 if he continued to make progress.
The IF hovered in the air like the stench of spoiled eggnog.
Then Young played well for the fourth straight game, nearly leading the Panthers to an upset win over Tampa Bay. If not for a leaky defense and a Chuba Hubbard fumble, Carolina would be toasting a comeback victory. This finally felt like Bryce's team.
Since his five-game benching, Young has shown vastly improved confidence and pocket deftness. He's making quicker reads. There are still more missed throws than you'd like -- Sunday he couldn't keep his deep sideline shots inbounds -- but the second-year quarterback has shown an ability to make plays and spray the ball to every part of the field. Instead of bailing backward, he's stepping into the pocket and showing much better footwork. The my goodness, what was he thinking?! issues that had plagued him have been mitigated.
I don't mean to sound gushing. Young still has a ways to go, but instead of being all-time bad, he's bumped things up to mid. Since Week 9, he's generated 6.5 yards per pass attempt with four TDs and one INT with an 85.4 passer rating. In his first 16 starts, he averaged 5.5 pass yards per attempt, with 11 TDs, 10 INTs and a 73.7 rating, per NFL Research. Over the past four games, Young averaged 0.0 EPA per dropback, which might look funny on paper but it ties him with Baker Mayfield over that span (for further reference, Justin Herbert and Sam Darnold averaged .01 and .02 per dropback over that span).
The point is that Young has shown enough good things that the Panthers don't have to bail and trade him this offseason. The plan entering the year was to buffer the young QB and let him grow. It took a benching to jumpstart the process, but Dave Canales has coaxed some improvement. Now, the former Heisman Trophy winner must continue to take baby steps as we approach 2025.
5) The injury-plagued Lions will stumble down the stretch, ceding the NFC North.
Detroit has seen a string of brutal injuries, particularly on defense. Aidan Hutchinson was the headliner, but losing the likes of John Cominsky, Marcus Davenport, Kyle Peko, Derrick Barnes and now Malcolm Rodriguez saps the Lions front. Alex Anzalone, the brain of Aaron Glenn's defense, is also out for an extended period. That doesn't even count all the other injuries -- Carlton Davis, Josh Paschal, Levi Onwuzurike, etc. -- that have taken down key contributors.
None of it has mattered. Dan Campbell's club continues to chug along like the Honolulu Blue Engine That Could. Coaching has helped overcome the injury bug, with Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson proving why they'll both be coveted this offseason. So, yes, this is fiction.
Unlike the 49ers, the Lions have avoided injuries that might completely gut their strength. Campbell's club is led by a gritty offense that can pulverize opponents on the ground and dice them up with play-action. Those facets -- even with Taylor Decker's injury -- remain intact.
The NFC North remains a historically tough division. Green Bay has overcome playing without its QB for multiple games. Minnesota refuses to stumble. If the Lions so much as hiccup, they could lose their advantage -- not to mention the No. 1 seed.
Campbell doesn't strike me as the hiccupping kind of guy.
All the metrics suggest that this is still the Lions' division despite having just a one-game lead. Through 12 games, Detroit ranks No. 7 since 1979 in FTN's DVOA metrics. Their 43.2% total DVOA is 21.9 points higher than Green Bay's and 22.9 points higher than Minnesota's. Next Gen Stats gives the Lions a 79% chance to win the division heading into Thursday's matchup with Green Bay.
Reminder: If not for Campbell's self-admitted coaching error in Week 2, this would be an undefeated Lions team.
As long as Jared Goff is under center, Penei Sewell is plowing the road, Sonic and Knuckles are collecting coins and Amon-Ra St. Brown is standing on his head, the Lions will be fine.
