Sixteen weeks in the books means this is it … the fantasy championship! Congratulations on making it this far, hopefully this column helped! As always, to better understand and decipher the storylines of this final week, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of the biggest insights to know, with all the relevant NFL Pro context and the fantasy fallout we can expect!
Jared Goff in a Christmas Day contest with the Vikings pass rush
The Vikings defense doesn't carry many NFL Pro matchup advantages into Thursday's game against the Lions, but there is one glaring opportunity to throw a wrench into Detroit's offensive plans. Pressure. The Vikings currently hold the top spot in NFL Pro's pressure rate metric while the Lions are bottom-half of the league in preventing pressure. Minnesota gets to the QB on 41.3% of dropbacks this year and they also top the league by a wide margin with a 23.5% quick pressure rate — the next-highest is Denver at just 19.2% and no other team cracks 18% on the year. Moreover, when they have pressured the QB, the Vikings have surrendered a 47.9% completion rate and -0.5 pass EPA/dropback, both top 10 among defenses.
Meanwhile, on the season, Jared Goff has just three passing touchdowns (and two interceptions) against pressure, with a 72.4 passer rating and a 47.7% completion rate. He's been elite on quick passes (to help avoid the pressure) and on passing without pressure (where Detroit ranks third in NFL Pro offensive efficiency), but all the numbers plummet when the pass rush gets to the largely immobile QB. The Lions are heavily favored and Minnesota has been much softer against the run than the pass, so this might be a day for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to run the show. That said, Goff is also coming off consecutive games with 300+ yards and three touchdown passes (though the latter came at home against Pittsburgh). It's another good-against-good and it will be up to Goff and Dan Campbell to cook up a gameplan capable of circumventing Minnesota's high-pressure front.
Fantasy Fallout: On the road in what has been one of the worst fantasy matchups for quarterbacks, Jared Goff is a fringe play at best and should be benched in most leagues for capable streamers. And while Amon-Ra St. Brown is a must-play and Jameson Williams has been very good the last couple months, both have theoretically lowered floors against a very tough secondary.
Chargers wideouts against the shutdown secondary of the Texans
After a game in which Justin Herbert threw for 300 yards and both Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston topped 14 fantasy points, it might be tempting to believe you can play the Chargers receivers again in Week 17. Maybe even throw in a little Keenan Allen? Let's pump the brakes. The Cowboys — who Herbert and Co. just tagged for all that production on Sunday — rank dead last in NFL Pro's pass defense efficiency. The Houston Texans … are number one. They're also specifically number one with extended time to throw, with no blitz, with no pressure and on short throws, thanks in large part to what is arguably the most talented defensive backfield in the league. The only passing category Pro ranks where the Bolts have an "advantage" is against the blitz … and the Texans blitz at the seventh-lowest rate in the league.
Meanwhile, prior to a game against the hapless Dallas defense, the Chargers trio had been basically unplayable for an entire month. Through the previous four outings, Allen had averaged 7.5 fantasy points per game, McConkey was sitting at 6.1 per game, and Johnston just 4.7 per game in one fewer contest. In their four wins since the Week 12 bye, no Chargers receiver has seen more than 20 targets, and while he leads the team with 274 targeted air yards, McConkey is sitting at 198 incomplete air yards over that span. And the recent emergence of rookie Tre Harris clouds things even further. For fantasy purposes, this is a frustratingly diverse group with a low overall ceiling — Herbert has averaged just 176 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game the last six weeks — running into a defensive buzz saw. It would be surprising if any of the "big three" hit double-digit fantasy points on Saturday — on NFL Network and NFL+ — and even if one does, it's impossible to predict which one.
Fantasy Fallout: If you can manage it, I would not start McConkey, Allen or Johnston in Week 17, though McConkey is the most realistic, given the air yardage. The combination of low ceiling and low floor for all three drops them below a broad number of "streamer" flex options like Stefon Diggs, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Kenneth Gainwell and Blake Corum.
Derrick "December" Henry meets the stout Packers front at Lambeau
In his career in the month of December, Derrick Henry has averaged 93.7 rushing yards per game. The only players with at least 20 games in December to average more were Clinton Portis and Barry Sanders. And in his seven December games specifically with the Ravens, Henry jumps to 111.4 rushing yads per game, after tagging the tough Patriots defense for 128 yards and two scores on Sunday night. He's increased his rushing total in three straight games and will meet the Packers defense in likely-freezing temperatures on Saturday night at Lambeau field — making the 6-foot-2, 252-pound freight train an even less desirable tackle. Even with Lamar Jackson running less of late, Henry has helped keep the Ravens at second in NFL Pro's overall rushing efficiency, and top five both inside and outside the tackles, and versus both stacked and light boxes.
However, nearly unstoppable force meets largely immovable object this weekend as the Packers defense also ranks second in NFL Pro's overall rushing efficiency. They're particularly good in the red zone, where they've surrendered just eight total touchdowns to running backs (tied for the seventh-fewest), and have held opposing running backs to just 0.7 yards before contact this season (sixth-fewest). Since Week 10, they've only allowed two running backs to top 14 fantasy points — Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary in the same game. Over that same span, they held Saquon Barkley to 13.1 points, Jahmyr Gibbs to 11.6, D'Andre Swift to 11.2 and 9.0 in two meetings and an otherwise red-hot RJ Harvey to 10.5. It's going to be great-on-great this weekend, and the winner could decide a whole lot of fantasy finals.
Fantasy Fallout: Even in a tough matchup, I can't really imagine benching King Henry in December in the fantasy championship. The realistic hope would be that he does to Green Bay's stout run defense exactly what he did to New England's: to the tune of 22.8 fantasy points.
The QB-RB duos in Buffalo and Philly look to run rampant in a critical showdown
Josh Allen and James Cook have combined for 2,084 rushing yards and 24 rushing touchdowns this season, while Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley have combined for 1,488 and 15 of their own. They're arguably the top two QB-RB rushing duos in the league, and both backs are getting particularly hot in recent weeks. Cook has averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game over his last six contests (RB4 over that span) and Barkley has averaged 18.87 over his last three, with 332 rushing and three TDs rushing in that span. Both topped 20 fantasy points last weekend — 26.4 for Cook and 21.2 for Barkley — with more than 130 scrimmage yards apiece. Meanwhile, Allen has seven rushing scores in nine games since the Bills' Week 7 bye, and while Hurts hasn't found the end zone with his legs in a month, he has rushed for 30+ yards in five of his last six games and is probably due for a Tush Push TD.
Then you bring the defenses into the conversation and things get exciting. The Bills are NFL Pro's 30th-ranked overall rushing defense and are bottom-10 eight of the other nine rushing categories Pro measures. They've allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (144.3) and the most rushing touchdowns in the entire NFL (24) in 2025. On the other side, the Eagles defense is middle of the road overall, but they're specifically 29th in NFL Pro's rushing efficiency in the red zone and 29th against QB scrambles as well. Only three defenses have allowed more rushing YPG and more rushing TDs to quarterbacks than Philadelphia — the Giants, Cowboys and Buccaneers. As both of these teams strive for playoff positioning, it feels very likely that the winner will be whichever "backfield duo" has the better combination game on Sunday.
Fantasy Fallout: You're starting Allen, Hurts, Cook and Barkley, without question or hesitation. Even after Allen's bad Week 16. Even after Barkley's mostly disappointing season. These two pairs could easily finish one and two at their respective positions. Roll them out for the 'ship (and in DFS).
