The rise and fall of franchises in the NFL is constant and inevitable, and it's thanks in no small part to the balancing effects of the salary cap and free agency. For every sudden ascension like the one we saw from the 2024 Washington Commanders, there is a sudden decline like the one experienced by the San Francisco 49ers last season. When March rolls around, every team strives to get better, but a few are bound to lose a step.
Here's a look at the six franchises with the toughest tasks ahead of them in the 2025 free agency period. Before we get there, though, here are a pair of teams that just missed the top six and earned the honorable mention label.
NOTE: All salary cap figures are from Over The Cap and are current as of 9 a.m. ET on Monday, Feb. 10.
Honorable mention
The Commanders have an absurd 28 unrestricted free agents heading into March, per Over The Cap, including strong defensive contributors like Bobby Wagner, Jeremy Chinn, Benjamin St-Juste, Noah Igbinoghene and Dante Fowler Jr., tight end Zach Ertz and essentially every WR outside of Terry McLaurin. It will be extremely tough to bring the whole band back. However, Washington has the advantage of a rookie-contract QB and a whopping $78.1 million in cap space (third-most in the league). Even if the team looks much different in 2025, it should be just as competitive if not better with the right offseason moves.
The Saints currently sit a monstrous $54.1 million over the cap for 2025 (worst in the league), leaving very little wiggle room for improvement this offseason. They have plenty of needs, too. The good news -- and the reason they remain an honorable mention selection -- is that they’re not set to lose all that much with impending free agents. Chase Young, Will Harris and Juwan Johnson are the most notable names, and that’s not exactly an All-Pro hit list. The Saints will need to flash some fancy footwork to get under the cap again in 2025 -- and they likely won’t have the most lucrative offseason in the league -- but this is more or less what we’ve come to expect from the team.
Top 6
Salary cap space: $58 million
The Vikings have a metric ton of valuable players headed into unrestricted free agency. The left side of their offensive line for the entire second half of the season -- midseason tackle acquisition Cam Robinson and guard Dalton Risner -- are impending UFAs. Productive running back Aaron Jones signed a one-year deal in 2024 and could be gone. The defense could be absolutely gutted with Harrison Smith, Byron Murphy, Stephon Gilmore, Camryn Bynum, Jonathan Bullard, Shaquill Griffin and Jerry Tillery, among others, all on expiring contracts.
The biggest question: What do they do at quarterback? If they want to bring back Pro Bowler and midseason MVP candidate Sam Darnold, it’s going to cost them. And with J.J. McCarthy, the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, waiting in the wings, they could save a ton of money by letting Darnold walk. But that’s a tough call with McCarthy returning from a serious knee injury and after Darnold was resplendent for most of the year.
The good news for Minnesota is that it’s in decent shape on the cap, with $58 million in space, seventh-most in the league. That space is going to tighten up real quick, and they will face some difficult decisions to maintain a roster capable of competing in the NFC North.
Salary cap space: $20.9 million
When your starting point for financial considerations is a 41-year-old quarterback who could leave you with a $49 million dead-cap hit, things are bound to get messy. Yes, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets appear headed for a split, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport. Even if the Jets sort that out successfully, their roster is littered with both youngsters and vets on short-term-deals who will hit free agency this offseason.
D.J. Reed, Javon Kinlaw and Jamien Sherwood are all sub-30-year-old free agents likely hunting significant contracts, while veterans Solomon Thomas, Jalen Mills and Haason Reddick may be gone after a disappointing 2024 season. Aging tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses are also on expiring deals and could leave very large holes on the ends of the O-line. And there’s the potentially looming extensions for Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall -- all studs at their positions who could be due top-tier money sooner rather than later.
With just over $20 million in cap space (bottom half of the league) and uncertainty at a lot of spots, this could be a make-or-break year for the future of Gang Green.
Salary cap space: $48.2 million
That amount of cap space -- top 10 in the league -- should theoretically put the 49ers in good shape for 2025. The problems come from a massive list of impending free agents and a looming extension for Brock Purdy, who figures to make top-tier money after working three years on a seventh-round salary. In particular, the San Francisco defense is facing a veritable exodus, with Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, Charvarius Ward, Dre Greenlaw and Isaac Yiadom all set to be free agents this March. Additionally, starting guard Aaron Banks is slated to hit the market.
Depending on how San Francisco structures Purdy’s contract, it could put the front office in a major bind when attempting to maintain a Super Bowl-caliber roster. It’s also not impossible they’ll need to extend George Kittle -- entering a contract year -- as one of the highest-paid tight ends in the league. They are also expected to explore the trade market for star receiver Deebo Samuel this offseason, per Rapoport.
The Niners can’t afford to get worse on either side of the ball if they want to compete for NFC championships again, but they may not be able to afford much else this offseason. GM John Lynch and Co. will likely need to get creative to make it through March in one piece.
Salary cap space: -$2.8 million
After signing Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to massive contract extensions last fall, the Cowboys got seven wins and another disappointing season out of it. Now they’re sitting roughly even on cap space, coming off their first losing record since 2020 and staring at a potential Micah Parsons extension that should make him the highest-paid defender in football. With the meteoric rise of Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, they’re also suddenly competing in a division featuring NFC runner-up Washington and the Super Bowl-champion Eagles.
Meanwhile, defensive vets Demarcus Lawrence, Eric Kendricks, Jourdan Lewis and Osa Odighizuwa are all due to hit free agency this spring, as is offensive line mainstay Zack Martin (who could hang the cleats up for good). They’ve also struggled to find a reliable run game -- missing out on the Derrick Henry sweepstakes last free agency period -- or a secondary receiver behind Lamb, with Brandin Cooks also on the list of impending departures. With things as they are, it looks like there is a very tall task facing the front office and new head coach Brian Schottenheimer in 2025.
Salary cap space: -$11.1 million
The Falcons are in very bad cap shape, fifth-worst in the league. They have a ton of money tied up in Kirk Cousins, who was benched late in the 2024 season for Michael Penix Jr. Cousins was signed to give this team a short-term window to compete for the Super Bowl, but now Atlanta appears to be deciding between making Cousins the highest-paid backup ever or taking the cap hit that comes with moving on from him.
Further complicating matters, defensive stars Justin Simmons, Mike Hughes and Matthew Judon are all due to become unrestricted free agents (and Dee Alford is a restricted free agent) in March. On top of all that, Atlanta might have difficult extension decisions to make in the near future with Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Tyler Allgeier -- if it intends to keep a decent core of young weapons on hand for Penix. If the Falcons can’t figure out the money and end up gutting the roster to start a rebuild, it’s likely going to be a painful process for a couple years.
Salary cap space: -$11.6 million
Like the Falcons, the Miami Dolphins are coming off a disappointingly “mid” season and are a concerning $11-plus million in the red. They’ve stalled out somewhere in the middle of the AFC, coming off a fifth straight season with somewhere between eight to eleven wins and zero playoff success, and they’re in big trouble on the impending free agents front.
Defensive stars Jordan Poyer, Jevon Holland, Emmanuel Ogbah and Calais Campbell are all on expiring contracts. Full-time starting offensive linemen Robert Jones and Liam Eichenberg are in the same boat. This franchise cannot just return some semblance of the 2024 roster if it wants to climb the ladder in the AFC. As Tyreek Hill pointed out in his passionate postseason memorandum on the state of the team, the Dolphins need to “add some [expletive] dogs,” if they want to fix this stretch of late-season failure.
Those “dogs” are going to be expensive, and Miami might not have the space to pay for them. Head coach Mike McDaniel and GM Chris Grier are both returning for 2025, but this squad could remain lost in the quagmire of the wild-card race without some inspired moves in the months ahead.
