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Anyone who declares an ironclad understanding of the NFL landscape is just begging to have the rug pulled from beneath their feet. That's been especially true this season, when eventual flops like the Colts and Bucs masqueraded as potential front-runners, while late risers like the Texans looked cooked early on. The first weekend of playoff games was no different, with all but two games coming down to the final moments -- throwing the specifics of our round-by-round postseason forecast into disarray (though, in our defense, the big-picture assessment is still in decent shape).
So what are we doing here? Why, in an environment that makes a mockery of the very concept of certainty, did we dare assemble a confidence ranking of the remaining postseason participants? Well, there is one thing that has begun to crystallize: each team's potential path to the Lombardi Trophy, with the top-seeded squads in each conference (the Broncos and Seahawks) joining the fray for the Divisional Round of the playoffs this weekend. Yes, any of the eight groups below can still win it all, but with six teams having been discarded from the race, we can at least begin to think a little more clearly about the survivors' chances of completing their journeys.
Each of the editors behind NFL.com's weekly game picks column (Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr) ranked every team still in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy according to one specific criteria: Who do we think is most likely to end up as the last team standing? Our hierarchies were combined to form the list below, presented in reverse order.
NOTE: The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Jan. 13.
Total confidence score: 7 pts (of a possible 40)
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: at Eagles (23-19)
- Divisional Round: at Seahawks (Sat., Jan. 17 | 8 p.m. ET | FOX, NFL+ )
- Conference Championship: at Bears/Rams
Super Bowl odds: +1900
Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh have deftly navigated an injury-plagued season to capture 13 total wins and a spot in the Divisional Round. They’re my respective picks for Coach of the Year and Assistant Coach of the Year. So don't take San Francisco’s spot in our ranking as an indictment of the staff or a minimization of the players’ performances to this point. It's merely an honest assessment of the Niners' current circumstance: Down multiple star contributors on both sides of the ball, they have the smallest margin for error of any surviving team. Even if this banged-up squad, playing on short rest, can win at No. 1-seeded Seattle on Saturday, it still then would have to beat either the Bears or the Rams -- two clubs that posed major challenges for San Francisco during the second half of the season -- on the road before it can even clinch a date with the AFC champion in the Super Bowl. At least that game would be at home. If any of these eight remaining clubs is equipped to overcome such steep odds, it’s Shanahan’s gritty outfit. But performing near perfection in three straight matchups -- with so many missing pieces -- seems like too much to ask. As Gennaro said while we were discussing our ballots, the Niners should receive two Lombardi Trophies if they’re able to get across the finish line.
-- Ali Bhanpuri
Total confidence score: 12 pts (of a possible 40)
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: BYE
- Divisional Round: vs. Bills (Sat., Jan. 17 | 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS, NFL+ )
- Conference Championship: vs. Patriots/Texans
Super Bowl odds: +700
This probably seems pretty low for a team that lost three games all year and gripped the top spot in the AFC standings for the final five weeks of the regular season. Their defense is a force (fifth in the NFL in EPA per play in the regular season), and their offense is respectable (10th in EPA per play). So what gives? Well, their schedule to date featured just six games against playoff-qualifying opponents, including two of their losses -- and it's not like they rampaged through the year, compiling a league-high 11 one-score wins and a point differential (+90) that stands below the rest of the surviving AFC field (+170 for the Patriots, +116 for the Bills and +109 for the Texans). Then there's Bo Nix, who didn't exactly dazzle down the stretch, throwing more TD passes than picks in two of his last nine games leading into his second career postseason start. The advantages of being the No. 1 seed are real, but can Denver rip off another winning streak against more dominant, experienced opponents, starting this weekend with the Bills? We have to pencil in a big, fat "TBD" for now, which is why the Broncos sit here.
-- Tom Blair
Total confidence score: 15 pts (of a possible 40)
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: vs. Packers (31-27)
- Divisional Round: vs. Rams (Sun., Jan. 18 | 6:30 p.m. ET | NBC, NFL+ )
- Conference Championship: at Seahawks/vs. 49ers
Super Bowl odds: +1600
Back in Week 8, the Bears were blown out, 30-16, by Tyler Huntley and the Ravens in Baltimore. They've been in every game since, with all three losses in that span coming by 7 points or less. Chicago's made a habit of obliterating deficits in an instant, thanks to the proven ability of Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson to get into a sudden groove, plus the defense's preternatural knack for creating takeaways (though, encouragingly, the team did not need to force a single turnover in Saturday's delirious wild-card win over the Packers). Can the Bears win against anyone? Sure -- I personally ranked them higher than my colleagues in large part because I'm a sucker for swashbuckling overachievers, and they've demonstrated the kind of never-say-die swagger that can carry a team far in a single-elimination tournament. But I also have to acknowledge that this is not exactly the most rock-solid formula for postseason success, especially with this particular path including a fifth-seeded Rams team that played much of the season like a No. 1, followed by either the Seahawks' suffocating D or a rematch of Week 17's intense defeat to the Niners. (And losing Ozzy Trapilo and T.J. Edwards won't make things any easier.) After all, one can't mount a comeback without first falling behind, and Chicago has a tendency to give up yards (6.0 per play, 29th in the NFL) and points (25.4 per game, 23rd) in bunches. The possibility of magic keeps the Bears from the bottom; the threat of being steamrolled by a more established power keeps them from rising higher.
-- Tom Blair
Total confidence score: 18 pts (of a possible 40)
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: at Steelers (30-6)
- Divisional Round: at Patriots (Sun., Jan. 18 | 3 p.m. ET | ESPN, ABC, NFL+ )
- Conference Championship: at Broncos/vs. Bills
Super Bowl odds: +850
After another uneven performance from C.J. Stroud and Co. on Wild Card Weekend, with Pro Bowl receiver Nico Collins suffering a concussion, Houston’s offense does not breed confidence. The defense, on the other hand, commands respect across the globe -- at least according to Calen Bullock.
"Shoot, I think everybody knows we are the best defense," the Texans safety said after his unit completely stifled Pittsburgh in Monday's 30-6 win, which was highlighted by a pair of defensive touchdowns, including one by Bullock himself. "The whole world knows that."
Citizens of Seattle and Denver might feel differently, but Bullock’s bullishness certainly isn’t unfounded. Houston finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in total defense and No. 2 in scoring D (17.4 ppg, just behind Seattle’s top mark of 17.2). The Texans arguably have the best edge-rushing duo (Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter) and cornerback combo (Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter) in the league. Furthermore, heavy hitters Azeez Al-Shaair and Jalen Pitre set the tone for a group that flies to the football like a pack of rabid DOGS. If defense really does win championships, Houston’s a top-tier contender.
-- Gennaro Filice
Total confidence score: 26 pts (of a possible 40)
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: vs. Chargers (16-3)
- Divisional Round: vs. Texans/Steelers (Sun., Jan. 18 | 3 p.m. | ESPN, ABC, NFL+ )
- Conference Championship: at Broncos/vs. Bills
Super Bowl odds: +600
The Patriots are arguably the most well-rounded team remaining in the AFC field. They are extremely well-coached, operate at a high level in all three phases, control time of possession and, of course, are led by an MVP-caliber quarterback. They are also merciless, boasting the third-best point differential of the regular season (+10.0 per game) and tying Seattle for the most wins by a three-score margin (6). Mike Vrabel’s rugged group epitomizes the football axiom control what you can control. However, one factor that was not in the Pats’ control, their schedule, has been the source of their biggest question mark: Is their impressive win total merely the result of having played the NFL’s easiest slate (.391)? We generally don’t think so. But the Patriots are just 2-2 against teams with a winning record (including Sunday’s playoff victory over the beat-up Bolts). That lingering unknown and the uncertainty surrounding Christian Gonzalez’s availability for Sunday (concussion), makes us slightly more deferential to the chances of the unflappable Josh Allen and his battle-tested Bills -- who won at Foxborough in mid-December -- finishing as conference champions. After all, No. 17’s playoff bonafides are not up for debate.
-- Ali Bhanpuri
Total confidence score: 27 pts (of a possible 40)
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: at Jaguars (27-24)
- Divisional Round: at Broncos (Sat., Jan. 17 | 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS, NFL+ )
- Conference Championship: at Patriots/Texans
Super Bowl odds: +650
In a year where there is no truly dominant force in the AFC, the Bills -- despite being the sixth seed -- lead our ranking among the conference’s four teams remaining in the playoffs. In the interest of full disclosure, I had the Patriots one spot higher than Buffalo on my personal ballot, largely because the Bills will not play at home again this season. It’s been 20 years since an AFC team won three straight road games to make it to the Super Bowl (2005 Steelers). We’ve seen such a run more recently in the NFC (2020 Buccaneers), but still, it’s a tall task for any squad. The great equalizer, of course, is Josh Allen. Even a banged-up version of the reigning MVP is awfully tough to beat, as the Jaguars just learned. And the news this week of DT Ed Oliver’s potential return from injury had to be sweet music to the ears of Bills Mafia. If Allen keeps doing his thing and Sean McDermott gets his best defensive player back, the Lombardi might not be so elusive for Buffalo anymore.
-- Dan Parr
Total confidence score: 36 pts (of a possible 40)
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: at Panthers (34-31)
- Divisional Round: at Bears (Sun., Jan. 18 | 6:30 p.m. ET | NBC, NFL+ )
- Conference Championship: at Seahawks/vs. 49ers
Super Bowl odds: +320
As the only remaining team in the field with a Super Bowl-winning head coach and quarterback, Los Angeles has skins on the wall where it matters most. The Rams also boast a balanced offense and a potent pass rush, two more key ingredients to a winning postseason formula. And compared to some of the other battered rosters in the Divisional Round, L.A. is in a pretty decent place health-wise. So, what are the Rams’ biggest concerns? The third level of the defense (coverage is less than sticky) and third phase of the game (special teams have been a disaster). Not to mention, life on the road. The No. 5 seed just eked out a win at Carolina, and now the team from Southern California must brave the winter elements in Chicago. If the Rams pass that test on Sunday, they’ll face a rubber match against a division rival -- whoever wins 49ers-Seahawks -- with another roadie if Seattle advances. But in a wide-open postseason, Los Angeles still feels like the most well-rounded team, with savvy coach Sean McVay and MVP front-runner Matthew Stafford possessing the kind of invaluable experience that should travel.
-- Gennaro Filice
Total confidence score: 39 pts (of a possible 40)
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: BYE
- Divisional Round: vs. 49ers (Sat., Jan. 17 | 8 p.m. ET | FOX, NFL+ )
- Conference Championship: vs. Bears/Rams
Super Bowl odds: +270
Seattle's road got slightly easier when the 49ers upset the Eagles over the weekend. The NFC's top seed now hosts a beat-up San Francisco outfit that just lost another star player (George Kittle) to injury, and Seattle overpowered that division foe in Week 18. Having to then face either Los Angeles or Chicago -- both of whom looked real iffy at times on Wild Card Weekend -- in Seattle to advance to the Super Bowl feels more than ideal. Plus, the Seahawks boast the NFL's top scoring defense, allowing 17.2 points per game, and that unit is as trustworthy as any remaining in the field. The offense has continually proven it can handle any situation and win with the run game behind Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet or by leaning on Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the aerial attack. I still find myself wanting to doubt Darnold after last year's catastrophe, but he keeps proving me wrong for the better. Now it feels that even if he's not at his best, this TEAM is good enough to win it all.
-- Brooke Cersosimo
