Year 8 of the RB Index is upon us. Thanks to all of you who have stayed with us on the ride and, most importantly, agreed with all my takes and rankings.
So, now that we're officially in Week 1, it's time for me to make my predictions on which players will be among the league's 10 leading rushers -- just as I did at this point last year. Let's jump in.
I absolutely must put Barkley at the top of this list after his 2,000-yard campaign in 2024. Everything clicked for him in his first year in Philly. He ran behind a dominant offensive line that routinely opened lanes at the line of scrimmage before he relied on his own talent to do the rest. According to Next Gen Stats, Barkley had 829 rush yards before contact in 2024, the most in a season since at least 2017, which also helped him record a league-leading 46 carries of 10-plus yards. For a hot August minute, the offensive line was a concern for Philadelphia, but Landon Dickerson's return to the lineup helps set Barkley and the rest of the Eagles offense up for success.
I don't care that he's 31 years old -- no rushing list feels complete without King Henry. He has posted a top-10 finish in rushing yards in each of the last seven seasons, including a 2021 campaign in which he played just eight games. He has two rushing titles to his name (2019, 2020) and has finished second in rushing yards in each of the last three seasons. He returns to Baltimore for Year 10 to lead the NFL's top rushing attack with no signs of slowing down. Even with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins to the pass game and the healthy return of backup RB Keaton Mitchell, Henry will undoubtedly get his opportunities in Todd Monken's offense, especially late in games and late in the season. In his career as a starter, Henry averages 22.8 rush yards per game in the fourth quarter (most since 2000, min. 80 games) and 108.4 rush yards per game in December or later (also most since 2000, min. 25 games). There is no stopping this guy.
Despite handling more than 300 carries for the second time in his career in 2024, the seventh-year back recently said he's never felt better. That's a great sign for a Packers offense that runs through him. Green Bay continued to invest in its passing game this offseason by drafting receivers with two of its first three picks (Matthew Golden and Savion Williams), but I expect the run game to again be the focal point of Matt LaFleur's unit. We should see another highly productive year from Jacobs.
Robinson quietly broke out last season with an impressive 1,456 rushing yards and 14 rushing TDs. I say "quietly" because I feel like the second-year back was hardly talked about while Atlanta worked through a quarterback change before ultimately missing the playoffs for the seventh straight year. Right tackle Kaleb McGary's season-ending leg injury hurts the Falcons' offense (Elijah Wilkinson will start at RT), but Robinson's ability to evade defenders should allow him to -- at the very least -- repeat last year's production. He earned the fourth-most rush yards after contact (1,019) last season, and his 161 forced missed tackles on runs since 2023 are the second-most in the league behind only Derrick Henry.
The fact that Gibbs ranks fifth here despite sharing the backfield with David Montgomery speaks volumes about Gibbs' efficiency and big-play ability. The third-year pro improved all of his rushing output in 2024 from his rookie campaign, with 68 more carries, 467 more yards and six more TDs. New OC John Morton has plans to use Gibbs more in the pass game by lining him up out wide, but I still expect him to get most of his production on the ground.
After missing all but four games last season, McCaffrey enters Year 9 healthy, and that's the best news for San Francisco right now, as they are at far less than 100 percent at wide receiver entering the season. Kyle Shanahan will no doubt get back to leaning on his workhorse running back in hopes of returning to the top of the division. In his last fully healthy campaign in 2023, CMC led the league in rush yards, scrimmage yards and scrimmage TDs. Last season, McCaffrey recorded more than 100 scrimmage yards in each of his two full games played with Brock Purdy. When McCaffrey is healthy, he's one of the best players in the league. Period. He just needs to stay on the field.
Since he was drafted in 2020, Taylor has posted the second-most rushing yards (6,013) in the league, behind only Derrick Henry. Last season, he averaged 102.2 rush yards per game and ran for 11 TDs across 14 contests. Taylor should get plenty of touches again this fall with the Colts trotting out a new starting quarterback. In fact, I believe Taylor will benefit more with Daniel Jones under center than he would with Anthony Richardson on the field due to Jones being a better passer, which ultimately should allow Taylor to face lighter boxes more often. There are a lot of question marks facing the Colts offense heading into 2025, but Taylor isn't one of them.
After a pair of 1,100-yard rushing campaigns, Williams more than earned the three-year, $33 million extension he signed last month. Williams has been a key cog in Sean McVay's offensive machine, handling a career-high 316 carries last season. Obviously, the Rams' offensive success depends largely on an aging Matthew Stafford as he deals with a back injury that sidelined him for much of training camp. Look for Williams and the run game to be heavily leaned on, especially in the early part of the season.
During the pre-draft process, Jeanty sent a message to general managers across the league, advising them to take "the guy they can't tackle." He got the Raiders to bite at No. 6 overall, and it didn't take long for him to show that tackle-breaking ability in the preseason, running over a 49ers defender for a nice 13-yard gain. Knowing how Pete Carroll operates, Jeanty should get a ton of carries in his rookie year, even though the Raiders did overhaul their passing attack this offseason. These Raiders are built to run the ball, and they once again have a back who can handle a heavy workload.
Even with Najee Harris expected to play in Week 1 after missing training camp and the preseason, Hampton is in position to be the workhorse in Jim Harbaugh's offense. The rookie is a bigger and better version of J.K. Dobbins, who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards in 13 games with the Chargers last season. Hampton is going to find success right off the bat, and though OC Greg Roman is insistent that the team will use a committee of backs, Hampton should receive the bulk of the carries.
