This is a look at the first-round order for the 2023 NFL Draft heading into Week 15 of the 2022 NFL season, along with the top three needs for each team. The order is determined by record, using strength of schedule as the first tiebreaker (click here to see a full list of the draft-order tiebreakers). Keep in mind -- teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today are marked as PL (short for playoffs) in the order below. The draft order for playoff teams is determined by the results of postseason play.
Arrows reflect movement from last week's order.
NOTE: The NFL announced in August that the Miami Dolphins will forfeit their 2023 first-round pick and 2024 third-round pick following an investigation into whether the team violated league policies pertaining to the integrity of the game.
Biggest needs: QB, WR, OL
Week 15 opponent: vs. Chiefs
EE: Davis Mills hasn’t been as terrible as some would lead you to believe, but that’s not a reason to skip taking a potential franchise quarterback with one of the team’s two first-round picks. In fact, Mills’ starting experience, passable play and cheap contract could allow the Texans to draft a potential successor who might not be ready to start immediately.
Broncos' record: 3-10 (.485)
Broncos' Week 15 opponent: vs. Cardinals
Seahawks' biggest needs: Edge, LB, DT
DP: Denver’s pick, sent to the Seahawks in the Russell Wilson trade, leapfrogs Chicago’s in the draft order after the Broncos lost to the Chiefs while the Bears were on bye. Come April, Seattle should find itself in great position to address its biggest vulnerability, inside the trenches.
NOTE: See the playoff teams section of this article for analysis of the Broncos' needs.
Biggest needs: Edge, DL, OL
Week 15 opponent: vs. Eagles
DP: In addition to helping Justin Fields on offense, the Bears have to breathe life into their pass rush this offseason. Chicago ranks last in sacks (16), QB pressure rate (20.5%) and QB pressures (76).
Saints' record: 4-9 (.497)
Saints' Week 15 opponent: vs. Falcons
Eagles' biggest needs: DB, Edge, DL
DP: Clearly, the biggest needs for Philly figure, at the moment, to be on defense, but the outlook could change come the spring. Miles Sanders and Isaac Seumalo (contract voids) are potential free agents.
NOTE: See the bottom of this article for analysis of the Saints' needs.
Rams' record: 4-9 (.521)
Rams' Week 15 opponent: at Packers
Lions' biggest needs: DB, DL, QB
DP: Everything’s coming up Jared Goff heading into the final stretch of the regular season. I’m not sure the Lions can be certain they have a long-term answer under center, but quarterback moves to the back of the line on the needs list for now.
NOTE: See the bottom of this article for analysis of the Rams' needs.
Biggest needs: OL, CB, Edge
Week 15 opponent: at Broncos
DP: It might be a moot point for this season after Kyler Murray’s injury on Monday night, but Arizona has to prioritize doing a better job of keeping the pocket clean if it’s going to get the most out of its QB1 in the future. Entering Week 14, Murray had a 12.8 passer rating when pressured in 2022 (worst among 33 qualified QBs) with no TD passes and 6 interceptions on such throws, per Next Gen Stats.
Biggest needs: QB, WR, OT
Week 15 opponent: at Vikings
EE: Three straight losses have moved the Colts up the draft pecking order, which means Indianapolis might be in a stronger position to draft a quarterback capable of replacing Matt Ryan. There’s still a long way to go, but their chances of landing a passer early in the draft seem to be looking up.
Biggest needs: OT, Edge, DL
Week 15 opponent: vs. Patriots
EE: We can’t overlook the defensive needs for a team that is allowing more than 24 points per game and ranks near the bottom of the league in pass yards allowed, takeaways and sack rate. The Raiders will be seeking game-changing talents, most likely up front to keep Maxx Crosby as free from double teams as possible.
Biggest needs: Edge, WR, CB
Week 15 opponent: at Saints
DP: There are multiple strong contenders for the third spot on the Falcons’ needs list, and cornerback depth is certainly one of them. Atlanta has four soon-to-be-free-agents at the position.
Biggest needs: QB, CB, TE
Week 15 opponent: vs. Steelers
DP: Whether it's a top-three need is debatable, but the Panthers surely have plenty of room for improvement at the tight end position. They have the second-fewest pass yards on throws to tight ends in the league (391).
Biggest needs: DL, OT, CB
Week 15 opponent: vs. Cowboys
EE: Even after a defense-heavy draft in 2022, the Jaguars still could use some help opposite Tyson Campbell at cornerback. The Shaquill Griffin signing hasn’t panned out as hoped, and he’s now on injured reserve. Darious Williams and Tre Herndon -- an impending free agent -- also have struggled in extended roles.
Browns' record: 5-8 (.524)
Browns' Week 15 opponent: vs. Ravens
See Pick No. 1 for analysis of the Texans' needs and the bottom of this article for analysis of the Browns' needs.
Biggest needs: OL, CB, DL
Week 15 opponent: at Panthers
EE: Pittsburgh must prioritize the offensive line to protect Kenny Pickett. The Steelers have spots they can upgrade both inside and outside up front, so it’s feasible that they even could use multiple picks to address this spot.
Biggest needs: S, WR, OL
Week 15 opponent: vs. Rams
DP: Safety leads the list of offseason priorities for the Packers with two of their top players at the position headed for free agency -- Rudy Ford will be a UFA and Adrian Amos’ contract voids -- and only one year remaining on Darnell Savage’s contract.
Week 15 opponent: at Jets
NOTE: See Pick No. 5 for analysis of the Lions' needs.
Week 15 opponent: vs. 49ers
NOTE: See Pick No. 2 for analysis of the Seahawks' needs.
Biggest needs: OL, S, QB
Week 15 opponent: vs. Lions
EE: One way or another, the Jets will be forced to address offensive tackle in the offseason. Duane Brown turns 38 next season. George Fant and Cedric Ogbuehi both are scheduled for free agency. Mekhi Becton’s future in New York is a giant unknown. Rookie fourth-rounder Max Mitchell recently was diagnosed with blood clots. Expect multiple new faces at tackle in 2023.
Biggest needs: QB, DB, DL
Week 15 opponent: vs. Bengals
DP: The wheels have come off the Tampa Bay offense -- and potentially the team’s 2022 season -- just as word is spreading that Tom Brady might be open to playing elsewhere next season. The Bucs should be doing their homework on the draft’s quarterback class, regardless.
Biggest needs: OL, WR, DB
Week 15 opponent: at Raiders
EE: The Patriots typically are chock full of defensive backs, but there isn’t an endless supply going forward in New England. Devin McCourty could opt to retire this offseason, Jonathan Jones is due for free agency and Kyle Dugger is entering a contract year in 2023. Only twice since the 2000 NFL Draft has Bill Belichick gone a year without selecting at least one DB.
Biggest needs: OL, TE, CB
Week 15 opponent: at Chargers
EE: Assuming Mike Vrabel reels in more personnel say following the firing of GM Jon Robinson, I’d expect him to make blocking -- both on the offensive line and at tight end -- an area of concentration this offseason. Taylor Lewan is a cap-casualty candidate, three current OL starters are ticketed for free agency this spring (Nate Davis, Aaron Brewer and Dennis Daley) and there’s no dominant run-blocking tight end on the roster for 2023.
Biggest needs: QB, CB, OL
Week 15 opponent: vs. Giants
DP: The Commanders are sticking with Taylor Heinicke, even with Carson Wentz returning from injury, and now the stage is set for Heinicke to try to make his case that he should be the guy in the 2023 season, as well. He gets a Sunday night meeting with the reeling Giants next, but two of the top three scoring defenses in the league await him after that (at the Niners in Week 16 and versus the Cowboys in Week 18).
49ers' record: 9-4 (.414)
49ers' Week 15 opponent: at Seahawks
Broncos' needs: OL, WR, DL
EE: How the Broncos address their offensive line this offseason will be interesting. Garett Bolles and Graham Glasgow both carry high cap numbers in 2023, Lloyd Cushenberry has underperformed and Dalton Risner, Cameron Fleming, Calvin Anderson and Billy Turner are all slated for free agency. There will be changes up front.
NOTE: See the bottom of this article for analysis of the 49ers' and Dolphins' needs.
Biggest needs: WR, CB, Edge
Week 15 opponent: at Browns
EE: The biggest changes could come at cornerback, where there are multiple pending free agents, led by Marcus Peters, who has had his struggles. Even if he’s somehow back on an affordable deal, the Ravens likely will want to bolster this position with some young talent capable of playing outside.
Biggest needs: DB, OT, TE
Week 15 opponent: at Buccaneers
EE: The Bengals failed to come to an agreement on a long-term deal with Jessie Bates this offseason, and now both he and Vonn Bell are slated to hit free agency in 2023. It’s certainly possible at least one of the two won’t be back. First-rounder Dax Hill is in place, but the safety depth could be thin.
Biggest needs: OT, WR, Edge
Week 15 opponent: at Texans
EE: The Chiefs always have their eyes open for pass-rush talent and likely will consider their options there, even after using a first-round pick on George Karlaftis. Free-agent-to-be Carlos Dunlap turns 34 in 2023, and Frank Clark’s contract and diminishing returns could make him expendable.
Biggest needs: DB, WR, DL
Week 15 opponent: vs. Colts
DP: Minnesota dropped below Detroit for the 32nd-ranked total defense on Sunday in the most recent example of why upgrades are needed on that side of the ball. The backend is particularly leaky -- the Vikings have now allowed 330-plus passing yards to Mac Jones, Mike White and Jared Goff in consecutive weeks.
Biggest needs: OL, S, DT
Week 15 opponent: vs. Dolphins
EE: The Bills have received good contributions from their defensive line this season but, as of now, they will have three interior linemen entering contract seasons in 2023 -- Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle. Even if Oliver -- the last true DT the Bills have drafted -- signs an extension this coming offseason, there might be a need for more bulk inside.
Week 15 opponent: at Bears
NOTE: See Pick No. 4 for analysis of the Eagles' needs.
TEAMS CURRENTLY WITHOUT A FIRST-ROUND PICK
Biggest needs: DT, S, WR
Week 15 opponent: vs. Ravens
EE: We’ve harped on the defensive interior needs, but what about safety? The Browns are no longer flush with cap space, so there likely will be some veterans cut loose. John Johnson has been underwhelming, so he’s one candidate. Grant Delpit also has underperformed as a former second-rounder.
Biggest needs: Edge, OL, DB
Week 15 opponent: at Packers
DP: It’s not one of the top needs for the Rams right now, but would they consider spending a pick on a quarterback to develop behind Matthew Stafford in 2023? If Week 14 hero Baker Mayfield leaves for a better opportunity to start next year, perhaps Los Angeles drafts a passer for the first time since selecting Jared Goff in 2016.
Biggest needs: OL, CB, RB
Week 15 opponent: at Bills
EE: This obviously will change at some point, but the Dolphins currently have zero running backs under contract for 2023. Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed are all scheduled for free agency, although Ahmed will be a restricted free agent. Drafting another back could replenish the position depending on how many rushers Miami retains.
Biggest needs: QB, DL, WR
Week 15 opponent: vs. Falcons
DP: It probably won’t be a top-three priority given the holes elsewhere, but finding a backup running back should factor into the Saints’ plans this offseason. Mark Ingram, currently dealing with a knee injury that could sideline him for the rest of the season, is in Year 12 and his deal expires in 2023.
Biggest needs: OL, DL, DB
Week 15 opponent: at Seahawks
DP: The 49ers’ offensive line has played well in front of three different starting quarterbacks this season, but will John Lynch and Co. be able to keep the unit together with right tackle Mike McGlinchey (and starting center Jake Brendel) in a contract year?