The 2025 NFL schedule is out! At last, we can circle the hottest days on the calendar -- and project win totals for the 2025 NFL season.
While we've long known the identity of each team's opponents (and, in most cases, the location of each game), the actual sequencing of the schedules has an impact on projected win totals. For example, having to make multiple cross-country trips (or adding an international one ... or two) could influence a team's win probability, as could facing elite QBs in back-to-back weeks.
Here's how to read these win projections: Using projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 1 million simulations for all 272 regular-season games. (A quick note: Barring injuries, which are typically the biggest source of uncertainty, I have made roster projections using the best information available. Definitely check back for the updated versions of these win-total projections just before the season starts.) These simulations yielded a projected win total for each team, which, thanks to the multitude of factors involved, is not always a round number. The top seven teams in each conference are my projected playoff participants.
Remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played; personnel is the most important, but other key factors include play-caller tendencies and in-game situations. I re-run these simulations should any player change teams, suffer an injury or otherwise be made unavailable, thus changing the complexion of his team. The more important the player involved, the more the win totals shift -- including opponents' probabilities. Should a high-impact player (or two) change status, we can track how those moves shift everything. Again, this all suggests that you check back in September -- and that it's kind of fun to track everything from May until Super Bowl LX!
The lines below provided by Caesars Sportsbook & Casino are current as of 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, May 14 unless otherwise noted below.
- Win Total: under 11.5 (-135)
- Make Playoffs: -425
- Win Division: -160
- Win Conference: +290
- Win Super Bowl: +650
- Eagles' complete 2025 NFL schedule
Week 1’s win percentage represents Philly's highest forecasted odds of beating Dallas in their first matchup of the season (in any week) in at least 10 seasons. You’re welcome, Eagles fans. Over the next three weeks, the defending champs visit the Chiefs, host the Rams, then travel to the Bucs -- with each game presenting a much tougher task than the opener. It’s worth noting that the Eagles and Commanders don’t have their first matchup until Week 16 in Washington (with the follow-up set for Week 18 in Philly).
- Win Total: over 9.5 (-140)
- Make Playoffs: -140
- Win Division: +225
- Win Conference: +900
- Win Super Bowl: +1800
- Commanders' complete 2025 NFL schedule
Through Week 7, the Commanders are forecasted to be atop the NFC East. At that point, they will reach what could be a major turning point for their season: a Monday Night Football game in Kansas City in Week 8, followed by back-to-back home contests against the Seahawks and Lions. Washington can secure its best chance of outlasting the Eagles in the division by winning at least two of those three games. In other words, the Commanders can really set themselves up well ahead of their Week 11 game against Miami in Madrid, Spain.
- Win Total: under 10.5 (-125)
- Make Playoffs: -230
- Win Division: +140
- Win Conference: +450
- Win Super Bowl: +900
- Lions' complete 2025 NFL schedule
The Lions happen to have the toughest schedule in my model, and they are not helped by the fact that the NFC North is the division in which all four teams are projected to be separated by the fewest number of wins. They go to Lambeau Field, host the Bears, head to Baltimore, Cincinnati and Kansas City and then host the Bucs, all before Week 8. One positive spin to consider: If Detroit can make it through that gauntlet, the team will have truly been battle-tested ahead of the postseason.
- Win Total: under 10.5 (-130)
- Make Playoffs: -190
- Win Division: +155
- Win Conference: +800
- Win Super Bowl: +1600
- 49ers' complete 2025 NFL schedule
The Niners' fourth-place finish last season turned into a real W for Kyle Shanahan's squad, at least in terms of how the league's scheduling formula works, with the biggest threat among fellow 2024 fourth-placers on the 2025 slate being the Bears -- and they don't come to town until Week 17, by which time there should be plenty of clarity around this season. As of now, San Francisco doesn't have back-to-back games in which it is not favored to win, even factoring in all the defensive turnover this offseason.
- Win Total: under 10.5 (-130)
- Make Playoffs: -175
- Win Division: +155
- Win Conference: +1000
- Win Super Bowl: +1800
- Rams' complete 2025 NFL schedule
Like all NFC West teams, the Rams have great rotational matchups this season, and the contests that are projected to be the closest calls are well spaced out. Los Angeles' worst two-game stretch comes late in the campaign, when it hosts Detroit in Week 15 before going to Seattle on a short week for a Thursday Night Football tilt.
- Win Total: over 9.5 (+100)
- Make Playoffs: -150
- Win Division: +105
- Win Conference: +1800
- Win Super Bowl: +4000
- Buccaneers' complete 2025 NFL schedule
In the first seven weeks, the Bucs face four games against teams I forecasted to win their respective divisions: at Houston (Week 2 on Monday Night Football), vs. Philadelphia (Week 4), vs. San Francisco (Week 6) and at Detroit (Week 7 on MNF). That stretch -- combined with Weeks 11 and 12, when Tampa must face the Bills and Rams on the road -- drives the Bucs' win total under 10 games. Don't be too mad, though, because I have them winning the NFC South for the fifth straight season.
- Win Total: under 9.5 (-120)
- Make Playoffs: -120
- Win Division: +280
- Win Conference: +1000
- Win Super Bowl: +2200
- Packers' complete 2025 NFL schedule
The hardest stretch for the Pack occurs in Weeks 15-17, when they'll have consecutive road games in Denver and Chicago before hosting the Ravens. Jaire Alexander's availability will also make a huge difference in Weeks 1 and 2, when the Packers host the Lions and then the Commanders on a short week for Thursday Night Football.
- Win Total: over 8.5 (+100)
- Make Playoffs: +160
- Win Division: +440
- Win Conference: +1800
- Win Super Bowl: +3500
- Bears' complete 2025 NFL schedule
My model projects the Bears to start out with a 4-3 record. They are fortunate that their four toughest non-divisional opponents are spread out: vs. Washington in Week 6 (on Monday Night Football), at Baltimore in Week 8, at Philadelphia in Week 13 (Black Friday) and at San Francisco in Week 17 (on Sunday Night Football).
- Win Total: over 8.5 (+125)
- Make Playoffs: +130
- Win Division: +360
- Win Conference: +1200
- Win Super Bowl: +2800
- Vikings' complete 2025 NFL schedule
Guys, it’s fortunate that the Vikings are playing back-to-back games abroad. The Jags have done it in each of the last two seasons, going 3-1 in those games, and it could bode well for Minnesota, depending on when the Browns arrive in England, as that component does impact win potential. The Vikings' season largely hinges on how new starting QB J.J. McCarthy will perform -- not their schedule.
- Win Total: under 8.5 (-135)
- Make Playoffs: +180
- Win Division: +575
- Win Conference: +3000
- Win Super Bowl: +7500
- Seahawks' complete 2025 NFL schedule
The Seahawks' most probable start is 5-2 heading into their Week 8 bye. If they can go 6-1 or better in that span, the division becomes much more interesting, especially when you consider Seattle begins and ends the season against the 49ers.
- Win Total: under 8.5 (-110)
- Make Playoffs: +140
- Win Division: +575
- Win Conference: +3000
- Win Super Bowl: +6500
- Cardinals' complete 2025 NFL schedule
The Cardinals (who open the year at New Orleans and at home against Carolina) have the best odds of starting 2-0 in the NFL in my model, edging out the Bengals by about two percentage points. Weeks 16 (vs. Atlanta) and 17 (at Cincinnati) could prove to be an important stint in terms of Arizona's win total.
- Win Total: over 7.5 (+125)
- Make Playoffs: +150
- Win Division: +220
- Win Conference: +2800
- Win Super Bowl: +6000
- Falcons' complete 2025 NFL schedule
Sandwiched around their Week 5 bye are the three diciest games in the Falcons' schedule: They host Washington in Week 4, host Buffalo on Monday Night Football in Week 6 and play in San Francisco on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. The Falcons have a lot of volatility in their win-total projections, and most of it is driven by the play of second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
- Win Total: under 7.5 (+110)
- Make Playoffs: +190
- Win Division: +700
- Win Conference: +2800
- Win Super Bowl: +5500
- Cowboys' complete 2025 NFL schedule
Here's the Cowboys' toughest three-game stretch: In Week 12, they host the Eagles, welcome the Chiefs on Thanksgiving Day in Week 13 and then head to Detroit for a Thursday Night Football clash in Week 14. It's important to remember that if Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons, who each missed time in 2024, are available all season, Dallas' ceiling increases, especially if rookie right guard Tyler Booker is able to get acclimated. The first-round pick had the highest floor and was my highest-rated lineman at his position in this year's draft.
- Win Total: over 6.5 (-145)
- Make Playoffs: +240
- Win Division: +375
- Win Conference: +7000
- Win Super Bowl: +12500
- Panthers' complete 2025 NFL schedule
The Panthers are looking to build on their 2024 finish, when they won four of their final nine games, including two of their last three. Adding rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan to an offense that finished 23rd in scoring and 29th in total yards should help. Carolina's toughest stretch kicks off in late October, when they host the Bills in Week 8, travel to Green Bay in Week 9, play at San Francisco on Monday Night Football in Week 12 and host the Rams in Week 13 prior to a Week 14 bye.
- Win Total: under 5.5 (-115)
- Make Playoffs: +800
- Win Division: +3000
- Win Conference: +10000
- Win Super Bowl: +20000
- Giants' complete 2025 NFL schedule
Trying to win at Washington (in Week 1) and hosting Kansas City (on Sunday Night Football in Week 3) in the first three weeks of the season is tough in itself. That becomes a much tougher ask if rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart ends up being the team's starter. The Giants' schedule is punishing overall and especially so midway through the campaign, with back-to-back road games in Denver (Week 7) and Philadelphia (Week 8) and home games against San Francisco (Week 9) and Green Bay (Week 11) sandwiched around a trip to Chicago. The difficult sequence finally ends in Detroit in Week 12.
- Win Total: under 5.5 (-135)
- Make Playoffs: +500
- Win Division: +1200
- Win Conference: +10000
- Win Super Bowl: +20000
- Saints' complete 2025 NFL schedule
New Orleans' QB competition -- between rookie Tyler Shough and veterans Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, following Derek Carr's retirement -- means more uncertainty in my projections. The QB who wins the job will be rewarded with games against the Niners, Seahawks and Bills, all before the end of September. The state of the QB position drove the Saints' total down 1.4 wins, which in turn increased the win totals of several 2025 opponents, including the Titans, Bears, Patriots, Jets and the rest of the NFC South.
