Six weeks in the books, 11 more to go! We're on to Week 7 … and it's packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher those storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.
Rams zone-heavy downfield D vs. Lawrence, Thomas and Hunter
Through six weeks, the Rams play zone defense at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL and specifically Cover 3 at the fifth-highest rate (39.7%). As a result, they've been extremely good against downfield passing (10+ air yards), allowing a 67.8 passer rating, 44.8% completion rate and a 0.04 EPA/dropback, with just three touchdowns and four interceptions. While keeping offenses corralled underneath, Los Angeles has also allowed just 4.6 yards after catch per reception, seventh-fewest in the league. All told, they've surrendered just 199.0 passing yards per game (ninth-fewest) and seven passing touchdowns in six games (with four interceptions).
None of this bodes particularly well for Trevor Lawrence (or his top receivers) in London on Sunday. Lawrence is coming off a couple of decent fantasy performances against the Chiefs and Seahawks, but his 27.24 points against Kansas City were heavily inflated by 54 yards and two scores on the ground (he had just 9.8 points as a passer). He also has a 66.1 passer rating against Cover 3 this year, with three TDs, three picks and a 54.8% completion rate -- worst among all passers with at least 20 attempts against Cover 3 this year. Meanwhile, Brian Thomas Jr. has finally showed up the last couple weeks, largely thanks to deeper routes and targets. He saw a season-high 15.2 air yards per target in Week 5 against the Chiefs, but that breakout could be in jeopardy if the Rams shut down his downfield prowess. Rookie Travis Hunter has been essentially unplayable for fantasy, despite seeing more of the offensive snaps, including a season-high 77.6% in Week 6. Also, for what it's worth, Lawrence has averaged just 177.7 passing yards per game with three TDs, two INTs and 12.77 fantasy points per game across three career games in Wembley Stadium. The outlook for Jacksonville's offense is riddled with red flags this week.
Fantasy Fallout: If you were considering streaming Trevor Lawrence after a couple strong fantasy outings … reconsider. While you can play Brian Thomas Jr. thanks to his target share, don't be surprised to see a slight step back on Sunday. And Travis Hunter should be on your bench. Period.
Bad news for A.J. Brown, Philly passing game vs. Vikings
The Broncos and Texans' secondaries get a lot of the headlines, but it's the Minnesota Vikings who hold NFL Pro's top spot in pass defense efficiency so far in 2025. They're top five in the metric in just about every context that NFL Pro measures, and they're No. 1 when blitzing and on intermediate passes (among other categories). The only area they haven't been completely lights out is on deep passes, so Jalen Hurts and the Eagles might want to look down the field often on Sunday. Regardless, the only QB to post more than 17 fantasy points against Brian Flores' squad this season was Caleb Williams, and he did it with 58 yard and a touchdown on the ground (just 12.4 points as a passer).
Obviously, Hurts brings that same upside as a rusher, so he should be started in every matchup, no matter how good the defense. But A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are much more concerning. Only two wide receivers have topped nine fantasy points against Minnesota so far -- DK Metcalf and Rome Odunze. Both got there with a touchdown, and 15 of Metcalf's 23.6 points came on a single breakaway play. Otherwise, the Vikings have essentially silenced Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Drake London, DJ Moore and Jerry Jeudy, among others. Instead, they've been something of a "tight end funnel," allowing 6.2 receptions per game to the position (eighth-most in the NFL). With how efficient and effective Dallas Goedert has been, especially in the red zone, you can expect him to carry passing attack once again while Minnesota locks down the wideouts.
Fantasy Fallout: You're starting Jalen Hurts without hesitation, and you might be starting A.J. Brown if you don't have a better option. But their ceiling, and Smith's, is significantly lowered against this defense.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts' ground game vs. Chargers
Through six weeks, Jonathan Taylor leads the entire NFL with 603 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. In a shockingly efficient Colts offense, Taylor has been unstoppable, with a league-high 15 explosive runs and 38 missed tackles forced. While Taylor's 1.3 yards average before contact is decent, his 4.0 yards after contact is exceptional. According to Next Gen Stats, he's already hit 20+ mph on four carries this year. No other player has more than two. The only running back scoring more fantasy points in PPR is Christian McCaffrey -- for obvious, receptions-related reasons.
Now Taylor draws a Chargers defense allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per carry to running backs (4.95). Los Angeles uses light boxes at the fourth-highest rate in the league (55.6%) and are dead last in NFL Pro's rush defense efficiency with light boxes. Taylor unsurprisingly leads the league in rushing yards against light boxes, while averaging 6.4 yards per carry and racking up 75 rush yards over expected. The Bolts are also 31st against rushing out of shotgun and rushing outside the tackles -- Taylor has seen an above-average 51.3% of his rushes out of shotgun and has scored six of his seven rushing TDs outside the tackles this year. All told, the Chargers tend to sell out to defend the pass, which they've been pretty good at it in 2025, but are very beatable on the ground. No one's been beating defenses on the ground better than Taylor. This is setting up to be another field day for fantasy's No. 2 RB.
Fantasy Fallout: Obviously, you're starting Jonathan Taylor no matter the league settings or circumstances, but this is probably another good week to trade for him, play him in DFS or otherwise find ways to get his points in your lineups.
Aaron Rodgers-DK Metcalf YAC attack vs. Bengals
Every once in a while, you get a "best versus worst" matchup that sets all the alarm bells blaring. So far in 2025, Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL in yards after catch per attempt (5.3) and percentage of passing yards after the catch (a towering 71.2%). Despite ranking 25th in total passing yards, he ranks seventh in total YAC. And most of his YAC production comes from DK Metcalf, who leads the NFL with 114 YAC over expected, trails only Puka Nacua (244) in total YAC (234) and is averaging a truly absurd 12.3 YAC per reception. The star receiver scored 19+ fantasy points in each of his last two games (bracketing the Week 5 bye) and has scored a touchdown in four straight.
Now for the worst. The Bengals aren't just allowing the most yards after catch in the entire NFL, they're in a tier of their own at 999 YAC surrendered. The Seahawks in "second-worst" have allowed just 852 and the league median is around 650. Cincinnati has also allowed the most YAC per reception (7.2) and the most YAC over expected per reception (1.8). Five different wide receivers have logged 40+ yards after catch against this defense: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr. and Parker Washington. All five scored at least 12.5 fantasy points in those games. It would be shocking for Metcalf to miss that list in Week 7, and given how productive he's been after the catch, I'd expect him to run rampant over this soft secondary on Thursday night.
Fantasy Fallout: If you have any doubts about starting DK Metcalf this Thursday, let this information wash them away. He's a strong WR2 with legitimate WR1 upside in fantasy. And, believe it or not, I don't think Aaron Rodgers is a terrible stream either, if you're in a pinch.
