NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 5 NFL picks below.
Analyst | Record (Straight) | Record (ATS) | Over/Under | Solo YOLO (Straight) | Solo YOLO (ATS) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ali | 44-19-1 (69.8%) | 26-38 (40.6%) | 37-27 (57.8%) | 3-0 (100.0%) | 4-2 (66.7%) |
Brooke | 42-21-1 (66.7%) | 26-38 (40.6%) | 34-30 (53.1%) | 3-5 (37.5%) | 8-8 (50.0%) |
Dan | 47-16-1 (74.6%) | 27-37 (42.2%) | 38-26 (59.4%) | 0-0 (0.0%) | 0-0 (0.0%) |
Gennaro | 41-22-1 (65.1%) | 31-33 (48.4%) | 37-27 (57.8%) | 0-5 (0.0%) | 2-2 (50.0%) |
Tom | 44-19-1 (69.8%) | 27-37 (42.2%) | 30-34 (46.9%) | 0-1 (0.0%) | 1-0 (100.0%) |
Consensus | 29-8-1 (78.4%) | 5-11 (31.3%) | 5-2 (71.4%) |
The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 2.
SUNDAY, OCT. 5
- WHERE: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)
- WHEN: 9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network
- MONEYLINE: Vikings -218 | Browns +180
- SPREAD: Vikings -4.5 | O/U: 36.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Vikings 18-15 |
Vikings 20-18 |
Vikings 19-15 |
Vikings 14-13 |
Vikings 21-14 |
Why Gennaro picked the Vikings: One month into the season, Cleveland could have the best defense in football. The Browns allow the fewest yards per game and yards per play, while ranking second (behind Seattle) in Defensive DVOA. Yet, the team sits in the AFC North cellar at 1-3 because of a woefully inept offense that has more turnovers (eight) than touchdowns (six). Not only has Kevin Stefanski's toothless attack failed to hold up its end of the bargain, but it's hanging the defense out to dry by consistently giving opponents short fields. This explains why Cleveland ranks 24th in scoring D, a misleading statistic that could erroneously suggest Jim Schwartz's group isn't getting the job done. This also explains why Cleveland is making a change at quarterback, benching 40-year-old Joe Flacco and turning to third-round pick Dillon Gabriel. What does all of this mean for Sunday's London tilt vs. Minnesota? Well, with the Browns facing an injury-riddled Vikings offensive line, Myles Garrett, Maliek Collins and Co. should wreak havoc once again. However, I anticipate Cleveland will continue to struggle offensively, with a rookie quarterback making his starting debut against Brian Flores' brain-scrambling defense. Expecting a low-scoring affair on foreign soil, I'll give an extra edge in the acclimation department to Minnesota, which is playing its second straight game across the pond following last Sunday's three-point loss to Pittsburgh in Dublin.
- WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
- WHEN: 1:00 p.m. ET | CBS
- MONEYLINE: Texans -135 | Ravens +114
- SPREAD: Texans -1.5 | O/U: 40.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Texans 23-20 |
Ravens 24-21 |
Texans 23-20 |
Texans 23-17 |
Texans 21-18 |
Why Ali picked the Texans: Houston's defense ranks last in the NFL against QB scrambles and 30th against runs outside the tackles -- two significant weaknesses a healthy Baltimore team would've been ideally suited to exploit. Alas, the Ravens are anything but whole entering the weekend. Despite his name, Cooper Rush was not built to run in the NFL; the Ravens' seasoned backup has amassed 51 yards on designed runs/scrambles over his eight-year career, per Next Gen Stats. (Because I know you're wondering, that's 6,352 yards short of Lamar Jackson's total.) And if Pro Bowler Ronnie Stanley (ankle) is a no-go, those Derrick Henry carries off tackle become a bit less frightening, too. What continues to be terrifying, though, is Baltimore's defense, which is in even more dire shape than the offense. The reeling unit, which already ranked among the league's worst against the run, could host Houston without All-Pros Roquan Smith and Marlon Humphrey, as well as starting corner Nate Wiggins, among others. Houston running backs Nick Chubb and Woody Marks must be licking their chops to hit the M&T turf, especially after posting their best combined performance of the year in Week 4. The Ravens still have a lot of (healthy) talent to believe John Harbaugh's group will find a way, but I think it's who they won't have that ultimately dooms them on Sunday.
- WHERE: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, N.C.)
- WHEN: 1:00 p.m. ET | FOX
- MONEYLINE: Dolphins -120 | Panthers +100
- SPREAD: Dolphins -1.5 | O/U: 45.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dolphins 24-21 |
Panthers 28-23 |
Panthers 27-25 |
Panthers 27-24 |
Panthers 25-21 |
Why Tom picked the Panthers: Strip away all the baggage that these teams have accrued, with Carolina locked in a rebuilding project and Miami tumbling out of regular playoff contention, and you have two sides that are kind of in the same spot: likely to lose to superior opponents and capable of doing god knows what when thrown together. It was tempting to go with the Dolphins, who showed they still know how to move the ball in their win over the Jets on Monday. But the numbers suggest the Fins are even better at letting other teams do the same; their passer rating allowed (125.1) counts as the highest mark in the NFL, and they are one of four teams coughing up more than 5 yards per rush this season. The Panthers (4.9 yards allowed per rush) aren't much stouter in run D, but they seem ready to make things difficult for Tua Tagovailoa, rocking the eighth-best passer rating allowed (79.8), even after Drake Maye romped to a mark of 155.6 against them last week. I will tentatively trust Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan to figure it out at home against this forgiving Miami defense.
- WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
- WHEN: 1:00 p.m. ET | FOX
- MONEYLINE: Raiders +270 | Colts -340
- SPREAD: Colts -7 | O/U: 47.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Colts 28-20 |
Colts 30-21 |
Colts 28-20 |
Colts 31-21 |
Colts 28-20 |
Why Brooke picked the Colts: Mistakes marred both the Colts and Raiders last week, from Adonai Mitchell's goal-line gaffe to Indy having 10 defenders on the field during the Rams' game-winning TD, and from Vegas' four turnovers to the Silver & Black having the potential game-winning FG blocked. Frustrations abound! The Colts are in better position to quickly get past last week's headaches, as they hold a majority of matchup advantages on both sides of the ball. Indy's retooled O-line has done a great job early, paving the way for league rushing leader Jonathan Taylor to get to the second level and allowing Daniel Jones enough time to find his targets downfield. Jones, to his credit, has also played well under pressure, generating the highest dropback success rate (61.5%) and gaining the most passing yards (470) of any QB against the blitz in 2025, per NGS. There's a lot of pressure on Maxx Crosby and friends to limit Indy's balanced attack because, while Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers possess game-changing powers, one Raiders player has largely stood in the way of the team's success: Geno Smith. The veteran leads the NFL with seven INTs, all occurring on downfield passes of at least 10 yards, third-most by any QB through the first four weeks of any season in the NGS era (since 2016). And now, he'll attempt to forge ahead without blind-side protector Kolton Miller. Pete Carroll's team has grit and components of a winner, but right now, its QB is sinking the ship.
- WHERE: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
- WHEN: 1:00 p.m. ET | CBS
- MONEYLINE: Giants +102 | Saints -122
- SPREAD: Saints -1.5 | O/U: 42.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Saints 21-18 |
Saints 22-18 |
Giants 21-18 |
Saints 25-20 |
Giants 23-20 |
Why Dan picked the Giants: Both teams are struggling to find their way, and no result would surprise me in this one. The Giants seem closer to having a sense of how to win, though. They beat one of the most impressive squads of the early going in 2025, pummeling a weakened Chargers offensive line for 21 pressures, the most of any team in Week 4. New York notched its first victory of the season last week despite losing its best offensive player early on in its quarterback's first career start. I respect the Saints' scrappiness, but I've yet to see them show the resiliency the Giants displayed against the Bolts. Jaxson Dart has injected new life into the offense, and the combination of Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux is a lot for any offensive line to handle, especially a banged-up one like New Orleans has at the moment. Sunday will present an excellent chance for Saints QB Spencer Rattler to earn his first career win (0-10 as a starter) a week after Dart nailed it on his first try. Rattler's played better than his record would indicate, but I need to see him log a W before I can truly believe.
- WHERE: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
- WHEN: 1:00 p.m. ET | FOX
- MONEYLINE: Cowboys -142 | Jets +120
- SPREAD: Cowboys -2.5 | O/U: 47.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cowboys 28-24 |
Cowboys 27-22 |
Cowboys 33-29 |
Cowboys 29-22 |
Cowboys 26-22 |
Why Gennaro picked the Cowboys: Lost in all the drama that continually envelopes Jerry Jones' content machine/football team: Dak Prescott is still a pretty damn good quarterback. The MVP runner-up in 2023, Prescott became the highest-paid player in NFL history just prior to last year's kickoff. But the 60 Million Dollar Man's 2024 campaign started slowly and ended prematurely, with a crippling hamstring injury sidelining him for the final nine games. Subsequently, Prescott received little fanfare entering this season. It kinda felt like everyone forgot about Dak. Clearly, though, the 32-year-old can still sling it, as evidenced by his league-high 1,119 passing yards in September. He's been efficient, too, completing nearly 73 percent of his throws while accumulating the best Pro Football Focus grade among full-time starting signal-callers. And in this past Sunday night's 40-40 tie with Green Bay, Prescott found his comfort zone with George Pickens, connecting with the new toy eight times for 134 yards and two touchdowns. All of this spells trouble for a Jets defense that's transitioning -- slowly -- to Aaron Glenn's aggressive press-man scheme. New York ranks in the bottom five in points allowed, defensive EPA/per play and QB pressures, per Next Gen Stats. Granted, Dallas' D has been equally porous, but I'm not as confident in Justin Fields making that unit pay. Cowboys DC Matt Eberflus is quite familiar with the quarterback's game, having been his head coach for two years in Chicago. Lastly, Dallas' two defeats have come in the two games where the Cowboys lost the turnover battle. In related news, the Jets are the only team without a single takeaway this season.
- WHERE: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
- WHEN: 1:00 p.m. ET | CBS
- MONEYLINE: Broncos +170 | Eagles -205
- SPREAD: Eagles -3.5 | O/U: 43.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Eagles 24-21 |
Eagles 26-21 |
Eagles 25-21 |
Broncos 23-21 |
Broncos 24-21 |
Why Tom picked the Broncos: I originally had a whole blurb laid out explaining why the Broncos should be perfectly poised to finally knock Philly down a peg but ultimately won't -- until I talked myself into actually believing in Denver. Don't worry: I'm not just getting carried away by Bo Nix and Co.'s decisive prime-time win over the flailing Bengals, or all the soapy drama swirling around A.J. Brown. What ultimately persuaded me to take a chance on the Broncos here was their defensive prowess. They've allowed a passer rating of 78.4, sixth-lowest in the NFL, with the best pressure rate (48.1%) and the sixth-lowest EPA allowed per carry (-0.16). The Eagles' offense, meanwhile, have failed to crack 300 total yards in the past three weeks, generating fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their past two games -- the only time they fell below that rushing total last season was in Week 18, when most of the starters were resting up for their Super Bowl run. Granted, the Eagles' defense is just as much of a force, and I don't feel great about rolling with Nix and Sean Payton to get their first road win of the season in Philadelphia, but I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Philly's offense finally falls into a hole it can't climb out of.
- WHERE: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
- WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
- MONEYLINE: Titans +330 | Cardinals -425
- SPREAD: Cardinals -7.5 | O/U: 42.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cardinals 23-16 |
Cardinals 23-17 |
Cardinals 26-17 |
Cardinals 26-14 |
Cardinals 24-17 |
Why Brooke picked the Cardinals: Cam Ward kept it 100 after last week's loss dropped the Titans to 0-4 and extended their losing streak to 10 games going back to last season. His response to getting shut out? "We ass." I mean, he's not wrong. Through four games, Tennessee's offense has turned the ball over five times, found the end zone just three times and averaged a league-low 12.8 points per game. Brian Callahan gave up play-calling duties, but to no avail. Calvin Ridley has been nonexistent. The list goes on. It hasn't been all daisies and roses for Arizona, either. Jonathan Gannon's group lost its last two contests on game-winning field goals as time expired, and the Cardinals and Titans are the only teams to have fewer than 300 total yards in all four games. The Cards are starting their third-string RB (Emari Demercado), while Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. still aren't jibing. Is this the week Arizona -- facing a Titans defense that ranks 25th overall and 28th in scoring -- puts it all together? If it's not, sound the alarms.
- WHERE: Lumen Field (Seattle)
- WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
- MONEYLINE: Buccaneers +154 | Seahawks -185
- SPREAD: Seahawks -3.5 | O/U: 44.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Seahawks 23-20 |
Seahawks 25-22 |
Seahawks 24-20 |
Buccaneers 21-20 |
Seahawks 25-20 |
Why Dan picked the Seahawks: In a testament to Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield's unique place in league history, this will be the first matchup since at least 1950 between starting quarterbacks that are 30 years old or younger and have each started for at least four different teams, per NFL Research. These two have their respective squads off to 3-1 starts for a reason -- they know how to hang in there. My concern about the Bucs is they haven't been able to win a game without Mike Evans in four tries since the start of last season, and he's expected to miss his second straight game this week as he recovers from a hamstring injury. Combine that with the potential absence of RB1 Bucky Irving (foot injury), and the Tampa Bay offense just isn't the same. (EDITOR'S UPDATE: Evans and Irving have both been ruled out for Sunday.) The Seahawks have allowed the second-fewest points per game (16.8) and third-fewest yards per play (4.5) in 2025, which means Mike Macdonald could make life very difficult for Mayfield. Admittedly, if the blitz starts getting home against Seattle's offensive line, it's not hard to envision Darnold turning into a pumpkin, but I'll take the home team in a tight one.
- WHERE: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
- WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
- MONEYLINE: Lions -550 | Bengals +410
- SPREAD: Lions -10.5 | O/U: 49.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Lions 35-17 |
Lions 28-20 |
Lions 35-16 |
Lions 34-17 |
Lions 31-20 |
Why Ali picked the Lions: Real tough break for Jake Browning. To go from Minnesota's opportunistic defense, to Denver's attacking group to Detroit's unrelenting unit in consecutive weeks ... I mean, come on. Unlike the Bengals, who rank 30th in total defense and dead last in total offense, the Lions are firing on all cylinders, averaging an NFL-best 34.3 points per game and boasting the league's No. 1 sack percentage (10%). While Cincinnati ranks 31st in point-differential per game (-14.3), Detroit sits at the top of the table (12.3). Unless the Bengals' rock-bottom run game suddenly finds its footing against Detroit's seventh-ranked rush defense (unlikely), expect Browning to be under constant duress as he attempts to force passes to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. One of the league's best duos (if not the best), Chase and Higgins can only do so much without the ball in their hands. Can Zac Taylor fix his floundering offense -- on a short week, no less -- against a team truly feeling itself? Just don't see it.
- WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
- WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
- MONEYLINE: Commanders +130 | Chargers -155
- SPREAD: Chargers -2.5 | O/U: 47.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Commanders 24-23 |
Chargers 23-20 |
Chargers 24-22 |
Commanders 24-20 |
Chargers 26-23 |
Why Brooke picked the Chargers: After missing two weeks with a knee injury, Jayden Daniels is back to lead a Washington offense that has yet to hit its stride in 2025. It'll be a tough ask for everything to suddenly click in Daniels' return, though, as the Commanders face a Chargers D that ranks top five in scoring (17.8 PPG, fourth), total (270 YPG, third) and pass defense (158.8 pass YPG, fifth). How Daniels moves in the pocket -- and how much he uses his legs -- will likely tell this tale. Since 2024, he has the second-most carries and rush yards among QBs and his 12.9 scramble percentage is the highest among signal-callers (min. 250 pass attempts). If his movement is at all limited, it could be a long day. On the flip side, Justin Herbert will be without Joe Alt, one of the NFL's best pass-blocking left tackles this season. That could be an issue against Dan Quinn's defense, which has generated the third-highest pressure rate (45.4%) through four weeks. Pressured on 42.7 percent of his dropbacks (fifth-highest in the NFL), Herbert hasn't been great in such situations, completing 21 of his 55 pass attempts for 286 yards, two TDs, two INTs and a 52.5 passer rating. Yet, if Herbert's pocket stays mostly clean, expect him to find his playmakers downfield -- an area of weakness for Washington. I see this being a back-and-forth affair with the home team making just enough timely plays to get back in the win column.
- WHERE: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
- WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC, Universo
- MONEYLINE: Patriots +330 | Bills -425
- SPREAD: Bills -8.5 | O/U: 49.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Bills 30-24 |
Bills 33-20 |
Bills 31-23 |
Bills 28-24 |
Bills 29-20 |
Why Tom picked the Bills: I agree with Drake Maye that this will be a "checkpoint" game for the Patriots -- and I suspect they will ultimately be found wanting. New England has every right to roll into this one with some confidence, coming off a 42-13 rout of the Panthers. But on Sunday night, Maye's job will be keeping up with Josh Allen, and that's just a different sort of project entirely. Then there's the fact that Buffalo's most glaring weakness -- a 31st-ranked run defense -- isn't exactly something New England seems equipped to exploit, with Rhamondre Stevenson (4.0 yards per attempt) and TreVeyon Henderson (3.7 yards per attempt) heading up the 25th-ranked ground attack, especially if Ed Oliver and Matt Milano are back. Buffalo's been ruling this rivalry for long enough that it would be almost refreshing for Maye and Co. to pull themselves closer to equal footing, but it feels a bit premature to bank on that happening now.
MONDAY, OCT. 6
- WHERE: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Fla.)
- WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Deportes
- MONEYLINE: Chiefs -175 | Jaguars +145
- SPREAD: Chiefs -3.5 | O/U: 46.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs 26-20 |
Chiefs 28-23 |
Chiefs 25-20 |
Chiefs 23-18 |
Chiefs 26-20 |
Why Ali picked the Chiefs: The Chiefs are back! If you think my proclamation is premature, well, perhaps you missed how much smoother Kansas City's operation looked last weekend with Xavier Worthy back in the lineup. The speedy wideout tallied 121 yards from scrimmage (leading the team in rushing and receiving) while opening up opportunities for all of his friends, so much so that Patrick Mahomes posted his best TD-to-INT ratio (4:0) since October 2022. Sure it came against an underwhelming (and banged-up) Ravens defense, but that kind of performance travels -- which is good, because the Chiefs face a much stiffer test in Jacksonville on Monday night. The Jags boast the NFL's second-best pass EPA on defense, in large part due to their league-leading 14 takeaways (nine picks). They've been great at limiting chunk plays and holding opponents to field goals in the red zone. But Jacksonville has yet to face a QB even remotely close to Mahomes' quality (for four full quarters, at least), and the Chiefs simply don't turn the ball over (tied for first in fewest giveaways). Assuming No. 15 is able to work his magic, per usual, I expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to clamp down on Jacksonville's run game, forcing Trevor Lawrence to consistently win through the air -- something the fifth-year pro has struggled to do so far this season. If this game rests on the shoulders of the two QBs, as I expect it to, I'll take Mahomes' right arm 10 times out of 10.
Fun fact: Jacksonville is one of 16 NFL teams that have yet to beat Patrick Mahomes. The two-time MVP's 4-0 record against the Jags is his longest active undefeated streak versus any team.
THURSDAY'S GAME
- WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
- WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video
- MONEYLINE: 49ers +350 | Rams -455
- SPREAD: Rams -8.5 | O/U: 43.5
Ali | Brooke | Dan | Gennaro | Tom |
---|---|---|---|---|
Rams 27-17 |
Rams 26-19 |
Rams 25-16 |
Rams 30-16 |
Rams 24-21 |
Why Dan picked the Rams: The 49ers enter Thursday night's game without the services of their $53 million starting quarterback, top three wide receivers, six-time Pro Bowl tight end and best edge rusher, who won Defensive Player of the Year a few seasons ago. Aside from those sobering facts, things are going OK for Kyle Shanahan's 3-1 squad. Yes, the Rams have their own injury concerns, but nothing close to San Francisco's seemingly dire situation. I know Niners backup QB Mac Jones has led the team to a couple victories this season in place of Brock Purdy, but those came against the winless Saints and mediocre Cardinals, with a combined margin of six points. Pulling off the same feat on the road in a short week against the Rams -- who would be 4-0 if not for a field-goal mishap -- with all the injury woes is too big of an ask. Matthew Stafford has struggled against San Francisco since being dealt to Los Angeles in 2021 (2-5 record, 7:7 TD-to-INT ratio). It probably won't take a lot of points to earn a victory Thursday night, though. The Rams' top-10 defense, boasting the fourth-highest pressure rate in the league, should keep Shanahan's wounded offense quiet.
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