Remember when it was unusual for an NFL team to fire its head coach in the middle of the season? The thinking then was that an NFL season is not long enough for a coaching change to impact results, the way coaching changes in the NBA or MLB can, with those leagues playing so many more games.
That's all shifted as the cacophony that surrounds each failing regime grows louder, amplified by a news cycle on loop and a social media brew of hyperbole and impatience. Every loss is a crisis, every poor decision is a catastrophe and even the most stoic owners get swept up.
That's part of why there were already three head coaching jobs open with six weeks remaining in the regular season. Another reason: team owners want a jump on the hiring cycle. With rules in place governing when franchises can talk to coaches who are part of playoff teams and the requirement for any candidate pool to include diversity, owners with vacancies want to have time to start vetting prospects and, in the case of candidates who are currently unemployed, perhaps even begin the interviews. The result is that the hiring cycle -- which was once a blizzard of activity squeezed into a few days before the playoffs even began -- has now stretched out over many weeks. That's not a bad thing. Slowing down almost certainly means newer faces have a chance to enter the mix, and avoiding a frenzy might -- we can only hope -- help prevent teams from making bad decisions that, as in other areas of life, are the result of a rush to judgment.
There were eight head-coaching vacancies at the end of the 2023 season -- representing a quarter of the entire league -- and it was a good cycle for diversity. Four of the jobs (in Atlanta, Las Vegas, Carolina, New England) went to minority candidates. League officials, though, remain concerned about the dearth of offensive coordinators of color, because that is the most popular pipeline that produces head coaches.
This hiring cycle has already featured one bombshell development. When Bill Belichick accepted the job at the University of North Carolina, it removed the biggest and most intriguing name from the NFL pool. Would he have had suitors after being passed over last offseason, following his departure from New England? Which job would have appealed to him most? We'll never know. But Belichick's absence means that one of his former players, former Tennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel, could be the most hotly pursued among candidates who have already been on the job. Among the newbies, Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who drew plenty of interest last offseason, will likely be the most sought after again.
Here is our very subjective ranking of the openings. It will be updated as jobs are filled.
When Bears president Kevin Warren said the team's opening would be the most coveted, he wasn't just speaking the company line. There is a lot to like about this job -- starting, of course, with quarterback Caleb Williams. The chance to mold a young quarterback should be appealing for any coach from the offensive side of the ball, and there are other talented players on the roster, like receivers Rome Odunze and DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet. The offensive line has to be improved, but the Bears are currently projected to be near the top of the league in salary-cap space in 2025. With the worst of the rebuild apparently over, the new coach should be able to score immediate improvement. One big hurdle for whomever is hired: The NFC North is a beast, with the other three teams making the playoffs this season.
Nobody thought following Bill Belichick would be easy, especially with a bare-bones roster that demanded a rebuild. Robert Kraft anointed Jerod Mayo before Belichick was even gone, but on Sunday, Mayo was fired shortly after the season ended with just four wins. Two things immediately spring to mind. The roster still needs a lot of work (almost every part of the squad is subpar, but especially when it comes to offensive playmakers and the offensive line), although whoever is next at least knows he has a quarterback in Drake Maye. And the fact that Mike Vrabel is available likely played some part in this decision and how quickly it was made. Vrabel was a beloved Patriots player and a successful head coach in Tennessee, going to the playoffs three times in six seasons despite never having a superstar quarterback. He has already interviewed with the New York Jets, but keep an eye on him now that the Patriots gig is open. He would seem to be a perfect match for a team that badly needs discipline and accountability after a season that went awry.
The disappointment surrounding the last two seasons for the Jets is profound, but there are a few things candidates will really like about this job. Their names are Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, among other young talents. But the new coach -- and the new general manager -- will have to make the enormous and fraught decision about whether to retain Aaron Rodgers or let him go. If Rodgers goes, there is no starting quarterback on the roster, and one must be found. Cap space should not be an issue, and the Jets currently have eight draft picks, which should be high in each round. The Jets have missed the playoffs for 14 straight seasons, a league-leading mark of futility that has created a weird combination of desperation and cynicism (same old Jets) among its ardent fan base. A new coach will have to battle a culture that has allowed such futility, but if he succeeds, he has a chance to be a hero.
The firing of Doug Pederson seemed inevitable for at least half the season, but owner Shad Khan's decision to retain general manager Trent Baalke could throw a wrench into the Jaguars' pursuit of top coaching candidates. The team has alluring talent (before the season, Khan called it the best team the organization had ever put together), sparkling new facilities, an owner willing to spend to succeed and a presence in the very winnable AFC South. All of that would make the job attractive, perhaps especially to an offensive-minded coach who would like to work with quarterback Trevor Lawrence and star-in-the-making receiver Brian Thomas. But coaches with options might not choose a situation in which the general manager is inherited, unless there is a preexisting relationship, because it is obvious the GM has the ear of the owner. The new coach will report directly to Khan, not to Baalke, but arranged marriages in which the GM and coach are on different timelines can be difficult. With so many other openings, it will be fascinating to see who the Jaguars can attract with these conditions.
The Saints offer something most coaches crave: an embrace of stability. Few general managers stay with one team as long as Mickey Loomis has been with the Saints, and although Dennis Allen did not make it through his third season as the head coach, he had previously spent seven seasons in New Orleans as defensive coordinator. The Saints face a salary-cap quagmire born of years of kicking the can down the road, and that means the new coach might not be able to make significant roster changes right away. Derek Carr is there as the quarterback, so the new coach should probably make sure he can work with him, presuming Carr returns. The biggest plus for this job is that the NFC South is winnable. There is no dominant team or dominant quarterback, so a run to the postseason is entirely within reach, with the right hire and a few more wins.
One day after having Antonio Pierce meet with the media to do the season post-mortem, having told him nothing about his future, owner Mark Davis fired him, which tells you plenty about just how far this organization has to go to be considered competently run. Pierce won four games in his lone full season as coach, but the team played hard for him all the way to the end. Tom Brady, who became a minority owner of the Raiders a few months ago, is likely to have a strong voice in finding the next head coach. That likely means former Titans coach Mike Vrabel, who has become the darling of this coaching carousel, will be pursued. Whoever gets the job inherits a roster in need of a lot of work -- and a general manager in Tom Telesco, already in place -- most especially at quarterback. The Raiders have a long way to go and the climb in the AFC West is made more difficult by the caliber of division opponents, all three of whom are in the playoffs.
