We've made it through Thanksgiving. Congratulations!
Now is the time in the NFL calendar when the haves separate themselves from the have-nots. The playoff-worthy clubs solidify their standing and get rolling into January. The cellar-dwellers begin thinking about the 2026 NFL Draft.
For teams jostling for playoff position, every week is pivotal. One hiccup can cost you a spot or mean a road game in January. The free passes are used up.
As we begin our December journey, let's separate FACT from FICTION with five narratives heading into the stretch run.
1) The Bears will hold onto the NFC's No. 1 seed: FICTION.
Ben Johnson's team took over the catbird seat in the NFC following a demonstrative road win over the defending Super Bowl champions in Philadelphia. After winning just five games last season, Chicago has won five in a row and nine of its past 10, including sweeping the NFC East. The turnaround after a 0-2 start is a credit to Johnson, who was the hottest coaching candidate last offseason.
On the back of an opportunistic defense that leads the NFL with 26 takeaways, and an offense that has found ways to make plays late, the Bears have an effective combination. Johnson's ability to scheme up the run game has been the difference-maker of late. Chicago is gashing teams on the ground with a mauling offensive line that is the most improved unit from last season.
Through 12 games, everything the Bears hoped for in the offseason has come true: Johnson's play-calling and ability to stack plays to keep defenses off balance is impeccable. The offensive line additions have been massive. And the defense has created turnovers in droves.
The negatives, however, will keep them from retaining the top seed.
Caleb Williams has gone through growing pains, sporting the lowest completion percentage among passers with at least 200 attempts (58.1%). At times, Williams makes your jaw drop. At others, he sails a throw eight feet wide. He's still a work-in-progress in Johnson's offense. And that's OK. Johnson knows the passing attack isn't where it needs to be for a deep postseason run. The development this year under the offensive guru will help in the long term, even if there are stubbed toes for drives at a time. It's a credit to the second-year quarterback that he's been able to make game-winning plays late. He's nothing if not a gamer.
The Bears have mastered the close win, with six of their nine victories by five points or fewer. Can they sustain that down the stretch? Can the defense keep forcing key turnovers when the offense stalls?
This was the portion of the slate that was supposed to trip up the Bears. They passed the first two tests against Pittsburgh and Philly. Things continue to ramp up down the stretch with two tilts against Green Bay, a visit to San Francisco, and a home date with the Lions. A regression toward the mean in close losses makes it unlikely Chicago can fend off the likes of the Rams, Seahawks, 49ers or Packers for the top spot.
Even if they don't finish with the first-round bye, the season has already been a smashing success for Johnson, who has the Bears in line for their first playoff appearance since 2020.
2) The Steelers are cooked: FACT.
Things are getting dark in Pittsburgh, with Steelers fans chanting for Mike Tomlin’s firing. Nothing looks good.
The offense under Aaron Rodgers can't move the ball for long stretches, the ground game is inconsistent and the offensive line struggles continue. There is next to no rapport between the 42-year-old quarterback and his receivers. Rodgers sports a 40.7% success rate on his passes, third worst among all QBs with at least 200 attempts, per Next Gen Stats (ahead of only Cam Ward and Joe Flacco). He averages -0.09 EPA per dropback (T-7th worst).
It's an offense that lives in a restricted box. Rodgers has thrown 26.5% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, second most behind only Tua Tagovailoa. It's an offense that relies on dumpoffs to tight ends and running backs to pick up yards. With a battered Rodgers under center and no help coming, it's not something I expect to turn around.
The offensive struggles were predictable. The issues on defense might be even worse for Tomlin. The Steelers have been bullied by running games. It wasn't just the Bills' 249 rushing yards in Week 13. Pittsburgh has allowed 100-plus yards rushing in seven tilts. Despite the heavy investment on that side of the ball, the Steelers rank 20th in scoring defense and 28th in yards allowed per game. Their -0.03 EPA per play is 12th worst in the league. If not for some timely turnovers and sacks, it could be even uglier. If Pittsburgh is truly going to turn the season around, it needs to start with the defense.
Sitting at 6-6, with four of the six losses coming by 10 or more points, Pittsburgh is still alive in a moribund AFC North heading into a virtual must-win in Week 14 against an equally struggling Baltimore squad. This is usually the point when Tomlin rallies the troops and spurs them to a winning record. But this season feels distinctly different. With an old team very much showing its age in December, things are looking dreary for Pittsburgh's hopes of making the postseason, let alone winning its first playoff game since 2017.
3) The Patriots are the best team in the AFC: FICTION.
The defining trait of the 2025 campaign thus far: There are no great teams.
There are a host of good squads, but no great ones that stand out head and shoulders above the rest. Every club is flawed in its own way. Good offenses go cold. Excellent defenses get burned. It's the type of parity the league takes great pride in.
Perhaps no team defines the season more than the New England Patriots. Mike Vrabel's club has mowed down 10 consecutive opponents and enters the bye week at 11-2, one victory ahead of the 10-2 Broncos for the top spot in the AFC.
The Pats have the inside track at the No. 1 seed, but does that make them the best team in the AFC? I remain unconvinced.
There's no denying Drake Maye is playing at an MVP level. The second-year quarterback leads the league with 3,412 passing yards and a 71.5% completion rate. He's not gobbling up completions dinking-and-dunking his way down the field either, ranking second with 8.8 yards per attempt (Sam Darnold leads with 9.0).
The coaching staff has been superb, with Vrabel's crew putting his players in a position to succeed. New England doesn't beat itself and plays with a hair-on-fire ferocity few have matched this season.
Yet, I can't overlook that they have feasted on cupcakes like they're at a five-star bakery. Eight of their 11 wins have come against teams currently sporting losing records. While they blew out a few bad teams -- the Giants, Titans and Browns -- they've also eked out a few victories against lesser opponents. Their most impressive victories came on the road in Buffalo and against a banged-up Tampa Bay team. Clubs don't control their opponents, so New England gets credit for handling its business, but that isn't exactly a sign of greatness.
Also, the roster remains a question. The pass rush goes quiet for stretches, and they currently miss the injured Milton Williams in the middle. The offense moves the ball at will between the 20s but gets stuck at the goal line and in short-yardage situations. The current injuries to the offensive line are a concern. Does this roster still have depth to withstand injuries?
The Patriots still need to prove themselves down the stretch. As with most teams whose best players are in the nascent stages of their careers, there is a lack of evidence that they can maintain their level of play. Unlike Kansas City, Buffalo or Baltimore, there simply isn't the years' worth of proof they can continue to win as the season hits its crescendo. The metrics-based analytics certainly don't love New England as the top squad. Next Gen Stats gives the team a 1.5 team rating, ranking ninth in the conference. ESPN's Football Power Index places them seventh.
While Maye's play makes the argument difficult, at this point, the tomato-can-filled schedule tips the balance for me. Their next two games coming out of the bye will provide a better picture. If they beat Buffalo and Baltimore teams in desperation mode, they'll shut down the questions.
4) Myles Garrett should be DPOY even on a losing team: FACT.
Garrett is having a historic season, generating 19 sacks, which is the most through a player's first 12 games since Reggie White's 21 in 1987. Garrett is on pace for 26 sacks, which would smash the single-season record of 22.5 (shared by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt).
His ability to beat double-teams and pester the quarterback is unrelenting. In addition to his 19 sacks, he has generated 57 QB pressures. While others might have more QB pressures, no one finishes like Garrett. His 5.9% sack rate is by far the best among players with at least 100 pass rush snaps (Josh Sweat No. 2 at 4.1%).
What makes Garrett's season even more impressive is that he's doing it on a team that is often trailing, limiting obvious passing situations that could bolster his sack opportunities. Imagine if the Browns were leading late in games. Case in point, Garrett ranks among the league leaders with an 8.3% run-stop rate.
Perhaps Garrett's play hasn't led to many wins, but that doesn't diminish his utter dominance.
While it doesn't happen often, Defensive Player of the Year winners have come from teams with losing records. Since 2000, it's happened twice. In 2006, Jason Taylor took home the award for a 6-10 Dolphins club after a menacing season in which he destroyed games, generating nine forced fumbles, two interceptions returned for touchdowns and 13.5 sacks. The other came from Strahan's 2001 record-setting 22.5-sack season for the 7-9 Giants. If Garrett smashes that record, he should be a shoo-in regardless of how many wins the Browns tally.
5) The Chiefs' decade-long playoff run is finally coming to an end: FICTION.
I entered this space planning to write a eulogy of the Chiefs' long AFC dominance. The signs are all there for Patrick Mahomes and Co. Kansas City is four games back in the AFC West race and two from a Wild Card spot. The offense comes and goes. The blocking is shaky. The run game a slog. The defense lacks consistent pressure on quarterbacks. Chris Jones is having a down year by his standards. Andy Reid's squad has been undisciplined.
Losers of three of their past four, the 6-6 Chiefs are ripe to fall.
And yet, one thought tugs me back: Who do you trust to keep them out of the postseason?
The division feels out of reach unless Sean Payton's Broncos completely faceplant. But are there three Wild Card contenders you trust to close the door on Mahomes?
Buffalo has been up and down, but it holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City.
The AFC South looks prime to cannibalize itself in the coming weeks. Jacksonville sits atop the division, but it hasn't exactly been steady all season. The Colts are spiraling, dropping three of four, including a loss to the Chiefs. Indy has the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. Houston's defense is amazing, but the offense is middling.
The Chargers look awesome one week, then lay an egg the next. They're also dealing with an injured Justin Herbert playing behind an offensive line glued together with grade school papier-mâché. Los Angeles also has a brutal schedule down the stretch, including a Week 15 date with the Chiefs.
Kansas City's playoff hopes will hang in the balance every week. The two-game deficit nearly ensures they need to win out. Sunday night's game against Houston at Arrowhead is the biggest pivot point. A win would give them a tiebreaker over another team in the hunt. They would then have a chance to avoid a season sweep to the Chargers in Week 15.
The odds aren't in the Chiefs' favor, with Next Gen Stats giving them just a 35% chance to make the playoffs. But I'm not willing to bury Mahomes yet. Houston can try to do that on Sunday night.
