The First Read

NFL Week 15 winners and losers: Bills, Bears earn key victories; Packers defense in trouble?

Published: Dec 15, 2025 at 01:18 AM

Jeffri Chadiha

NFL.com Columnist

In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season, including:

Top three risers/sliders from Week 15
Three games worthy of NFL Pro deep dives
Most intriguing game of Week 16
Updated MVP rankings

But to kick things off, biggest winners and losers from a Week 15 schedule with plenty of playoff implications ...

This was one of those weeks in the NFL when you were reminded how crazy this league can be. It's already been a wild year with all the parity and the rise of upstarts like the Patriots, Bears and Jaguars. Week 15 was a reminder of how much unpredictability still remains. You saw that in places like Tampa Bay and Carolina and certainly in New England, where the Bills sent a stark reminder that the AFC East is still open for business.

This was a week filled with important matchups. What we ultimately learned is that a lot can change in a matter of days in this league. That's why this edition of The First Read wants to go back to an old favorite -- winners and losers. It felt like the best way to make sense of what we just witnessed …

WINNERS

1) Matthew Stafford

Matthew Staffordsits at the top of the MVP race with New England falling to Buffalo on Sunday. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye seemed to be on the verge of taking a sizable lead when his team led the Bills, 21-0, in that contest. But then Buffalo stormed back and Maye wound up with his worst stat line of the season (14-for-23 for 155 yards and an interception). Stafford, on the other hand, passed for 368 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in a 41-34 win over the Detroit Lions. That now gives Stafford 37 touchdown passes and just five interceptions on the season. At 37 years old, he's enjoying the best year of his career and doing it for a team that is rolling. Maye could've helped himself immensely by beating Josh Allen and putting the Patriots in position to clinch the AFC East title. Instead, he failed in one of the few big moments he's had because of New England's soft schedule, while Stafford -- who lost star wide receiver Davante Adams to a hamstring injury on Sunday -- thrived in his showcase game.

2) Sean McDermott

Speaking of the Bills, their head coach had to be thrilled by the effort his team produced after falling behind early against New England. Buffalo has won the last five AFC East titles, and it proved why on Sunday: This team usually plays its best football in November and December. The Bills won seven of their last nine games in 2024. They ended the 2023 season on a five-game win streak, and the 2022 season on a seven-game win streak. This is what they do. It was equally important for McDermott to see his underwhelming defense make some key stops that allowed quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense to get this team back into the game. Of course, the Bills still need help to have a chance of winning the division. But there's something else that has to make McDermott feel better: As long as the Bills don't implode, they'll go into their first postseason under this head coach without any chance of seeing Kansas City in January.

3) Chicago Bears

The Bears have been bouncing all over the playoff picture these days, but they have to like where they sit right now. Chicago is now the No. 2 seed in the NFC after Sunday's win over Cleveland and Green Bay's loss to Denver. The Bears had been the top seed heading into last week but a defeat to the Packers dropped them all the way down to the seventh seed. Now that the Bears are back in position to potentially play playoff games at home in January, their circumstances are in a much better place. For one, they'll play a rematch with Green Bay on Saturday, and the Packers just took a major hit when edge rusher Micah Parsons sustained a torn ACL in a loss to Denver. Chicago also hosts the Lions in Week 17 and Detroit is two games behind the 10-4 Bears. If that's not enough, the Bears also hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles -- who are currently the No. 3 seed – because Chicago beat Philadelphia in a Black Friday game. These games won't be easy, but the Bears can set themselves up by handling their business.

4) Jesse Minter

The Chargers defensive coordinator is turning himself into a hot prospect for a head coaching job. One week after leading a unit that forced five turnovers in a Monday night win over Philadelphia, Minter watched his defense hold the Chiefs to 13 points in a victory that moved the Chargers one step closer to clinching a playoff spot. Kansas City generated just 239 total yards and committed two turnovers in that contest. Minter's defense also was able to exploit an injury-plagued Chiefs offensive line to produce five sacks. The play of the Chargers defense has been crucial to this team's success because Los Angeles has been dealing with its own health issues, both along its offensive line and with quarterback Justin Herbert (who's been playing with a fractured left hand). Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh helped launch the career of one of his former defensive coordinators at Michigan, as Mike Macdonald has done great things in Seattle. Minter could be next in line if his defense continues to perform at a high level.

LOSERS

1) Kansas City Chiefs

There will be a long offseason in Kansas City after the way the Chiefs watched their playoff hopes -- and certainly this dynastic era -- die in Sunday's loss to the Chargers. The major news was the torn ACL that ended the season of star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. There's now plenty of uncertainty about when he'll be ready to play for this team next season. The Chiefs also were officially eliminated from playoff contention with the Charger loss (combined with wins by the Bills, Jaguars and Texans). It tells you how bad the Chiefs' season has been when they still need a variety of things to happen to be eliminated, and all of them ultimately occur. The way that game ended -- with a number of other Chiefs either needing medical attention or leaving the game for certain stretches -- creates the question of how bad this season will become. Kansas City is currently 6-8 and playing without the one player who always gave this team hope. It's not impossible to think this squad doesn't win another game this year.

2) Jeff Hafley

The loss of Micah Parsons will be seismic for the Packers and specifically, Hafley's defense. Parsons changed the entire trajectory of that unit when he arrived in a trade from Dallas prior to the season-opener. Suddenly, a defense that had all sorts of issues with pressuring opposing quarterbacks had a one-man wrecking ball working off the edge every week. Parsons already had produced 12.5 sacks this season, and he surely was responsible for helping his teammates accumulate many others. That's all gone today. Hafley will have to scheme, adjust and ask more of lesser talents to make this work. That doesn't mean the Packers will be lousy moving forward. It just means they lost their best chance to be dominant.

3) Dave Canales

How do you lose that game? That is what every Carolina fan must be asking after the Panthers suffered a 20-17 loss to New Orleans on Sunday. All the momentum favored Canales and his team coming into the game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers incredibly lost to the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night, so all the Panthers had to do was beat a 3-10 team to create an ideal scenario. If the Panthers had beaten the Saints, they would be playing Tampa Bay next week with a chance to clinch their first NFC South title since 2015 (and first playoff appearance since 2017). Now Canales has to hope his team can do this the hard way. They'll play the Buccaneers this week and then again in the season-finale. The Panthers still have a good shot of accomplishing their goal, but Canales watched a better opportunity evaporate right before his eyes.

4) Everyone who thought Philip Rivers would flop

Admit it -- Philip Rivers did much better than most folks imagined he would do after returning to the NFL at age 44. The man hadn't played in five years, but he somehow did enough to give Indianapolis a chance to win a huge game in Seattle against the Seahawks' vaunted defense. Rivers looked every bit his age when it came to how he moved and pushed the ball down the field. What he didn't do was embarrass himself. He played with savvy, managed the game as best he could and drove the Colts into a position where they kicked a go-ahead field goal with just under a minute left. Give Sam Darnold and the Seahawks credit for driving into position for a game-winning field goal from Jason Myers. Even though Rivers ended the game with a desperation interception in the final seconds, he did enough to make the Colts not look crazy for bringing him back.

THREE UP

Rank

Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars · QB

Lawrence is looking like a player who is taking a huge step in his career. Even for those people who scoff at success against the lowly New York Jets, the day Lawrence produced -- 330 passing yards, 51 rushing yards and six touchdowns (five passing) -- was impressive. He’s now led the Jaguars to five straight wins, while throwing nine touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last three games. There have been a lot of ups and downs with Lawrence over the last few years. He’s now getting hot at the right time for a team that is 10-4 and in first place in the AFC South.

Rank

Tyler Shough

New Orleans Saints · QB

The New Orleans Saints didn’t start the season believing in their rookie quarterback, but he’s handling himself pretty well these days. Shough threw for 272 yards, rushed for a team-high 32 yards and led the Saints on the drive that set up the game-winning field goal in Sunday’s 20-17 win over Carolina. He also ran for two touchdowns -- including the game-winning score -- in a victory over Tampa Bay a week earlier. That’s two victories over the two teams battling for the NFC South title. The Saints are 3-3 after starting 1-7 and benching Spencer Rattler in favor of Shough.

Rank

Tuli Tuipulotu

Los Angeles Chargers · LB

It’s shame that Tuipulotu plays a position filled with stars because he deserves more attention than he receives. The Chargers edge rusher picked up two sacks -- along with three tackles for loss and four total quarterback hits -- in Sunday’s win over Kansas City, and he’s been a tone-setter for this defense all year. Tuipulotu now has 12 sacks on the season, which ranks him among the most disruptive pass rushers in the league. For a team that doesn’t rely heavily on blitzing, his growth has been a huge factor in the Chargers defense being a top-10 unit.

THREE DOWN

Rank

Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals · QB

It’s been a rough two weeks for the Bengals quarterback. Burrow threw two huge interceptions in a loss to Buffalo last week -- and spent his mid-week press conference talking about how he wasn’t having any fun -- and then he produced what he called “one of the worst games” he’s played in a 24-0 loss to Baltimore on Sunday. Burrow didn’t throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season, and he was intercepted twice, including a pick-six. The Bengals, by the way, also were officially eliminated from the postseason.

Rank

Emeka Egbuka

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · WR

The same rookie wide receiver who exploded upon the NFL earlier this season is struggling to find his way these days. Egbuka had 40 receptions for 677 yards and six touchdowns through his first nine games. He’s had 18 receptions for 193 yards and no touchdowns over his last five, including four catches for 64 yards in the Thursday night loss to Atlanta. There have been a couple factors that have played into that slump -- including a hamstring injury and the need for the Bucs to feature him more when other receivers were injured earlier this year -- but his decline is noteworthy. Egbuka was once a strong favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Rank

Rico Dowdle

Carolina Panthers · RB

Like Egbuka, Dowdle has cooled off at the wrong time of year. He made all kinds of noise in the middle of the season, when he stepped in for the injured Chuba Hubbard and ran for 652 yards over a five-game stretch. But after gaining just 49 yards on 16 carries in Sunday's loss to New Orleans, Dowdle hasn’t been nearly as dangerous. He’s only rushed for 243 yards in his last five games, averaging 3.2 yards per carry.

WORTHY OF NFL PRO DEEP DIVES

Bills over Patriots. Buffalo overcomes a 21-0 deficit to keep its AFC East title hopes alive and end New England's 10-game win streak.
Falcons over Buccaneers. Atlanta pulls off a miraculous comeback that incudes converting a fourth-and-14 in the final minute to set up the game-winning field goal by Zane Gonzalez.
Seahawks over Colts. Seattle needs a 56-yard field goal from Seattle's Jason Myers with 18 seconds remaining to spoil 44-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers' return to the NFL.

MOST INTRIGUING GAME OF WEEK 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7-7

Carolina Panthers

7-7

This will be the first of two games in the next three weeks that will decide the NFC South. Tampa Bay has won the last four division titles, but it has been more vulnerable than ever this season. Injuries have plagued the Bucs and a meltdown loss to Atlanta on Thursday night didn’t help matters. Carolina has been one of the pleasant surprises of this season, but that upset loss to the Saints was a gut punch. The Panthers haven’t reached the postseason since 2017. This game will reveal how real they actually are.

MVP WATCH

A simple ranking of the top five candidates, which will be updated weekly, depending on performance. Here is how it stands heading into Week 16 (with DraftKings odds as of 1 a.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 15):

Rank