Gregg Rosenthal went 8-5 on his predictions for Week 9 of the 2020 NFL season, bringing his total record to 83-48-1. How will he fare in Week 10? His picks are below.
SUNDAY, NOV. 15
Philadelphia Eagles 24, New York Giants 20
The Eagles have played one game since beating the Giants. A rematch so soon should favor the better-coached team, but which team is that? The Eagles are far more talented with Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders on track to return and a stout defensive line well-suited to stop the Giants' steadily improving power run game.
Green Bay Packers 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 17
The Jaguars have the NFL's worst defense and the second-hardest remaining schedule, which is a recipe for 1-15. Their rookie quarterback, Jake Luton, did not play scared last week, but he got away with some turnover-worthy plays that the Packers can capitalize on.
Washington Football Team 24, Detroit Lions 21
Alex Smith transitioned last week from the remarkable story phase of his comeback to the he still looks like an NFL quarterback(!) stage. Now he gets a chance for a win that could start the counting the days phase of the Matt Patricia era.
Cleveland Browns 26, Houston Texans 24
The potential return of Nick Chubb comes just in time for him to face a Texans run defense that has helped ruin Deshaun Watson's season. These teams are close to equal, despite their records, but those records serve as a reminder that the NFL is not all about the quarterback. I trust the Browns' lines and coaches more.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33, Carolina Panthers 27Â
Tampa Bay ranks dead last in Football Outsiders' variance metric, an indication that no one knows which Bucs team will show up. That's a concern against a Panthers offense with many similarities to the Saints attack that just took Tampa apart. I'm still picking talent over scheme because of Carolina's poor pass rush.
Los Angeles Chargers 27, Miami Dolphins 24Â
The Dolphins are incredibly thin at running back. Same story at receiver after Preston Williams' injury. This only further exacerbates the talent deficiency Miami has Sunday, which makes this the toughest game to pick all week. A Fins win would be a monument to how much coaching situational football and special teams matter, but I think Justin Herbert is simply going to play too well to lose one of these weeks -- and he's still the rookie QB I'd roll with in this matchup.
Las Vegas Raiders 27, Denver Broncos 23
Veteran free-agent cast-offs like Devontae Booker and Nelson Agholor making noise is a sign that Jon Gruden's system is working. He's making players better. The Broncos' offense, despite all my high hopes, still plays like less than the sum of its parts, with scant improvement since Drew Lock returned to the lineup.
Buffalo Bills 34, Arizona Cardinals 31Â
The Bills' defense probably is better than the numbers suggest; just check the track record and talent. The Cardinals' defense probably isn't as good as the numbers suggested; just check the opposing quarterbacks Arizona has faced. With John Brown healthy again, the Bills are the last team that a defense short on cornerbacks wants to face.
New Orleans Saints 31, San Francisco 49ers 20
This rematch of a 2019 classic doesn't have the same juice with the Zombie Niners involved. The score prediction could change depending on who plays for San Francisco, but Kyle Shanahan should have more players available after a brutal short week with COVID complications last time out.
Los Angeles Rams 30, Seattle Seahawks 27
Pete Carroll is 2-4 vs. Sean McVay, struggling against L.A. even during the Rams' worst days of December 2019. Add whiz kid Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley to the mix against a Seahawks offensive line trending the wrong way, and the Rams have more ways to win.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 20
Every advanced metric suggests this is a total mismatch. My eyes say that Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense get better each week -- and that Cincy's tied for the best record in the NFL at beating expectations, if you catch what I'm putting down.
Baltimore Ravens 35, New England Patriots 17
This was a nightmare matchup for the Patriots last season, even when they had a strong defense. Now Bill Belichick coaches the 31st-ranked group in football, per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. New England's especially soft against the run, going up against a Ravens team that leads the league in rushing. Expect to see Robert Griffin III by the IVth quarter.
MONDAY, NOV. 16
Minnesota Vikings 24, Chicago Bears 17
Dalvin Cook makes me believe in all the clichés I never did before: making the Vikings' defense better by keeping the unit off the field, improving play-action with his mere presence and wearing down opponents by the fourth quarter. He's giving Alvin Kamara a run for his money as the most valuable non-quarterback skill-position player in the league.
ALREADY COMPLETED
Indianapolis Colts 23, Tennessee Titans 20
Ryan Tannehill is still playing like a top-five quarterback, but his offensive line has quietly fallen apart more each week. That's a problem against a deep, well-coached Colts defensive front in a coaching matchup that has given Mike Vrabel plenty of trouble.
Follow Gregg Rosenthal on Twitter @GreggRosenthal.
