2023 NFL Draft order: Texans' grip on No. 1 overall pick loosens after Week 16 win, Bears' loss

This is a look at the first-round order for the 2023 NFL Draft heading into Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season, along with the top three needs for each team. The order is determined by record, using strength of schedule as the first tiebreaker (click here to see a full list of the draft-order tiebreakers). Keep in mind -- teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today are marked as PL (short for playoffs) in the order below. The draft order for playoff teams is determined by the results of postseason play.

Arrows reflect movement from last week's order.

NOTE: The NFL announced in August that the Miami Dolphins will forfeit their 2023 first-round pick and 2024 third-round pick following an investigation into whether the team violated league policies pertaining to the integrity of the game.

Pick
1
Houston Texans
2-12-1 · Strength of schedule: .504

Biggest needs: QB, OL, DL

Week 17 opponent: vs. Jaguars


EE: The Texans are suddenly only half a game up in the race for the No. 1 overall pick, which at least raises the possibility that they don’t take a quarterback with their first selection in Round 1. If that scenario unfolds, we wouldn’t be shocked at all if they used a high pick on a defensive enforcer to help bolster a line that has been threaded together with various pieces.

Pick
2
Chicago Bears
3-12 · .558

Biggest needs: Edge, DL, OL

Week 17 opponent: at Lions


DP: On the heels of the Texans improving to 2-12-1 on Saturday, the first overall pick is in play for the 3-12 Bears with two games to go. Chicago last led off a draft in 1947, when George Halas’ team selected Oklahoma State halfback Bob Fenimore, who retired after one NFL season.

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE DENVER BRONCOS


Broncos' record: 4-11 (.462)

Broncos' Week 17 opponent: at Chiefs

Seahawks' biggest needs: Edge, QB, DT


DP: Perhaps free-agent-to-be Geno Smith rediscovers the magic with winnable home games against the Jets and Rams remaining on the schedule, but he and the Seahawks are fading heading into the final two weeks. He’s now thrown five INTs in the last five games (four of them losses) after tossing just four in his first 10 starts.


NOTE: See the playoff teams section of this article for analysis of the Broncos' needs.

Pick
4
1
Arizona Cardinals
4-11 · .520

Biggest needs: OL, CB, Edge

Week 17 opponent: at Falcons


DP: As the Cardinals continue to rise in the draft order, trading down might start to look like an appealing option if, say, QB-needy teams come calling. Arizona could use as much draft capital as it can get and is down a couple picks next year due to trades for Cody Ford and Trayvon Mullen.  

Pick
5
1
Indianapolis Colts
4-10-1 · .529

Biggest needs: QB, OT, Edge

Week 17 opponent: at Giants


EE: One way or another, the Colts must add a quarterback this offseason. The benching of Matt Ryan for the second time this season -- and the promotion of Sam Ehlinger to the QB2 spot – could suggest that the team will take the $18 million dead-cap hit on Ryan in 2023. The cheapest and easiest way to mitigate that is to add a rookie QB salary to the books.

Pick
6
1
Atlanta Falcons
5-10 · .478

Biggest needs: QB, Edge, WR

Week 17 opponent: vs. Cardinals


DP: Quarterback returns to the needs list this week. With the Falcons moving up in the draft order and Desmond Ridder unable to spark the offense so far, drafting a quarterback in Round 1 should be on the table for Atlanta.

Pick
7
3
Detroit Lions

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE LOS ANGELES RAMS


Rams' record: 5-10 (.502)

Rams' Week 17 opponent: at Chargers

Lions' biggest needs: DB, DL, QB


DP: The Panthers ran over the Lions on Saturday and offered the world a reminder that Detroit’s defense, despite its improvement in the second half of the season, still has vulnerabilities. Carolina racked up a franchise-record 320 rushing yards in the 37-23 rout, with 60 percent of its carries going inside the tackles.


NOTE: See the bottom of this article for analysis of the Rams' needs.

Pick
8
2
Las Vegas Raiders
6-9 · .422

Biggest needs: OL, Edge, DB

Week 17 opponent: vs. 49ers


EE: We should know whether to add quarterback to this list fairly quickly this offseason. Derek Carr’s salary will become fully guaranteed just a few days after the Super Bowl, and the Raiders could scramble to put a trade together if Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler are not convinced he’s the QB to lead them to the promised land. That obviously would shake up the Raiders’ entire offseason forecast. 

Pick
9
1
Carolina Panthers
6-9 · .460

Biggest needs: QB, CB, TE

Week 17 opponent: at Buccaneers


DP: The Panthers, who have a screaming need for a franchise quarterback, were holding a top-five pick a month ago. Now they’re a couple wins away from picking outside the top 18 as the NFC South champions. The next two weeks figure to have a massive impact on the direction of the team.

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS


Saints' record: 6-9 (.484)

Saints' Week 17 opponent: at Eagles

Eagles' biggest needs: DB, Edge, DL


DP: The Eagles have the unique opportunity to lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC and help their draft positioning with a win in Week 17 since they hold the Saints’ first-rounder. The last thing Philadelphia wants is to lose a second straight game and help New Orleans get a step closer to winning the NFC South. A division title for the Saints would move that pick outside of the top 18.


NOTE: See the bottom of this article for analysis of the Saints' needs.

Pick
11
1
Houston Texans

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE CLEVELAND BROWNS


Browns' record: 6-9 (.527)

Browns' Week 17 opponent: at Commanders


See Pick No. 1 for analysis of the Texans' needs and the bottom of this article for analysis of the Browns' needs.

Pick
12
3
Seattle Seahawks
7-8 · .469

Week 17 opponent: vs. Jets


NOTE: See Pick No. 3 for analysis of the Seahawks' needs.

Pick
13
7
Tennessee Titans
7-8 · .493

Biggest needs: OL, WR, TE

Week 17 opponent: vs. Cowboys


EE: Trading A.J. Brown changed the course of the Titans’ 2022 season dramatically, and it’s clear that they need more big-play options in the passing game. But there suddenly are a million unknowns heading into this offseason, with GM Jon Robinson gone, the Titans losing five straight and the future at quarterback uncertain. Is this fully Mike Vrabel’s roster now? Add that to the list of huge questions lingering in Nashville. 

Pick
14
2
New England Patriots
7-8 · .496

Biggest needs: OT, WR, DB

Week 17 opponent: vs. Dolphins


EE: We could see an offensive tackle or cornerback rising to the top of the draft shopping list in 2023. Isaiah Wynn will be a free agent, and Trent Brown isn’t a shoo-in to return. Young CBs Marcus Jones and Jack Jones have opened eyes, but the Patriots need more at the position.

Pick
15
2
Green Bay Packers
7-8 · .524

Biggest needs: S, TE, Edge

Week 17 opponent: vs. Vikings


DP: For now, edge rusher replaces offensive line on the needs list following the news of Elgton Jenkinscontract extension. The Packers should be strengthening their depth at the position with Rashan Gary coming off an ACL tear in the final year of his rookie deal next season.

Pick
16
2
Pittsburgh Steelers
7-8 · .531

Biggest needs: OL, CB, DL

Week 17 opponent: at Ravens


EE: The Steelers have slipped outside the top 15 in the draft order after winning four out of their last five games, which could dramatically affect whom they target in Round 1 next spring. There still could be solid options at offensive tackle available, but Pittsburgh might be out of range of the top prospects at defensive tackle and cornerback if the pick keeps dropping.

Pick
17
New York Jets
7-8 · .533

Biggest needs: OL, S, QB

Week 17 opponent: at Seahawks


EE: The quarterback situation has officially reached panic levels. There’s a chance Zach Wilson doesn’t take another meaningful snap for the Jets. Assuming Mike White is back (he’s due to become a free agent), and possibly Chris Streveler, it’s clear that more help is needed. But after the Wilson pick, would the Jets still be willing to draft a QB? Or would they go the veteran route and keep attacking roster depth at other spots in the draft?

Pick
18
Detroit Lions
7-8 · .569

Week 17 opponent: vs. Bears


NOTE: See Pick No. 7 for analysis of the Lions' needs.

Pick
PL
8
Jacksonville Jaguars
7-8 · .504

Biggest needs: DL, OT, CB

Week 17 opponent: at Texans


EE: With Cam Robinson on injured reserve, Walker Little has stepped in and shown some promise. The two of them could be the starting offensive tackles in 2023, with Jawaan Taylor due to hit free agency. If that happens, the Jaguars likely would need to draft a swing tackle to step into Little’s former role.

Pick
PL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7-8 · .507

Biggest needs: QB, DB, OL

Week 17 opponent: vs. Panthers


DP: An offensive line plagued by injuries all season should receive some reinforcements, especially with Shaq Mason and Donovan Smith a year away from free agency.

Pick
PL
Washington Commanders
7-7-1 · .533

Biggest needs: QB, CB, OL

Week 17 opponent: vs. Browns


DP: The Taylor Heinicke honeymoon appears to be over. A lack of clarity at the quarterback position -- when the top players at the position are healthy -- in the middle of a playoff race is not ideal and reinforces the need for a definitive answer under center.

Pick
PL
New York Giants
8-6-1 · .527

Biggest needs: QB, WR, interior OL

Week 17 opponent: vs. Colts


DP: There were positives from Daniel Jones, even in a losing effort on Saturday. He posted the highest completion rate (71.4%) of his career in a game in which he attempted 40 or more passes, and that number would have been higher if he had a more reliable receiving corps. Will the Giants extend him, tag him or let him hit the market?

Pick
PL
Los Angeles Chargers
9-6 · .453

Biggest needs: DB, WR, Edge

Week 17 opponent: vs. Rams


EE: Cornerback is an area the Chargers could choose to attack high in the draft, with J.C. Jackson struggling badly as a big-money free-agent signing prior to his injury, Asante Samuel Jr. turning in an up-and-down season and Michael Davis a year from free agency. But don’t forget about safety. Derwin James is now a three-time Pro Bowl selectee, but he's long struggled to stay healthy. Nasir Adderley is not consistently standing out and JT Woods has barely seen the field as a rookie.

Pick
PL
Baltimore Ravens
10-5 · .478

Biggest needs: CB, WR, Edge

Week 17 opponent: vs. Steelers


EE: The Ravens have been rolling with Sammy Watkins, DeSean Jackson and Demarcus Robinson (the current WR leader with 425 yards receiving) as their top wideouts with Rashod Bateman, Tylan Wallace and Devin Duvernay on injured reserve down the stretch. James Proche and Duvernay have been mostly frozen out of the offensive game plan when available. It’s clear they could use more insurance here.

Pick
PL
Denver Broncos

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS THROUGH THE MIAMI DOLPHINS


49ers' record: 11-4 (.424)

49ers' Week 17 opponent: at Raiders

Broncos' needs: OL, WR, CB


EE: The Broncos’ collapse this season has highlighted several areas of need on the roster, and it’s gotten so bad that we're wondering about Russell Wilson’s future, even with a contract that likely tethers him to them for years. Several other spots could see overhauls, with the offensive line likely taking precedence because of the sheer number of spots that could need fixing. 


NOTE: See the bottom of this article for analysis of the 49ers' and Dolphins' needs.

Pick
PL
Cincinnati Bengals
11-4 · .498

Biggest needs: DB, OT, TE

Week 17 opponent: vs. Bills


EE: What’s the long-term plan for 2022 first-rounder Daxton Hill? It’s tricky to figure out, but we’d guess safety is the plan. He’s played nickel corner out of need, such as against Tampa Bay, and that’s what he did a lot of in college. But assuming the back end is his most likely role in 2023 (with both Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell slated for free agency), the Bengals likely will need to attack the depth at cornerback. 

Pick
PL
Dallas Cowboys
11-4 · .518

Biggest needs: DB, OL, WR

Week 17 opponent: at Titans


DP: Perhaps it’s a short-term cold streak but keep an eye on the Cowboys’ pass rush. Dallas ranks third in the league in sacks this season, but it has only one sack in its last three games and is the only team with a sack rate lower than 2.7% over that span (0.9%).

Pick
PL
Kansas City Chiefs
12-3 · .471

Biggest needs: OT, Edge, DB

Week 17 opponent: vs. Broncos


EE: One area we’ve not addressed much here is safety. It’s a sneaky-big need when you consider that both Juan Thornhill and Deon Bush are set to become free agents in March. Thornhill obviously is the more valuable of the two. The Chiefs do have Justin Reid and 2022 second-rounder Bryan Cook on the books next year, but it’s debatable if the Chiefs would be in good shape if they let Thornhill cash in elsewhere.

Pick
PL
Minnesota Vikings
12-3 · .500

Biggest needs: DB, DL, WR

Week 17 opponent: at Packers


DP: One thing that could play a significant role in setting the Vikings’ draft strategy for 2023: the extensions they’re able (or unable) to strike this offseason with players due to reach free agency after next season. Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter have contracts that void in 2024. The deals for T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Hicks, Eric Kendricks and Ezra Cleveland are due to expire then, too.

Pick
PL
Buffalo Bills
12-3 · .502

Biggest needs: OL, S, WR

Week 17 opponent: at Bengals


EE: Stefon Diggs is one of the very best at what he does in the NFL, and Gabe Davis has become a mostly reliable big-play threat on the outside. The problem is with the depth. Isaiah McKenzie has not inspired a ton of confidence as his role has shrunk of late. Khalil Shakir could be a good one, flashing at times, but he’s been quiet production-wise since Week 5. Drafting a wideout in 2023 also would allow them a fallback option as Davis approaches free agency in 2024.

Pick
PL
Philadelphia Eagles
13-2 · .473

Week 17 opponent: vs. Saints


NOTE: See Pick No. 10 for analysis of the Eagles' needs.

TEAMS CURRENTLY WITHOUT A FIRST-ROUND PICK

TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE HOUSTON TEXANS


Biggest needs: DT, S, WR

Week 17 opponent: at Commanders


EE: Deshaun Watson has completed 71 passes since returning, and only 10 of them have gone to wide receivers not named Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns really could use multiple receivers to step up next season. Assuming David Bell is one of them on the outside, Cleveland’s biggest void might be in the slot. 

TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE DETROIT LIONS


Biggest needs: Edge, OL, DB

Week 17 opponent: at Chargers


DP: It’s probably not going to register as a top-three need as long as Aaron Donald is around, but the interior defensive line could see its depth diminish this offseason. Greg Gaines is due to become a free agent and A’Shawn Robinson’s contract voids in 2023.

TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS TO THE DENVER BRONCOS


Biggest needs: OL, CB, RB

Week 17 opponent: at Patriots


EE: We’ll be fascinated to see what decisions the Dolphins make at running back this offseason. They continue to not commit to the ground game -- with two backs who have extensive experience running a version of the Mike McDaniel system.

TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES


Biggest needs: QB, DL, interior OL

Week 17 opponent: at Eagles


DP: The Saints probably need to be aggressive in the defensive end market two years after spending a first-round pick on Payton Turner, who has three sacks in 12 games since entering the league. The contracts for Marcus Davenport and Tanoh Kpassagnon void after this season, while those of Cam Jordan and Carl Granderson void after next season.

TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE MIAMI DOLPHINS


Biggest needs: OL, DL, DB

Week 17 opponent: at Raiders


DP: They’ll have limited draft capital in 2023 due to trades -- the 49ers are the only team that doesn’t currently hold a pick in the first two rounds -- but the secondary could become a focus. Veterans Tashaun Gipson and Jimmie Ward are among the defensive backs in a contract year.

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