Cases for/against top eight NFL MVP candidates; who's up/down entering Week 15?

Why he could win: The Rams quarterback is enjoying the best season of his 17-year career, and he’s been the front-runner for this award for most of the past few weeks. Stafford rebounded from a three-turnover performance in a Week 13 loss to Carolina by throwing three touchdown passes in a 45-17 win over Arizona. Stafford now leads the league with 35 touchdown passes and he’s tossed just four interceptions. He also has led his team to victories over two of the league’s best defenses -- Houston and Seattle -- and the Rams still have marquee matchups coming in the next two weeks (against the Lions and Seahawks). The sympathy vote is in play here as well. At 37, the only thing Stafford hasn’t done in his Hall of Fame career is win the MVP award. This might very well be his last great shot.

Why he couldn’t: That loss to the Panthers was rough. It opened the door for Maye to surge into the lead in this race, and the New England quarterback has a strong candidacy. Those games against the Lions and the Seahawks also will be cage matches. Both teams rank in the top 10 in the league in sacks, and they’ll be eager to get after Stafford. Another game or two like he had in Carolina would hurt him immensely. 

Final verdict: Stafford was running away with this award at one point, and for good reason. He was trending toward the type of season that makes it easy for voters to hand him the trophy. It feels like that won’t be forgotten if the Rams keep rolling. He has more weapons than Maye, and the old guy narrative will matter in the end.

Why he could win: The Patriots have been one of the best stories in the NFL this season, largely because Maye has grown up in a hurry. The second-year quarterback entered his Week 14 bye as the league’s leader in passer rating (111.9), completion percentage (71.5) and passing yards (3,412). Maye also has thrown 23 touchdown passes with just six interceptions as New England has produced an 11-2 record. There are other reasons to explain the Patriots’ success -- including the hiring of Mike Vrabel as head coach and a vastly improved defense -- but Maye’s maturation as a true franchise quarterback is what makes this season feel like the start of another special era within that franchise.  

Why he couldn’t: New England’s last-place schedule is a common place to start when it comes to knocking this team’s success. It hasn’t given Maye that many signature moments to sell voters on his dominance. That said, the ones he has created -- like in the Patriots’ Week 5 win over Buffalo -- certainly resonate. The first guy on the list also has some strong credentials when it comes to winning this award.

Final verdict: Maye’s chances of winning this award come down to the next two weeks. He’ll face the Bills this coming Sunday and the Ravens the following week. If he plays well and beats Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, the last two MVP winners, then he could win this award.

Why he could win: This is the time of year when Allen puts that familiar cape on and starts producing feats that drop jaws. He scored four touchdowns in Sunday’s 39-34 win over Cincinnati, including a 40-yard TD run in the fourth quarter when the Bengals had control of the game. Allen also produced six touchdowns three weeks earlier in a win over Tampa Bay. We realized a long time ago that Buffalo’s defense isn’t anything close to the reliable unit we’ve come to expect under head coach Sean McDermott. That means Buffalo must win by relying more on shootouts, which is something Allen does as well as any quarterback in the league.

Why he couldn’t: The great thing about winning the MVP is that it marks your place in history. The bad thing is that previous winners generally must do a hell of a lot more to win it a second time. Allen is on pace to have a better statistical season than he did during his 2024 MVP campaign -- he should finish with more passing yards, rushing yards and touchdowns -- but man, he’s had some flops. He had two turnovers in an upset loss to Miami and two more (to go along with eight sacks) in a loss to Houston. Allen had six interceptions last year. He already has 10 this year.

Final verdict: Allen could make some noise if the Bills beat the Patriots and Eagles in the final four weeks of the season. Those are high-profile games against teams with strong defenses. If he can’t do that, then he’s going to have a hard time turning a two-man race into a three-man competition.

Why he could win: Love has gotten hot at the right time for the Packers. The same player who went three straight weeks without even surpassing 200 passing yards now has thrown seven touchdown passes and only one interception in his last two games. Those efforts also resulted in huge wins against Detroit and Chicago that moved Green Bay into first place in the NFC North. There’s been a lot of talk about what Love is and isn’t. What can’t be denied this season is that he’s played his best games on major platforms. He has dominated on Sunday Night Football (with six total touchdown passes and no interceptions in two games), and he threw four touchdown passes against the Lions on Thanksgiving. People remember those moments, especially when you have 22 touchdown passes and four interceptions on the year.

Why he couldn’t: It’s never felt like people are completely in love with Love. For every great night he has, there also are plenty of stretches when he’s not making great decisions and playing inconsistently. He was fairly pedestrian in the Packers' three losses, including upsets at home to Cleveland and Carolina.

Final verdict: Love has some high-profile opportunities coming up -- against the Broncos, Bears and Ravens -- but he’s a longshot at best. 

Why he could win: Prescott has been playing at an MVP-level for this entire season. He’s been leading the league’s best offense, and the Cowboys fought their way back into playoff contention after they produced a 3-5-1 record through nine games. Prescott entered Week 14 ranked second in passing yards while tied for second in touchdown passes. As much as the Cowboys defense improved after owner Jerry Jones made a couple midseason trades for defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson, it’s fair to wonder where this team would’ve been if Prescott hadn’t been playing out of his mind. All Dallas had going for itself through the first half of the season was that electric offense.

Why he couldn’t: The Cowboys’ Thursday night loss in Detroit ruined whatever hopes Prescott had of making a push for this award. The chances of Dallas making the playoffs are slim at best and winning MVP is highly unlikely if your team is watching the postseason from home.

Final verdict: Prescott could’ve built a case if the Cowboys went on a run to make the playoffs. It’s almost impossible to see that happening now.

Why he could win: Taylor has been the best running back in football all year. He leads the league in rushing and touchdowns, and he’s a major reason why quarterback Daniel Jones was resurrecting his career with the upstart Colts. Now that Jones sustained a serious Achilles injury in Sunday’s loss to Jacksonville, all of the Colts’ playoff hopes hinge on Taylor going crazy.

Why he couldn’t: For all his greatness this year, Taylor has gone three straight games without reaching 100 rushing yards. His candidacy sounded much better when he was trending toward a 2,000-yard season.

Final verdict: He’s done. So are the Colts.

Why he could win: Smith-Njigba has a chance to break the league’s single-season record for receiving yards. He’s produced eight games with at least 100 yards, and his emergence has been crucial to the success quarterback Sam Darnold has enjoyed in his first season in Seattle. To put this into perspective, Smith-Njigba has 121 targets this year. Cooper Kupp is the next closest on the team with 53.

Why he couldn’t: It’s always an uphill battle for a wide receiver to push into this conversation. Smith-Njigba also has cooled off. He has 115 receiving yards in his last two games.

Final verdict: He would need 2,000 receiving yards to be a real contender. He needs to average 143 yards per game over the final four games. The idea was fun while it lasted.

Why he could win: Garrett could end up being the most dominant player in football by the end of this season. He already has 20 sacks and he’s well within reach of the NFL's single-season record of 22.5. It’s a real possibility that he ends up with something like 25, which is crazy to think for a player who is always the No. 1 concern for opposing offenses.

Why he couldn’t: The Browns still sit at 3-10 despite all those sacks. That tells you everything you need to know. 

Final verdict: Garrett is a no-brainer for Defensive Player of the Year. That’s where it ends.

The Bills defense has played better in the past two weeks, and Benford has plenty to do with that. He produced one of the best defensive plays of the year in Sunday’s 39-34 win over Cincinnati when he blitzed midway through the fourth quarter, jumped to snare a Joe Burrow pass and then raced 63 yards for a touchdown. That play put Buffalo ahead in that game. It also was the second time Benford shifted the momentum in a victory in as many weeks, as his 17-yard fumble return for a touchdown against Pittsburgh in Week 13 gave Buffalo a third-quarter lead in that contest. There’s been a lot of justifiable criticism of the Bills defense this year. Benford is helping to change that perception.

Detroit faced a major challenge in a Thursday night matchup with the Cowboys, who possessed one of the hottest offenses in football. The Lions responded by showing people why they’ve won the NFC North the last two seasons. Detroit sacked Dak Prescott five times -- the Lions only had four sacks in their previous four games -- and pressured him on 20 pass attempts. This is a defense that already had lost cornerback Terrion Arnold to a season-ending injury and will now be without safety Brian Branch, who tore his Achilles in that win over Dallas. In other words, the Lions defense displayed the kind of grit that this franchise always preaches. 

It’s hard to gain 100 yards against the Cleveland Browns defense. Pollard is the second player to do it this season, as he gained 161 rush yards and scored on runs of 65 and 32 yards. Yes, the Titans are a two-win team that just beat a three-win team. But there aren’t many other chances for Tennessee to be represented in this space.

The Buccaneers find themselves in a real fight for the NFC South title because their defense continues to disappoint. New Orleans didn’t have a huge day in Tampa’s Bay’s 24-20 loss -- the Saints finished with 260 total yards -- but rookie quarterback Tyler Shough made enough plays to help his team win. He threw for 144 yards while also running for another 55 yards and two touchdowns in a game that reminded people of how hard it is for Tampa Bay to shut teams down. Remember, the Buccaneers gave up 106 total points in their three previous losses. It’s one thing when they’re struggling to contain star quarterbacks like New England’s Drake Maye, Buffalo’s Josh Allen and the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford in those other defeats. Dropping a game to the lowly Saints at such a critical juncture is unacceptable.

The Falcons' head coach has to be feeling the heat under his seat after Sunday’s 37-9 loss to Seattle. Atlanta has lost seven of its last eight games, and one of those defeats came at the hands of the lowly New York Jets a week ago. Sure, it hurts that the Falcons lost quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to a season-ending knee injury, but things weren’t going well before that. This is the second straight year that Atlanta has disappointed. You have to wonder if Morris gets a third season to turn this team around. 

Kansas City’s best wide receiver has turned into a major problem in critical moments. Rice had a brutal drop on fourth-and-4 late in Sunday's loss to Houston. This comes after Rice had a drop on third down in the fourth quarter of Kansas City's Thanksgiving Day loss to Dallas and had two drops in a loss to Denver in Week 11. See a trend here? Unfortunately for the Chiefs, Rice was the player who was supposed to supplant Travis Kelce (who had two drops himself on Sunday) as the top target in this offense. They’re still waiting for that to happen.

New England announced itself as a serious threat in the AFC when it beat Buffalo in Week 5. Now comes the game when the Patriots can officially shut the door on the Bills’ ability to stay in the race for the AFC East title. New England enters the contest with a 10-game winning streak and a ton of rest coming off a bye. The Bills are still relying heavily on the brilliance of quarterback Josh Allen and running back James Cook, but they’re also receiving more contributions from a defense that has underwhelmed for most of this season. It’s been five seasons since somebody other than Buffalo won this division. For a team that’s heard plenty about how soft its schedule has been, this is the time for New England to send another message to the rest of the league.