Fantasy football: Ten players who'll out/underperform projections in NFL Week 15

PROJECTED POINTS: 15.2

Michelle: Overall, it has not been a fun season for Richardson or his fantasy managers. However, he has stepped up his game since getting the starting job back after his multi-week benching. Richardson has scored at least 21 fantasy points in two of his last three games, notching three passing touchdowns and three rushing TDs in that span. Denver's defense can be scary, but in three of its last five games, the unit has allowed Patrick Mahomes (16.5), Lamar Jackson (23.6), and Jameis Winston (33.0) to all hit at least 16 fantasy points. Despite the Broncos picking off Winston three times in Week 13, he still had a monster fantasy performance against them -- in their own home -- putting up nearly 500 passing yards and throwing for four touchdowns. Richardson has a similar passing play style to Winston: He lives and dies on the deep ball.

PROJECTED POINTS: 15.3

Matt: Here's a list of all the players with at least 23 fantasy points in each of the last four weeks: Tua Tagovailoa. End of list. After a few slow games off his return from a concussion, Tagovailoa has now averaged 325 passing yards and thrown 11 touchdowns with zero interceptions over the last month. With De'Von Achane in the backfield and Jonnu Smith breaking out in Miami -- on top of the dynamic receiving duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle -- Tagovailoa might have the best full set of offensive weaponry in the league.

Outside of Week 17, when the Dolphins will face a tough Browns defense in Cleveland weather, Tua is a must-start quarterback who should crush this kind of projection, week in and week out. 

PROJECTED POINTS: 13.6

Matt: Over the last three weeks, Dowdle has seen 66 touches and totaled 362 scrimmage yards. Only Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs have more touches in that span, with only Barkley and Jerry Jeudy having more yards. Scoring just one touchdown (in a struggling offense) during this stretch, Dowdle's upside has been capped, but he's still averaged 15.7 fantasy points per game over those three weeks. Now he gets the Panthers' defense -- which has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season and ranks second-lowest in NFL Pro's defensive rushing efficiency -- and his projection sits two points below that average? Nonsense. He should top this mark with yardage alone, but a couple catches and a potential touchdown would put him in the low-end RB1 mix.

PROJECTED POINTS: 15.8

Michelle: With rookie Jonathon Brooks going down with another unfortunate ACL tear, Hubbard will remain a workhorse back for the rest of the season. Hubbard has reached 15 fantasy points in four of the last five games with 20-plus points in three of those contests. The Cowboys have allowed 25.1 fantasy points per game to the running back position in 2024, the fifth-most in the NFL.

One thing we know: Hubbard won't be splitting much of the available fantasy points to be had in this game. He had 30 touches last week and was the only running back to touch the ball after Brooks' injury early in the game. Hubbard has the second-highest percentage of his team's total rushing attempts in the NFL this season, behind only Rams back Kyren Williams.

PROJECTED POINTS: 10.3

Michelle: In his first game back after spending two weeks in concussion protocol, Ferguson managed just 6.2 fantasy points in a good matchup against the Bengals. The good news is that he didn't lose snaps to the young Luke Schoonmaker, who had looked very solid in his absence. Ferguson played twice as many snaps and saw four more targets than Schoonmaker in Week 14. If he gets six-plus targets again this week, his box score should look much better. 

The Panthers have allowed the most touchdowns and fantasy points to tight ends this season. Nine TEs have scored 10-plus points against them -- including non-exceptional tight ends such as Noah Gray (22.6), Adam Trautman (18.5), Foster Moreau (14.3), and Juwan Johnson (10.6). Even Philadelphia's backup tight end, Grant Calcaterra, found the end zone and scored 10.6 points against Carolina last Sunday.

PROJECTED POINTS: 8.5

Matt: While Kraft might feel like a recent disappointment because his two best games of the season came in Weeks 4 and 5, I think we're underrating his overall success in 2024. He had a 13-yard stinker in Week 6 and a goose egg in Week 11, but in the other eight games since Week 4, Kraft has averaged 14.5 fantasy points. He's also been extremely productive with Romeo Doubs out of the lineup this year (17.2 fantasy points per game, three TDs in the three games Doubs has missed). At publishing, Doubs has yet to officially clear concussion protocol. (EDITOR'S UPDATE: Packers coach Matt LaFleur said on Friday that Romeo Doubs has cleared concussion protocol.)

Kraft should see enough high-value targets in a middling matchup with Seattle to crack starter territory -- and 8.5 fantasy points -- in the fantasy quarterfinals.

PROJECTED POINTS: 16.6

Michelle: With Derek Carr sidelined, Jake Haener is set to make his first NFL start. Carr missed three games earlier this season (Weeks 6-8), and Kamara averaged 70 scrimmage yards and 14.7 fantasy points per game during that span. He did get a ton of attention in the passing game from Spencer Rattler in those games, but the 26 targets turned into just 93 receiving yards. Kamara could pad his fantasy points in full PPR leagues with low-yardage receptions in Week 15, but that won't be easy with the Commanders allowing the fewest receptions to running backs this season. Only one player at the position has scored more than 11 fantasy points against the Commanders over their last five games: Saquon Barkley, who dominated them on the ground.

PROJECTED POINTS: 11.8

Matt: Sometimes in fantasy football, a player's early-season production becomes entrenched in our minds and it can be difficult to shake those expectations for new realities. See: D'Andre Swift. The Bears back had three straight games with 20-plus fantasy points before the Week 7 bye and was a decent start all the way through mid-November. But with the drastic shifts in the coaching staff and nagging injury concerns for Swift, he has scored single-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games.

Now he draws a matchup with NFL Pro's No. 1 rush defense in Minnesota. The game is on the road in a tough environment, with the Bears being heavy underdogs. None of this is a recipe for Swift success. If you have another viable option, take it this week.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: D'Andre Swift (groin) missed his second straight practice on Friday.

PROJECTED POINTS: 12.3

Matt: Dell has played seven games with Nico Collins this season. In those contests, Dell has averaged three catches, 41 receiving yards and 7.6 fantasy points per game, with zero touchdowns. [Insert sad trombone noise here.] He's failed to reach 11 fantasy points in any of the three games since Collins returned from injury, and unfortunately, C.J. Stroud simply isn't playing at his Offensive Rookie of the Year level from 2023, when he easily supported multiple fantasy stars in the passing game.

Now, in your fantasy quarterfinals, Dell draws the Dolphins. While they've been beaten recently by the Davante Adams-Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua-Cooper Kupp duos, Dell is not playing up to the standards of any of those guys. He should ride the bench this week.

PROJECTED POINTS: 15.1

Michelle: Bowers has put up some monster fantasy performances in his rookie season, but he has thrown in some duds along the way. Over his last four games, he has two contests with 30-plus fantasy points and two with fewer than nine points. The Falcons have allowed just 11.9 fantasy points per game to the tight end position in 2024, and Bowers could be splitting that average with Michael Mayer, who saw his workload increase last weekend. Mayer played nearly the same number of snaps as Bowers and saw four more targets and receptions than him in Week 14. Even if Aidan O'Connell (bone bruise) ultimately starts, Bowers' upside doesn't feel great in this current offense.