One week in the books, 16 more to go! We're on to Week 2 ... and it's packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher those storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.
DK Metcalf and Co. deploying YAC attack vs. former team
In Week 1, no team gained a higher percentage of their passing production on yards after the catch than the Pittsburgh Steelers, at a whopping 74.6% (182 YAC). New WR1 DK Metcalf, in particular, gained 83 yards after the catch, second-most among wide receivers behind only Zay Flowers (92). He was also particularly effective in the YAC department, racking up 43 yards after catch over expected, which led all wideouts and trailed only Bijan Robinson (44 YACOE) on the week. This made sense in the context of Aaron Rodgers' 4.3 average air yards per attempt, the lowest of any qualified passer on opening weekend, and average time to throw of 2.43 seconds (fourth-quickest). Rodgers threw 30.0% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage and 46.7% of his passes between 0-9 air yards and incredibly did not throw a single deep pass in Sunday's action.
So how will Rodgers and Metcalf match up with the wide receiver's former team? Well, the Seahawks allowed 19 completions on 23 attempts of fewer than 10 air yards to Brock Purdy and the 49ers in Week 1, for a total of 129 yards and a touchdown. Their 8.4% completion percentage over expected allowed and 0.47 expected points added per dropback allowed on these short passes were both bottom six among defenses on opening weekend. Seattle also surrendered the seventh-most yards after catch (130), and while that's partially a reflection on the 49ers' game plan, it shows they're susceptible to the "YAC attack." Plus, this is coming off a 2024 season in which they allowed the second-most yards after catch in the entire league (133 per game).
Fantasy Fallout: If Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf and the rest of the Steelers offense continues to deploy their short-game YAC strategy in Week 2, it has solid potential against the Seahawks. Rodgers was the fantasy QB7 in Week 1 (with four touchdown passes) and Metcalf's 83 receiving yards were 11th among wide receivers, so both are worthy of a start this Sunday.
Week 1 breakout "Indiana Jones" vs. elite Broncos D
Daniel “Indiana” Jones was one of the biggest surprises of Week 1, recording a 75.9% completion rate, a 115.9 passer rating, a pair of rushing touchdowns and 29.48 fantasy points (third-most in the league). But he had it pretty easy against the Dolphins defense. Jones faced pressure on just 24.2% of dropbacks, the third-lowest rate in a game in his career and fourth-lowest rate for any QB on opening weekend. Of course, on the eight dropbacks he was pressured, Jones completed 5 of 6 passes for 74 yards and a touchdown, good for a 157.6 passer rating and 0.87 fantasy points/dropback, both of which led all QBs when pressured in Week 1.
Jones draws a much tougher assignment in Week 2, against a Broncos defense that pressured Cam Ward on 50% of dropbacks (second-highest in Week 1) and sacked Cam Ward a league-high six times. Linebacker Nik Bonitto was a one-man wrecking crew in Week 1, with nine individual QB pressures (tied for most in the league), and NFL Top 100's No. 10 player, CB Patrick Surtain II, did not allow a catch on his lone target, across 34 coverage snaps. This is going to be a real test for Jones, and a huge indicator of rest-of-season fantasy value for him, Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and rookie tight end Tyler Warren. On that note, Warren became the first rookie tight end in NFL history to post at least seven catches and 70 receiving yards in a Week 1 debut, so his ceiling could be incredibly high if Jones continues to excel.
Fantasy Fallout: If you're tempted to start Daniel Jones after picking him up off waivers, exercise caution. This matchup might be the litmus test for his legitimacy as a fantasy option, but he needs to pass that test to inspire real confidence. Avoid Michael Pittman Jr. as well, but start Tyler Warren as a top-tier tight end -- he could be Jones' primary outlet when Denver brings the heat.
Saquon Barkley (still) seeking big play vs. Chiefs
Last season, Saquon Barkley led the NFL with 46 explosive runs (10+ yards) and ranked seventh among running backs with a 13.3% explosive run rate. He hit 20+ miles per hour a whopping 11 times on rushes, more than double Derrick Henry's total in second place (five). However, in Super Bowl LIX against Kansas City, Barkley had just one explosive run (for exactly 10 yards) and zero carries with a max speed of 20+ mph. It was easily his least efficient game of the year, with -48 rush yards over expected, a 16% success rate and -12.5 EPA on rushes (all season lows for Barkley, including playoffs). Now, it's worth noting, Barkley had six catches for 40 yards in the Super Bowl, so he still found ways to contribute to the Eagles' victory. But the Chiefs apparently found an answer to his dominance on the ground (one of the only answers they found in that game).
Fast forward to last weekend. On Thursday night, Barkley logged three explosive runs against the Cowboys, but he also finished with -2.1 rush EPA and averaged -0.1 yards before contact per carry -- his lowest mark as an Eagle. Meanwhile, on Friday night, the Chiefs allowed just two explosive rushes to the Chargers -- one was an 11-yard run by Omarion Hampton and the other was a scramble by Justin Herbert. Hampton averaged -1.7 RYOE per carry against Kansas City, which was fourth-worst among qualified running backs. It's early, but the Chiefs run defense looks like it's picked up right where it left off in the Super Bowl.
Fantasy Fallout: You're never benching Saquon Barkley, but if you're setting expectations or considering him as a DFS play, be wary in this matchup. Also, if Barkley has another "dud" (by his standards) it might be time to consider trading him. Running backs coming off a year with his 2024 volume (378 touches) historically regress quite a bit the following season.
Justin Fields vs. Bills' man-heavy defense
Along with Daniel Jones, Justin Fields had one of the more impressive showings across the league in Week 1 against Pittsburgh. He completed 8.3% of his passes over expectation (fifth-best among qualified passers) and added 11.6 EPA as a passer (seventh). But specifically against man coverage, Fields was superb: he logged a 152.1 passer rating on nine dropbacks against man, completing 5 of 6 passes for 66 yards, including a beauty of a 33-yard touchdown to Garrett Wilson. He also scrambled twice for 10 yards, an area he's always been particularly deadly against man. Over the last four seasons, Fields has averaged 1.26 scramble rush yards per dropback against man coverage. Not only is that the most among all players with 300+ dropbacks, it's nearly 40% more than the next-closest player (Daniel Jones, 0.91) and 70% more than the man in third (Josh Allen, 0.74).
But will any of this matter against the Bills in Week 2? Very likely. Buffalo utilized man coverage on 40.9% of snaps in Week 1, their second-highest mark under defensive coordinator Bobby Babich and the eighth-highest rate in the league. And while Lamar Jackson didn't scramble much in Week 1, he did tag the Bills for 101 yards, one TD and a league-high 156.3 passer rating against their man coverage looks. Jackson totaled 29.36 fantasy points on Sunday night, and Fields is as similar a quarterback as you'll find in the NFL (if far less proven). He has major upside once again in Week 2.
Fantasy Fallout: Get Justin Fields on your fantasy team. If he's available on waivers, snatch him up. If he's on another team, make them an attractive trade offer. He has the potential to be a top-two overall QB again in Week 2 … and potentially all year, if he can continue throwing the ball like he did on opening weekend, and adding rare fantasy value with his legs.
