I'm in a 10-team keeper league that allows each owner to retain one player, but you have to give up your first-round pick in return. My best options are Aaron Rodgers, Cedric Benson, Michael Turner and Larry Fitzgerald. - B. Pappas, Newport News, Va.
Michael Fabiano: I have Rodgers ranked fifth on my top 200 list, so he's the player to retain. He's scored more fantasy points than any other quarterback on NFL.com over the last two seasons -- even Drew Brees -- and his 2010 schedule is unbelievably favorable. He'll face the Bears (2), Lions (2), Vikings (2), Giants, Eagles, Dolphins and Falcons among his opponents. All of those teams ranked 13th or worse in terms of allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. Based on the cupcake schedule and a glut of talented players around him, I'm expecting Rodgers to be the fantasy football MVP of the 2010 season.
I read your blog entry about Wes Welker's return from injury. How will his absence affect Randy Moss' fantasy value? Moss seemed to benefit a great deal from Welker's presence on the field, so with the potential for Welker to miss substantial time, I see his draft stock taking a slide. What are your thoughts? - J. Law, Collinsville, Va.
M.F.: Sure, Welker's potential absence is a negative from the standpoint that opposing defenses can focus more attention on Moss. But I still don't see his numbers or value experiencing a major slide. The Patriots still have Tom Brady under center, and he should be more effective with one full season under his belt since reconstructive knee surgery. Moss is also in a contract year, so he'll be a bit more motivated to produce in an effort to earn one more lucrative contract before his NFL career is over. While age is another factor to consider -- Moss is now 33 -- he's still not over the hill. Moss was the second-most productive wideout based on fantasy points in 2009.
I noticed that Jerome Harrison was left off your list of the top 10 fantasy breakout players for next season. Why would you have Jamaal Charles listed and not Harrison? What am I missing? -T. Blaisdell, Cleveland, Ohio
M.F.: Harrison wasn't on my list of breakout players for one simple reason. I am putting him on my list of players to avoid. While he did have a successful three-game stretch at the end of last season, much of Harrison's success came against the Chiefs and Raiders. Not exactly the cream of the crop in terms of run defenses. He also averaged a ridiculous 35 carries in his final three games. That's not going to happen in 2010. If the Browns think Harrison is a featured back, the organization didn't show it during the offseason. Not only did it acquire Peyton Hillis in the Brady Quinn deal, but it also drafted Montario Hardesty. The last reason to avoid Harrison is the schedule. Among his 2010 opponents are the Ravens (2), Steelers (2), Bengals (2), Jets and Jaguars. Those teams were among the toughest for runners to score fantasy points against last season.
I noticed that Brett Favre isn't included in your one-man mock drafts. Is this because you're assuming he won't return, or if he does you don't consider him a as being worth a third-round pick? - M. Kelley, Portland, Ore.
M.F.: Trying to predict what Favre is going to do from one season to the next is like trying to predict the weather in New England. I actually do think he's coming back for another shot at a Super Bowl, but that's just my opinion. Still, I don't see him as being worth a pick in one of the top three rounds of fantasy drafts. While Favre did come off the board in Round 3 of our recent experts league draft, I wouldn't take him that high. I know he was third in fantasy points among quarterbacks last season, but finding that level of success again isn't guaranteed. Do I see him as a No. 1 fantasy option? Yes -- he's ranked eighth at his position on my current board -- but Favre is more of a fourth- to sixth-round pick in leagues with 12 or fewer teams. Aside from the elite quarterbacks, I'd also take Matt Schaub and Tony Romo ahead of the old gunslinger.
How many carries do you project for Shonn Greene now that the Jets have LaDainian Tomlinson? What about DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart? Williams and Stewart are more established running backs, but Greene seems to have more upside. Which one of the three would you take first in a fantasy draft? - L. Holland, Kansas City, Mo.
M.F.: Regardless of Tomlinson's presence in the Jets backfield, I still think Greene will see 300 carries as the top runner for coach Rex Ryan. He has immense upside in the offense and is a threat to rush for double-digit touchdowns. As for the backfield situation in Carolina, I still see Williams as the more valuable fantasy back despite Stewart's late-season success. Before he was injured, Williams was on pace to finish with 79 more carries than Stewart. He'll also remain the top back on the depth chart for coach John Fox. Look for Williams to see around 250 carries while Stewart posts closer to 200. Overall, I'd take Greene, Williams and Stewart, in that order.
Are there any under-the-radar rookies that fantasy owners should be watching during the preseason? I'm in a dynasty league, so rookies are obviously very important to fantasy success. What have you heard about Armanti Edwards? - B. Jeremiah, Lexington, Ky.
M.F.: Edwards has drawn rave reviews at Panthers minicamp, though it seems like Dwayne Jarrett is the favorite to start opposite Steve Smith. Some lesser-known rookies to watch during training camp include Pittsburgh's Jonathan Dwyer, who could push Mewelde Moore as the handcuff for Rashard Mendenhall, and Anthony Dixon, who could finish second on the 49ers depth chart behind Frank Gore. Golden Tate is a deep sleeper, especially with aging veterans T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch ahead of him on the Seahawks depth chart. Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams could both start for the Buccaneers, and Emmanuel Sanders could see more work for the Steelers with Limas Sweed already on injured reserve. Demaryius Thomas is the big-name rookie wideout for the Broncos, but Eric Decker is in the mix as well. Mardy Gilyard, Taylor Price and Jordan Shipley also have dynasty-league appeal.
It seems that Ryan Matthews is getting moved further and further up fantasy rank lists. Should I buy into all the hype and take him ahead of someone like Michael Turner or Gore? I have the seventh overall pick in our 12-team seasonal league. - D. Hughes, Canada.
M.F.: I see Mathews as more of a second- or third-round pick on draft day and not yet on the same level as Turner or Gore. While he did fall victim to the dreaded "Curse of 370" last season, Turner is back at 100 percent and in great physical shape heading into the 2010 campaign. He'll remain the featured back in Atlanta and should see all the goal-line work, so I expect him to rebound. Gore has a favorable schedule and will be running behind a much-improved offensive line, so I'm expecting him to post tremendous fantasy numbers as well. As much as I like Mathews, I still see his two veteran counterparts as being more valuable options in seasonal formats.
I see that you're very high on Kevin Kolb, but I disagree. Both of his starts last season came against bad pass defenses, and he isn't close to the same quarterback as Donovan McNabb. I am a disgruntled Eagles fan, but I still think Kolb is going to be a disappointment. - T. Bullocks, Philadelphia, Pa.
M.F.: You're right about Kolb's two starts last season. One of them came against the Saints in a contest that saw him throw the football 51 times in an effort to erase an early deficit. The other was against the Chiefs, who fielded one of the league's worst defenses. But all the components are in place for Kolb to find success, regardless of the opponent. The Eagles will run a more traditional West Coast offense in 2010, as Kolb's accurate arm will be well utilized on slant routes and curls. Of course, the Eagles won't be shy about going vertical with playmakers like DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin either. Kolb also has a favorable slate of games ahead of him, facing the Giants (2), Bears, Lions, Vikings, Jaguars, Titans and Falcons. Those teams all struggled to limit the fantasy production of quarterbacks in 2009. As an Eagles fan you might not like the deal that sent McNabb to the Redskins, but as a fantasy owner you should love the sort of potential Kolb brings to the table.
What sort of numbers do you project for Calvin Johnson next season? - D. Reed, Canada
M.F.: Outside of Matt Forte, Johnson might have been the biggest disappointment in fantasy football in 2009. Things should turn for the better this season, though, as the man called "Megatron" is past his knee issues and now has Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler to help draw coverage from opposing defenses. Don't be shocked if Johnson posts the same sort of numbers he had during his breakout fantasy season of 2008. I think he'll post 70 catches, 1,200 yards and eight to 10 touchdowns.
I'm in a 14-team keeper league with individual defensive players, and we are in Round 3 of our rookie draft. My first three picks have been Ryan Mathews, Rolando McClain and Earl Thomas. I need another offensive player, and the best options on the board are Jimmy Clausen, Brandon LaFell, Mike Williams, Andre Roberts, Gilyard and Decker. Which player makes the most sense at this point? - B. Lang, Germany
M.F.: Williams has the best chance to make an immediate fantasy impact, as reports out of Tampa Bay suggest he'll start opposite Arrelious Benn for coach Raheem Morris. Another player to consider is WR Taylor Price, who could have some long-term value with the Patriots if the team decides not to re-sign Randy Moss. The Ohio product has good speed and route-running skills.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com. Have a burning question for Michael on anything fantasy football related? Leave it in our comments section or send it to **AskFabiano@nfl.com**!
