Fantasy sleepers, Week 15: Rico Dowdle, Keenan Allen to begin fantasy playoffs with a bang?

We had low expectations for Rodgers as a fantasy quarterback this year, and he didn’t even live up to those. Rodgers entered Week 14 barely inside the top 20 at his position and hadn’t had more than 16 fantasy points in a game since Halloween. Then came Sunday’s contest against Miami. It wasn’t spectacular, but it was passable. Rodgers had his first 300-yard passing game since Week 12 of 2021 and finished with 17.56 fantasy points. 

That’s encouraging going into this week’s game against the Jaguars. Week 14 aside, Jacksonville has been a soft target for fantasy managers looking to start a quarterback or pass catcher. Nine signal-callers have had a top 12 weekly finish against the Jags. Considering the state of the Jets offense, that might be a bridge too far for Rodgers, who has just four QB1 weekly finishes this year. The veteran is undoubtedly in play in multiple QB formats. With no teams on a bye, forcing him into one-QB lineups might be a tougher ask. 

If you were expecting the Bears to get the patented New Coach Bump last week, you were sorely disappointed. Chicago was thoroughly dominated from start to finish by the 49ers. Williams had another lackluster fantasy performance with just 134 passing yards, one lost fumble and 14.06 points. If there was any upside, it’s that the rookie had another strong second half with a pair of touchdown passes to Rome Odunze.

This is undoubtedly an offense that is rife with issues, but that doesn’t mean Williams can’t succeed. Look no further than Chicago’s Week 12 game against the Vikings. Williams had his third 300-yard game of the year, going for 340 and a pair of touchdowns. For all the ups and downs, Williams has taken advantage of positive matchups. His best fantasy performances have come against Carolina, Jacksonville, Minnesota and Detroit – some of the best possible opponents for fantasy quarterbacks. That’s reason enough to think the trend continues this week. 

This might be the first time I’ve written about Dowdle. At least the first time in a while. Which is good, since he’s on the verge of graduating from sleeperdom. Dowdle has settled any debate about who should be getting most of Dallas’ running back touches. He’s rushed for 329 yards in his last three games, notching double-digit PPR points in all of them. 

After running over the Bengals in Week 14, Dowdle gets a look at the still-woeful Carolina Panthers run defense. Criticizing the Panthers for getting shredded by Saquon Barkley is like being mad at the sun for being bright. Criticizing the Panthers for giving up the most overall rushing yards in the NFL leads you to believe Dowdle will kick the fantasy playoffs off with a bang.  

Breece Hall’s status for the rest of this season seems murky. In his stead, the Jets have used a tandem of Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. It would be preferable for the Jets to pick one back over the other. We could only be so lucky. The upside is that while Davis and Allen split the snaps and touches almost evenly, it was Davis who saw some of the money touches. He out-snapped Allen in the red zone, taking one of those plays 17 yards for a touchdown. This week, he’s likely to get another chance to make an impression.  

The Jets aren’t prolific, but the Jaguars have a knack for helping a lot of struggling outfits. If last week’s usage trend holds, Davis could see more of the high-leverage touches fantasy managers crave. With the bye weeks finished, it seems risky to plug Davis (or any Jets back) into a season-long playoff lineup. But for the DFS crowd, he could be a nice upside play to help differentiate some lineups. 

Consider this my final attempt at divining what is in the mind of Sean Payton. About the only things I’ve ascertained are that 1) Payton enjoys letting us know that he is the smartest man in the room, and 2) He hates your fantasy team. Both have been on full display with Denver’s running back rotation. We’ve gone from Javonte Williams to Jaleel McLaughlin to Audric Estime and back again. 

The arrow seems to be pointing in McLaughlin’s direction again. For now. Over Denver’s past two games, the second-year player has been the team’s most productive back despite playing fewer snaps than Williams. That’s encouraging against a Colts defense that has been a soft landing spot for fantasy running backs. Indy has given up the second-most rushing yards of any team, with seven backs having at least 80 rushing yards in a game against them this season. McLaughlin might need a touchdown to have a truly big day, but he could be in the flex conversation in deeper leagues. 

There are known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. One of the known knowns about the Bears offense was that DJ Moore was going to be Caleb Williams’ top target. That was borne out with Moore having a 20-target lead in that category. A known unknown is who would be the second option. We’re still searching for a definitive answer for that with Allen and Rome Odunze neck-and-neck in multiple receiving categories.  

The unknown unknown is which of the two will see the most work on a weekly basis. This week, the honors should fall to Allen. The veteran, unsurprisingly, is doing most of his work from the slot in Chicago’s offense. That’s been a weak spot for the Vikings. Minnesota has allowed the third-most completions and fifth-most yards to slot targets. One of Allen’s best games this season came versus the Vikes in Week 12. Unless Brian Flores’ defense makes wholesale adjustments, another nice week for Allen could be in the works. 

The disappointment surrounding Nabers is nothing more than the crushing weight of lofty expectations. After a trio of 20-point explosions in Weeks 2-4, the rookie has settled into a more mundane pattern of 12 to 15 points a week. He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 3. He also hasn’t been shy letting people know how he feels about things. 

Through it all, he’s maintained a steady 29 percent target share. Just three other WRs have a greater piece of their team’s passing pie. He’s also posted more than 50 yards in seven straight games. Tommy DeVito doesn’t have to be great for Nabers to have a good game against a woeful Ravens secondary. He just can’t be as bad as he was in only other start this year. Nabers is a solid WR2 candidate this week. 

I’m going to be honest. It’s a bad week for tight ends. If you have a good one, hold him close. It’s tough in the tight end sleeper streets. You don’t wanna be out here. But if you find yourself here, there’s always Noah Gray. Yes, the same Noah Gray that gives Travis Kelce managers high blood pressure. To that end, Gray is second in end zone targets and tied for the team lead with four receiving touchdowns.  

That’s good news in an offense that is coming to life late in the season. Now, that Chiefs offense faces a Browns defense that is allowing the most fantasy points per game to tight ends over the last month. The caveat: one of those games was a 41-point Taysom Hill effort. Notwithstanding, Pat Freiermuth posted a pair of top-15 finishes versus the Browns in Weeks 12 and 14. Low TE1 is the absolute ceiling for Gray this week. But if past is prologue, there is touchdown upside. 

Don’t look now, but the Falcons might have found a pass rush. Atlanta has nine combined sacks over the past two weeks, compared with 10 sacks in their first 11 games. Too bad that pass rush didn’t stop Sam Darnold from throwing for five touchdowns. But that was last week. That was also the Vikings and their top 10 passing offense.  

This week brings a trip to Vegas against a Raiders team in need of a quarterback. Aidan O’Connell is trying to play on Monday night. If not, the duty falls to Desmond Ridder. Neither is an intimidating option. Vegas has allowed the fourth-most sacks while committing the most turnovers. Now, their QB choices are an immobile statue or a scattershot scrambler. Feels like a chance for the Falcons to feast. 

I will concede that the Bengals defense is not very good. When you’re getting diced up by Homer Simpson (aka Cooper Rush), it’s time to reevaluate some things. Yet through the vagaries of fantasy DST scoring -- a few sacks here, a fumble recovery there -- Cincinnati was the DST7 in Week 14. Ah, the power of sacks and turnovers. 

Meanwhile, don’t let all the talk of Caleb Williams sacks (56!) distract you from Will Levis taking 39 sacks in three fewer games. He has three games where he has been sacked at least seven times. Tennessee makes up for it with an offense that has 23 giveaways -- second-most in the NFL. That is a recipe for the Bengals to have another sneaky good fantasy week.