Entering Week 13 of the 2024 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.
A few notes before we dig in:
- All probabilities presented are current as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 26 unless otherwise noted below.
- Terms defined:
- If win: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a win in its upcoming game.
- If lose: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a loss in its upcoming game.
- Playoff leverage: Refers to the quantifiable impact of a single game on a team's playoff prospects. It is calculated as the difference between a team's probability of making the playoffs if it wins the upcoming game versus if it loses. This metric essentially captures the stakes of a game in terms of playoff qualification. A high playoff leverage indicates that the outcome of the game has a significant influence on the team's playoff chances, making it a critical matchup, whereas a low playoff leverage suggests that the game has a lesser impact on the team's playoff probabilities.
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NFL playoff picture entering Week 13
| AFC | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose | No. 1 seed % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Chiefs (10-1) | >99% | 100% | >99% | 67% |
| 2. Bills (9-2) | >99% | 100% | >99% | 29% |
| 3. Steelers (8-3) | 93% | 99% | 91% | 3% |
| 4. Texans (7-5) | 94% | 98% | 89% | <1% |
| 5. Ravens (8-4) | 99% | >99% | 97% | 1% |
| 6. Chargers (7-4) | 86% | 94% | 81% | <1% |
| 7. Broncos (7-5) | 73% | 77% | 52% | <1% |
- What seemed inevitable even before the season started can become official in Week 13, as the Chiefs can clinch their 10th consecutive playoff berth over the next handful of days. In fact, because of the unique Thanksgiving Week schedule, K.C. could actually become the first team to qualify for the postseason, beating Detroit to the punch. Doesn't require all that much to happen, either: Kansas City is in with a win on Friday and losses by either Miami (on Thursday) or Denver (on Monday).
- Buffalo returned from its week off as the only legitimate remaining threat to Kansas City's quest to win the AFC. But the odds still lean considerably in the Chiefs' favor, with Andy Reid's group maintaining a one-game advantage over its conference rivals with six weeks to go. While it's obviously much better to be ahead than behind at this point in the NFL calendar, the Chiefs could do with a few less scares. In sneaking past three-win Carolina on Sunday, Kansas City improved to 8-0 on the year in one-score games -- a level of success that would seem wholly unsustainable for literally any other team.
- The Bills, in possession of the head-to-head tie-breaker over the Chiefs, seem inclined to keep the pressure on Patrick Mahomes and Co., knowing any future Kansas City miscue could create an opening to move ahead in the standings. This race should remain tight for at least another week -- unless a banged-up 49ers squad manages to do what no other visiting team has been able to this year by winning at Highmark Stadium.
- So much for the Steelers controlling their path to the No. 1 seed. Their loss to the underdog Browns on Thursday night, combined with Kansas City's walk-off win in Carolina, dropped Pittsburgh's probability to just 3 percent. While the Steelers can still help their cause when they host the Chiefs on Christmas Day, winning that holiday contest might ultimately prove more useful to Buffalo's chances of earning the first-round bye than it will to Pittsburgh's.
- Denver sadly did not claim the No. 1 seed in any of the 10,000 simulations this week. That's not to say it can't happen ... just that it almost certainly won't. Math can be mean. Still plenty of reason for optimism in the Mile High City, though, especially after the Broncos earned back-to-back wins for the third time this season. They enter Monday night's matchup against Cleveland with a chance to improve their place in the AFC hierarchy before hitting the bye in Week 14.
| NFC | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose | No. 1 seed % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Lions (10-1) | >99% | 100% | >99% | 70% |
| 2. Eagles (9-2) | >99% | >99% | 99% | 17% |
| 3. Seahawks (6-5) | 44% | 52% | 29% | <1% |
| 4. Falcons (6-5) | 70% | 81% | 59% | <1% |
| 5. Vikings (9-2) | 98% | >99% | 95% | 12% |
| 6. Packers (8-3) | 90% | 96% | 84% | 2% |
| 7. Commanders (7-5) | 60% | 71% | 42% | <1% |
- The Lions improved to 4-0 against the AFC South after a convincing win over the Colts on Sunday, and in doing so, remain the heavy favorites to clinch the NFC's top seed. But the Eagles and Vikings are hot on their heels. Detroit still has to play Green Bay, Buffalo and at San Francisco before hosting Minnesota in Week 18. And don't sleep on the Lions' two upcoming games against the Bears, including the opener of Thursday's Thanksgiving Day tripleheader. Detroit needed an improbable fourth-quarter comeback to beat Chicago in their first meeting of last season, then lost the 2023 rubber match by 15 points.
- Detroit could become the first NFC team and, depending on how things go with the Chiefs on Friday, the first team in either conference to cement its spot in the playoff picture. They'll need to beat the Bears on Thursday, first and foremost, then get a fair amount of help on Sunday. Their way in this week is far more muddied than Kansas City's, but it's possible.
- Philadelphia extended its winning streak to seven straight this past weekend, dismantling a Rams team that was a victory away from moving into first place in the NFC West. As glorious (and historic) as Saquon Barkley's 302-yard, two-touchdown effort was on Sunday night, it was dampened by the news that Brandon Graham will miss the rest of the season due to a triceps injury. The veteran's absence leaves a huge hole on the edge and in the locker room. To make matters worse, Philly is next set to face the only QB-RB duo that can rival its own: the Ravens' Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
- The Vikings' flirtation with disaster might eventually lead to their undoing, but for now, they still have an outside shot at claiming the No. 1 seed. Their list of upcoming opponents is a who's who of NFC playoff contenders, but at least they'll spend the next three weeks in the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium.
- Any lingering hope the Commanders had of finishing atop the conference dissolved after their shocking home loss to Dallas. At 0.09 percent probability, Washington joins Seattle (0.01%), Arizona (0.02%) and Atlanta (0.06%) among the NFC teams that earned a playoff bye in 10 or fewer of the 10,000 simulations.
Which teams are on the playoff bubble?
| AFC Bubble teams | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8. Dolphins (5-6) | 14% | 22% | 7% |
| 9. Colts (5-7) | 23% | 34% | 12% |
| 10. Bengals (4-7) | 14% | 20% | 4% |
- The Colts have company on the bubble entering Week 13. Their loss to the Lions on Sunday, while damaging to their overall playoff odds, was mitigated some by Tennessee's upset of the Texans, which keeps Indy in play in the AFC South (at least for a little while longer). The Colts' best shot of making the postseason is still as a wild card, though. With the easiest strength of schedule remaining in the NFL, plus a showdown looming with the seventh-seeded Broncos in Week 15, the Colts still have fairly favorable conditions for a team that has dropped four of its last five games.
- Unlike Indy, Miami has been operating on all cylinders over the past three weeks. The Dolphins outscored their last three opponents by a combined 42 points to claw their way back onto the bubble. Their head-to-head loss with the Colts could be an issue down the line, as could their three road games after Dec. 1; Miami is 1-5 away from Hard Rock Stadium in December and January under Mike McDaniel. But their more immediate problem is a short-week prime-time tilt with the 8-3 Packers at Lambeau.
| NFC Bubble teams | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8. Cardinals (6-5) | 51% | 66% | 40% |
| 9. Buccaneers (5-6) | 51% | 61% | 30% |
| 10. Rams (5-6) | 10% | 17% | 6% |
| 11. 49ers (5-6) | 18% | 30% | 12% |
- Instead of entering Week 13 with a bit of breathing room in the division race, Arizona finds itself booted from the playoff field altogether after laying a dud in Seattle. While the Cardinals' best route into the tournament continues to be as the NFC West champs, they still ended up punching their ticket as a wild card in 6 percent of the simulations (they can thank Dallas for that).
- Tampa is another of the handful of NFC teams that should be thinking of Dallas this Thanksgiving. The Cowboys' upset of the Commanders created an additional playoff opening for the Bucs, who sit just 1.5 games behind Washington in the NFC standings -- with the head-to-head tie-breaker in their back pocket. After a brutal first half of the season, things are really looking up for Todd Bowles and Friends. In fact, Tampa had the second biggest week-over-week increase in playoff probability league-wide (17 percentage points) and now has better than a coin-flip chance of clinching a berth.
So you're saying there's a chance ...
(Teams with less than 10% probability to earn a playoff spot.)
| AFC fringe teams | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11. Browns (3-8) | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 12. Jets (3-8) | 2% | 3% | <1% |
| 13. Titans (3-8) | 2% | 5% | 1% |
| 14. Patriots (3-9) | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| 15. Jaguars (2-9) | <1% | 1% | 0% |
| 16. Raiders (2-9) | <1% | <1% | 0% |
- There is no reasonable path for Vegas to make the playoffs, even if the math hasn't yet ruled the team out from a wild-card spot. But the Raiders can disrupt multiple races across both conferences, from the chase for the AFC's No. 1 seed to the NFC South to the NFC Wild Card, with games against the Chiefs, Buccaneers, Falcons, Saints and Chargers remaining. Technically, by winning at Kansas City on Friday, they'd throw a wrench in the AFC West competition, too. If you're the Raiders, the next best thing to making a playoff run is being a road block for one of your division rivals.
- Cleveland has only slightly better odds than Vegas of finagling its way into the tournament. But, unlike the Raiders, the Browns have several high-leverage games against AFC contenders still on their slate, including Monday night's matchup at Denver. If the Browns can pull off back-to-back upsets, they'll have additional opportunities to gain ground down the road, with games against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Miami and Baltimore -- all teams competing for wild-card slots -- still to come. With eight losses already, the Browns have basically no margin for error. But they enter the holiday weekend with a bit of hope, and that's something.
| NFC fringe teams | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12. Saints (4-7) | 4% | 7% | 1% |
| 13. Bears (4-7) | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 14. Cowboys (4-7) | 4% | 6% | <1% |
| 15. Panthers (3-8) | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16. Giants (2-9) | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- The Panthers nearly pulled off the upset of the year last Sunday, finishing three points shy of re-entering the playoff conversation. But, with their record at 3-8, it's draft discussion time.
- Where Carolina failed Sunday, Dallas succeeded, knocking off the Commanders in Washington in arguably the most chaotic game of 2024. In snapping their five-game losing streak, the once-written-off Cowboys enter the week with a 4 percent chance of earning a playoff berth. They can increase their odds by a couple points on Thanksgiving by taking down one of the few teams dealing with a QB situation worse than their own.
- The Giants are the only team in the league with a 0.0% playoff probability that will not change -- win or lose -- in Week 13. Tough look for a team that hasn't officially been eliminated from the wild-card chase yet.
Who's most likely to win each division?
(Teams that have been mathematically eliminated from their divisional races are not included below.)
| AFC East | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Bills (9-2) | >99% | SF, at LAR, at DET, NE, NYJ, at NE |
| 2. Dolphins (5-6) | <1% | at GB, NYJ, at HOU, SF, at CLE, at NYJ |
| 3. Jets (3-8) | <1% | SEA, at MIA at JAC, LAR, at BUF, MIA |
- One of the more lopsided contests in the league for more than a month, the AFC East race might finally be called this week. If Miami loses at Green Bay on Thanksgiving night and Buffalo's home-field advantage proves too much for San Francisco, the Bills would clinch their fifth straight division title.
- Despite taking the division in just two of the 10,000 simulations, the Jets could still technically finish on top by winning out while the Bills lose out and Miami finishes 9-8 or worse. Think the model might be on to something here ...
- The Patriots, who were eliminated from this race in Week 12, still have the means to wreak havoc on their division foes. They'll face Buffalo twice over the final three weeks to kick off a new QB rivalry in the East.
| AFC North | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Steelers (8-3) | 41% | at CIN, CLE, at PHI, at BAL, KC, CIN |
| 2. Ravens (8-4) | 59% | PHI, Bye, at NYG, PIT, at HOU, CLE |
| 3. Bengals (4-7) | <1% | PIT, at DAL, at TEN, CLE, DEN, at PIT |
| 4. Browns (3-8) | 0% | at DEN, at PIT, KC, at CIN, MIA, at BAL |
- And the pendulum swings back toward Baltimore. ... The positive vibes Pittsburgh amassed from its Week 11 win in the Charm City disappeared beneath the Cleveland snow last Thursday. And a quick scan of the Steelers' upcoming schedule suggests they are not through the storm just yet.
- The Ravens' resounding win in Monday night's HarBowl, coupled with Pittsburgh's prime-time letdown, gave Baltimore a 27-point week-over-week boost in division probability and moved them into the AFC's fifth seed. It was a massive five days for John Harbaugh's group, who are now once again the favorites to capture the AFC North.
- The Bengals will need to emerge from their break healthy, focused and fueled with a relentless urgency if they're to make a mad dash at a wild-card spot and/or AFC North title. With two tilts against the Steelers sandwiching three games against sub-.500 teams (as well as a high-leverage affair with Denver), the Bengals are not out of the running yet (they're just very, very far behind).
| AFC South | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Texans (7-5) | 92% | at JAC, Bye, MIA, at KC, BAL, at TEN |
| 2. Colts (5-7) | 6% | at NE, Bye, at DEN, TEN, at NYG, at JAC |
| 3. Titans (3-8) | 2% | at WAS, JAC, CIN, at IND, at JAC, HOU |
| 4. Jaguars (2-9) | <1% | HOU, at TEN, NYJ, at LV, TEN, at IND |
- Week 12 couldn't have worked out any better for the Titans: They took Round 1 with the Texans, gaining a game in the standings in the process, and watched the Colts crumble at home against Detroit. Tennessee's win also ensured the AFC South won't be decided in Week 13, or potentially even the week after -- if the Titans can hand the Commanders their second home loss in as many weeks.
| AFC West | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Chiefs (10-1) | 97% | LV, LAC, at CLE, HOU, at PIT, at DEN |
| 2. Chargers (7-4) | 2% | at ATL, at KC, TB, DEN, at NE, at LV |
| 3. Broncos (7-5) | 1% | CLE, Bye, IND, at LAC, at CIN, KC |
- The Chargers and Broncos have better division probabilities than some of the other fringe teams listed in this section, and yet the idea of anyone but the Chiefs winning the AFC West seems completely outlandish. That said, I'm all for some anarchy! Kansas City has been living dangerously in recent weeks and is probably due for another slip up or two, perhaps as soon as this Friday. After all, the last passer to defeat Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead is the same one the Raiders plan to start against Kansas City this week. Could you imagine if Aidan O'Connell becomes the first QB to go toe-to-toe with Mahomes on his own turf at least twice (including playoffs) and leave undefeated?
| NFC East | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Eagles (9-2) | 95% | at BAL, CAR, PIT, at WAS, DAL, NYG |
| 2. Commanders (7-5) | 5% | TEN, Bye, at NO, PHI, ATL, at DAL |
| 3. Cowboys (4-7) | <1% | NYG, CIN, at CAR, TB, at PHI, WAS |
- The Commanders entered Week 12 with a roughly one in four chance of winning the East by season's end. After falling to the Cowboys on Sunday, they sit at a disheartening one in 20. They'll have an opportunity to regain some ground in Week 16's rematch with the Eagles; then again, that game might not mean much to the NFC East race at all, should Washington drop its fourth in a row this weekend.
- New York was eliminated from division contention last week and currently holds the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. After this Thursday's game in Dallas, the Giants won't face another NFC East opponent until their regular-season finale in Philly, meaning they don't even have opportunities to play spoiler in the division down the line ... unless, perhaps, the Eagles are still contending for the NFC's No. 1 seed when Week 18 arrives.
| NFC North | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Lions (10-1) | 81% | CHI, GB, BUF, at CHI, at SF, MIN |
| 2. Vikings (9-2) | 15% | ARI, ATL, CHI, at SEA, GB, at DET |
| 3. Packers (8-3) | 3% | MIA, at DET, at SEA, NO, at MIN, CHI |
| 4. Bears (4-7) | 0% | at DET, at SF, at MIN, DET, SEA, at GB |
- With the way Detroit has been dominating the opposition this season, its two-game lead over the Packers feels more like four. But Green Bay will have a chance to eat into the Lions' advantage if it can fend off a scorching Miami team on Thursday night before doing the same to Detroit next Thursday. They'd still need help (and to keep winning, obviously) to mount a true comeback in the North. But a lot can happen over Detroit's final six games, especially when one of those tilts is against the hottest team in the AFC.
- I laid out the Bears' only remaining road to winning the NFC North last week, so I won't rehash it here. Just imagine the least probable path you can -- and then tack on some more chaos.
- If you're a fan of NFC North football and can't remember the last time the division was this good, that's because it never happened before. In fact, the combined .705 winning percentage (31-13) of the four North teams is tied with the 2022 NFC East for the highest of any division through 11 games since at least the 1970 merger. The highest winning percentage by a division for an entire season is .656 (2013 NFC West, 2007 AFC South) -- a mark well within reach of this year's North squads. (Kudos to NFL Media researcher Tony Holzman-Escareno for the sweet pull.)
| NFC South | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Atlanta Falcons (6-5) | 64% | LAC, at MIN, at LV, NYG, at WAS, CAR |
| 2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) | 34% | at CAR, LV, at LAC, at DAL, CAR, NO |
| 3. New Orleans Saints (4-7) | 2% | LAR, at NYG, WAS, at GB, LV, at TB |
| 4. Carolina Panthers (3-8) | <1% | TB, at PHI, DAL, ARI, at TB, at ATL |
- How thankful must Atlanta be to own the season series over Tampa Bay after what the Bucs just did to Tommy DeVito and the Giants on Sunday. While the Falcons have back-to-back games against potential Super Bowl contenders, the Bucs will meet the three-win Panthers and two-win Raiders over the next two weeks. Now, counting W's on a calendar is a recipe for disappointment, but I can promise you Atlanta wishes it could swap schedules with Tampa right now.
| NFC West | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Seahawks (6-5) | 37% | at NYJ, at ARI, GB, MIN, at CHI, at LAR |
| 2. Cardinals (6-5) | 45% | at MIN, SEA, NE, at CAR, at LAR, SF |
| 3. Rams (5-6) | 9% | at NO, BUF, at SF, at NYJ, ARI, SEA |
| 4. 49ers (5-6) | 10% | at BUF, CHI, LAR, at MIA, DET, at ARI |
- The NFC West is a beautiful mess, and it will likely continue to be for the next month and change. There are several division games still to come, with Seattle-Arizona 2.0 up next in Week 14. Although the Cardinals certainly can't look past the 9-2 Vikings this weekend, their rubber match with the Seahawks has the potential to be far more consequential; losing the season series feels like a death knell, given how this race is unfolding.
- The 49ers' once promising season is at significant risk of spiraling out of control, with injuries and losses mounting and a cross-country trip to Buffalo set for Sunday night. The Bills are an NFL-best 32-7 at home since 2020, including a perfect 5-0 mark this season. Kyle Shanahan is going to have to whip up something special to keep his group within ear shot of its division rivals.
Jack Andrade and Dante Koplowitz-Fleming contributed to this story.
