NFL midseason crystal ball: 10 people who will shape the 2025 season's second half

The main takeaway from Buffalo’s 28-21 win over Kansas City is something that should’ve been clear before Sunday: Josh Allen has a true sidekick this season in Cook. Anybody who didn’t know the Bills had the league’s best running game before now just learned how valuable that attack will be to this team moving forward. Cook ran for 114 yards on 27 carries and helped Buffalo dominate the line of scrimmage against Kansas City. He also has five 100-yard games this season, which speaks to how much offensive coordinator Joe Brady has leaned on his young star. The Bills are the only team in the league who run it more than they throw it. That tells you the level of maturation that has taken place around Allen within that franchise. He won his first Most Valuable Player award last season by utilizing a more balanced offense. Now he seems capable of leading Buffalo to its first Super Bowl if Cook can keep this up. Allen completed 23 of his 26 passes for 273 yards and accounted for three touchdowns against the Chiefs. The Bills' defense dominated Patrick Mahomes despite missing five starters, largely because Buffalo controlled the ball for nine more minutes than Kansas City. All these achievements relate back to Cook’s ability to thrive in this system. It’s crazy to think he spent a good part of the offseason engaged in a contract dispute. He feels like a bargain with the way he’s currently playing.

Detroit won the NFC North and earned the top seed in the conference playoffs last season despite Hutchinson suffering a gruesome, season-ending leg injury in Week 6. But the tone-setting star has returned to make a gargantuan impact, especially given all the injuries in the Lions' defensive backfield. And Hutchinson’s ability to wreck games means even more when thinking about how Detroit’s normally prolific offense has been neutralized lately. The Lions have gone from averaging over 40 points per game over a four-game stretch earlier this season to scoring a total of 65 points over their last three contests, two of which have been losses (including Sunday's 27-24 defeat to Minnesota). It’s starting to feel like the Lions aren’t going to bully their way to another division title simply by boat-racing opponents. They need that defense to do its part, and that means Hutchinson -- who picked up his seventh sack of the season on Sunday -- has to start doing Defensive Player of the Year things. 

Let’s be honest here: Nix is the most confounding quarterback in the NFL right now. He can have stretches when he’s completely ineffective followed by moments when he’s creating game-changing plays. The one thing that is most predictable about him is that he tends to save his best stuff for the fourth quarter. The Broncos have won six straight games -- and four of those victories have come when they’ve trailed in the final 15 minutes. Denver’s 18-15 win over Houston on Sunday was yet another example of that. Nix posted underwhelming passing numbers -- 18-for-37 for 173 yards with two touchdowns and an interception -- but he made the plays when they mattered most. The Broncos had three straight drives end in punts until their final possession, when two Nix runs resulted in 34 yards and helped set up the game-winning field goal by Wil Lutz. Denver needs Nix to be just as clutch -- and a little more consistent -- over the next several weeks to break Kansas City’s nine-year hold on the AFC West crown. The Broncos won on Sunday despite the absence of All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who could miss more time with a pec injury. So, it won’t be defense that carries the day every week. The offense has to do its part as well.

Baltimore's head coach was lording over a train wreck a few weeks ago. Today, things look a whole lot different. The misery that clung to this team’s 1-5 start has been replaced by considerable optimism about a real path to the postseason. Yes, the Ravens are healthier (with quarterback Lamar Jackson returning from a hamstring injury), and the schedule is working in their favor (three of the next four games are against teams with losing records). Let’s also remember that Harbaugh has kept this team focused and playing hard through all the setbacks and defensive struggles. That’s not easy to do when you fall into a hole as deep as Baltimore found itself in. Harbaugh now has to keep that same momentum going over the next two months. The Ravens have five division games left, and the Steelers are the only division foe that should give them problems. The past is over. Harbaugh is in position to take this team from 3-5 to right back into the conversation of Super Bowl contenders. 

New England is this year’s surprise team, largely because Maye has surpassed every expectation placed upon him heading into his second season. He’s been one of the best passers in this league, as he’s thrown 17 touchdown passes against just four interceptions. He’s also delivered huge plays in critical moments, particularly in a Week 5 win over Buffalo that told the league that the Bills finally had real competition in the AFC East again. The Patriots lead the division, thanks in part to that victory over Buffalo. Whether they stay on top all season depends heavily on how Maye continues to progress. We know the schedule is going to work in his favor. The Patriots play at Tampa Bay (which had a bye in Week 9) and then face three opponents with losing records before their Week 14 bye and then a rematch with Buffalo. You can count on the Bills and Josh Allen handling business before that game arrives in a month, based on how they just beat Kansas City. Maye has to make sure his team is doing the same thing. 

It was hard to predict Smith-Njigba being this impressive this season. He was good last year -- when he had 100 catches for 1,130 yards -- but he wasn’t taking over games the way he is now. Smith-Njigba now has six 100-yard efforts in eight games. He’s been on a flat-out heater in the last four contests, with 32 receptions for 546 yards and three touchdowns. There were a lot of questions about how quarterback Sam Darnold would perform in Seattle without the presence of a star like he had in Minnesota with All-Pro wide receiverJustin Jefferson. The answer appears to be that Seattle would watch Smith-Njigba take his own star turn. As much as these Seahawks' success has been defined by Darnold’s presence and the rise of a dominant defense, the emergence of its third-year wide receiver has been just as critical. Smith-Njigba actually had 46 percent of his team’s receiving yards heading into Week 9, which was the highest share in the NFL. That production is huge for Seattle because the NFC West is shaping up to be a cage match in the second half. Seattle needs Smith-Njigba to continue being at his best to end up on top.

The Eagles' first-year offensive coordinator already has faced plenty of scrutiny this season. The defending Super Bowl champions have struggled offensively -- they ranked 25th in the league in passing and 19th in rushing coming into Week 9 -- and this team isn’t winning the NFC again unless Patullo can increase this unit’s potency. The good news here is that Philadelphia found a groove in its run game before the bye week. The team rushed for 276 yards in a 38-20 win over the Giants, with running back Saquon Barkley accounting for 150 of those yards on just 14 carries. The next step for Patullo is finding consistency in the passing game. There’s been a weekly dissection of wide receiver A.J. Brown’s mood swings in relation to his targets, but there have been real reasons for that frustration. The Eagles have too much talent to be so middling on offense. It’s up to Patullo to resolve that.

There isn’t an offensive lineman in the league who has more impact on his team’s performance than Alt. He left Sunday’s win over Tennessee on a cart after sustaining another high sprain to his right ankle, and every person associated with the Chargers franchise had to be holding their breath as he was wheeled away. Alt moved from right tackle to left tackle at the start of the season after Rashawn Slater, the normal starter on the blind side, sustained a season-ending knee injury. Alt played brilliantly as the Chargers jumped out to a 3-0 start, then went down with his first high ankle sprain in a Week 4 loss to the Giants. There have been other injuries to the Chargers’ offensive line, but the pressure that quarterback Justin Herbert faces when Alt is out reaches a different level. Herbert’s two worst games this season came in losses to the Giants and Commanders -- when Alt was hurt -- and he’s also taken 16 sacks in the five games in which his star lineman either missed entirely or exited with an injury (including six against the Titans). The Chargers also are 5-1 when Alt plays and 1-2 when he doesn’t. Any time he misses will have a great impact on the Bolts’ postseason goals.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: A team spokesman announced on Monday afternoon that Alt will undergo season-ending ankle surgery.

It’s time to start believing in the job Canales is doing in Carolina. The Panthers improved to 5-4 with their win at Green Bay, and there are a lot of reasons to think they can factor into the playoff race. It’s apparent that Canales has helped third-year quarterback Bryce Young find a comfort level. The emergence of running back Rico Dowdle as a difference-maker also helps immensely, as he just picked up his third 100-yard game this season in that Packers win. The Panthers' defense has improved, too, as it’s gone from being worst in the league to one that's formidable against the run. There’s going to be serious competition for playoff spots in the NFC, but Carolina is positioning itself to be in that conversation. The Panthers have winnable games against New Orleans and Atlanta coming up -- it’s not hard to see them sitting at 7-4 with six games to go. That’s not a bad place to be for a team that was in complete disarray when Canales arrived. 

The Chiefs' star receiver missed the first six games of the season due to a suspension related to his involvement in a high-speed car crash in Texas following his rookie year. He’s also spent his first three games back on the field reminding people why Kansas City was so excited about his return. Rice already has 20 receptions on the year, and he’s also logged four rushing attempts. That usage rate speaks to how many ways head coach Andy Reid wants to get the ball into this playmaker's hands. Rice is an exceptionally strong runner after the catch, and he’s developed an undeniable chemistry with Patrick Mahomes. It wasn’t a coincidence that Mahomes hooked up with Rice on a 29-yard catch on a fourth-and-17 play in the fourth quarter of that Buffalo loss. Kansas City's offense has evolved to the point that Rice is the go-to guy in most situations. His return energized this offense immediately, as the Chiefs ran through the Raiders and Commanders. They couldn’t do the same against the Bills, when Rice finished with four catches for 80 yards and 3-yard rushing touchdown. Clearly, though, the third-year wideout is the key to this offense. 

The Ravens quarterback is finally healthy after sustaining a hamstring injury in a Week 4 loss to Kansas City. The early indication is that he’s more than ready to make up for lost time. Jackson threw four touchdown passes in Baltimore’s Thursday night win over Miami, and the Ravens offense -- which ranked 28th in passing entering Week 9 -- looks ready to regain its rightful form. It’s true that Baltimore has a lot of ground to make up. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see Jackson do even more impressive things now that he’s back on the field.

There’s finally some real hope about what this defense can do. The Colts came into this weekend with the league’s best offense. They left with a strong reminder that Pittsburgh still knows how to push people around. A week after Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love picked them apart, the Steelers forced six turnovers and tallied five sacks against Indianapolis. The way Pittsburgh dominated the line of scrimmage was just as noteworthy, as that defense held Jonathan Taylor, the league’s leading rusher, to just 45 yards. The Steelers' defense has disappointed for most of this year. This could be a major turning point for that unit.

Buffalo didn’t rack up the splash plays that made Pittsburgh stand out on defense, but you must appreciate how the Bills contained Patrick Mahomes in Sunday’s win. Buffalo pressured Mahomes on 52.6 percent of his dropbacks, which was a 14.3 percent jump compared to their previous nine games against the star quarterback since 2020, per Next Gen Stats. Mahomes also completed just three of 16 passes for 61 yards and an interception when pressured and finished the first regular-season game of his career without a 50 percent completion rate. Buffalo invested heavily in D-line depth this offseason and used a first-round pick on cornerback Maxwell Hairston. So far, the returns are strong.

There’s been so much buzz about the Chiefs finally having more weapons around Mahomes that most people likely haven’t noticed the way Jones has declined this season. He’s been almost invisible lately -- he had two tackles in that loss to Buffalo and one in a win over Washington in Week 8 -- and he only has two sacks through nine games. Factor in his decision to not chase Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence on a game-winning touchdown in Week 5 loss and failure to keep contain on a game-clinching scramble by Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert in a season-opening defeat, and this hasn’t been his year. The Chiefs have every reason to be excited about a better offense. The problem is they won’t win a championship if their best defensive player doesn’t play better.

The Packers head coach has two issues working against him that landed him on this list this week. The first is the Packers have lost to Carolina and Cleveland this season, while also giving up 40 points to Dallas in a tie. Those are all games Green Bay should’ve won. The other problem is an area that falls under his purview: the offense. The Packers have scored a total of 23 points in their two defeats, and incredibly, that figure doesn't sum up how feeble Green Bay has looked on that side of the ball lately. There are days when LaFleur looks like he’s coaching the best team in the NFC. There also have been days when you wonder if this team really can reach the Super Bowl.

There’s not much to say about the effort the Commanders gave in their Sunday night loss to Seattle. Washington fell behind by a score of 28-0 in the first half and that deficit had everything to do with the home team's ineptitude. That defense allowed Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold to hit big play after big play, often with receivers running wide open in a 38-14 loss. Star quarterback Jayden Daniels, who sustained a serious left arm injury in the game, kept that defense from being exposed in 2024. It’s clearly a lot to ask for him and the offense to do that two years in a row.

These have been two of the best teams in the NFC all season, but they both have questions to answer coming into this contest. Philadelphia needs to prove that it's continuing to find answers to its offensive struggles. Common sense would tell you that we’ll see a greater commitment to the run game moving forward. As for the Packers, there’s a lot to like about their roster and potential, but this team also has underwhelmed during defeats to the Panthers and Browns, along with a 40-all tie with the Cowboys. The Eagles won both meetings of this matchup last season. The winner of this installment will have a nice advantage in the race for the NFC’s top seed.

• DraftKings odds: +1600
• Weeks in top five: 5
• Next game: vs. Patriots | Sunday, Nov. 9

• DraftKings odds: +2000
• Weeks in top five: 5
• Next game: vs. Cardinals | Sunday, Nov. 9

• DraftKings odds: +425
• Weeks in top five: 2
• Next game: at Buccaneers | Sunday, Nov. 9

• DraftKings odds: +350
• Weeks in top five: 5
• Next game: at Broncos | Sunday, Nov. 16

• DraftKings odds: +550
• Weeks in top five: 1
• Next game: at 49ers | Sunday, Nov. 9