You have lineup questions, we have lineup answers -- at least we hope so. Start 'Em, Sit 'Em is here to help fantasy managers make difficult roster decisions. And you know what is a good move? Starting Puka Nacua. But that's too obvious, so you won't see such simple analysis here. Instead, we're exploring more debatable situations. And if you can't find a player you are looking for, please check out the latest NFL Fantasy lineup rankings.
NOTE: Unless otherwise indicated, all stats come from NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats or NFL Research.
Start 'Em
Just four games into his NFL career, Judkins is already looking like a must-start fantasy option. He has averaged 95.3 rushing yards and 17.3 fantasy points per game in the last three weeks. That doesn't include a 56-yard touchdown from this past Sunday that was called back due to a penalty. Since Week 3, the rookie leads the NFL in carries while ranking second in rushing yards, fourth in explosive runs, third in red-zone carries and fourth in goal-line carries. That usage makes him an every-week start. It is even more impressive considering he faced the Packers, Lions and Vikings during that stretch. He has looked matchup proof. Judkins might be the first real league-winner of the year.
The current kings of New York are Jalen Brunson, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and ... Cam Skattebo? He has captivated Giants fans -- and general football enthusiasts across the country -- with his rambunctious play style. He has also been very effective for those who took a shot on him in fantasy. In the last four weeks, the rookie has averaged 16.4 fantasy PPG with at least 13 in each contest. During that span, he is sixth in red-zone carries and fourth in goal-line carries. Those are encouraging figures for this week, as Philadelphia has allowed a TD to an RB in three straight games. Skattebo's heavy involvement in the passing game means he is a safe bet for weekly volume, regardless of the game script. The Eagles have a tough defense, but they have allowed explosive runs at an above-average rate and have struggled against pass-catching backs. One thing I'm certain of: Your Thursday night will be much more entertaining if you start Skattebo.
As much as the fantasy community wants to make second-round rookie RJ Harvey a thing, this backfield continues to belong to Dobbins. The veteran leads Broncos backs in snap share (51.4%), carries (77) and goal-line carries (three). He leads the league in explosive runs (14 of 10-plus yards). Dobbins does not see much usage in the passing game, which limits the upside, but he has proven to be a very safe fantasy option, scoring 11-plus in every game and 14.8 or more in four of five. Dobbins has run for 100-plus yards or a touchdown in every game this season. This could be a big outing, as the Jets have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to RBs. The game script should be on Dobbins' side, as well.
Last Sunday, when I started figuring out who I would write about this week, I thought Croskey-Merritt could be a sneaky play. Then he went out on Sunday night and had the "Bill" breakout game, piling up 150 scrimmage yards, two touchdowns and 27 fantasy points. He leads all qualified running backs (min. 25 carries) with averages of 6.6 yards per carry and 4.7 yards after contact per carry, while ranking second with a 21 percent explosive run rate. On Monday night, he faces the Bears, who have given up a league-high 6.1 YPC and a 17 percent explosive run rate. Chicago has allowed yards after contact at the second-highest rate this season. This is a prime matchup for Bill to keep this breakout going.
New England has one fewer established backfield piece in the wake of Antonio Gibson's torn ACL. Stevenson has been the top option here, although the time share has been more balanced than it might seem. Stevenson has 38 carries to Henderson's 32, while Henderson leads the backfield in targets. The issue has been more about the Patriots rotating in three running backs, but that could change with Gibson's season-ending injury. There is enough volume here for two backs to be in play as flex options -- especially when game script is on their side. And that could be the case this week, with the Pats visiting the Saints, who have struggled against RBs in the ground attack and the passing game.
On Sunday, we saw Dowdle run for 206 yards and add another 28 as a receiver. It was the most rushing yards by a Panther since DeAngelo Williams in 2012 and the fifth-most of all NFL players in the last five seasons. This is a fantastic matchup, as the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most fantasy PPG and 12th-most rushing yards to RBs. They have yielded explosive runs at the fourth-highest rate while giving up the most receiving yards to backs. If Chuba Hubbard (strained calf) is back in action, it could put a significant dent in Dowdle's production, but the veteran's return is far from guaranteed at publishing. Monitor for updates this week regarding Hubbard's status and how Carolina plans to deploy its RBs. For Dowdle, a matchup against Dallas is off the charts on the revenge-game meter.
Sit 'Em
WARNING: I only feel this way about Henry if Lamar Jackson (hamstring) remains sidelined for Week 6.
With Jackson out last week, Henry averaged just 2.2 yards per carry, his second-worst rate in any game with Baltimore. He had -4 yards before contact, his third-worst figure as a Raven. The last two weeks are his only games since the beginning of last season without a missed tackle forced. Lastly, he had the fourth-lowest rate of light boxes in any game as a Raven, with two of the other three coming earlier this season. Without Jackson, teams are able to load up more up front, especially given the injuries Baltimore is dealing with on the offensive line. Asking Henry to carry an offense missing this many pieces may be too much for the 31-year-old back. Plus, he is not utilized much in the passing game, so if Baltimore falls behind, you have to worry about him being game scripted out. That seems like a realistic possibility against the Rams. Plus, Los Angeles allows the fifth-fewest yards before contact and has yet to allow a single rushing TD to an RB. In total, the Rams have allowed the third-fewest fantasy PPG to RBs. Henry is far from a must-sit, but if you have an option to get away from him, I'd take it.
Kamara averaged 9.1 fantasy PPG over the last three weeks and did not finish as a top-25 fantasy RB in any of them. The floor is no longer sturdy, and the ceiling has lowered. He currently ranks below league average in yards per carry and explosive-run rate, as well as yards before and after contact per carry. He's routinely getting hit behind the line of scrimmage and stuffed at an above-average rate. Perhaps these are the first signs of decline for the 30-year-old, or maybe he is just a victim of this offense. Either way, he hasn't been producing on the fantasy front. Now, he faces the Patriots, who have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to RBs. (Only the Browns have allowed a lower yards-per-carry figure to RBs.) New England just shut down Bills star James Cook. I would look to get away from Kamara, if possible.
Following Pittsburgh's Week 5 bye, it looks like Warren will return to the lineup after missing Week 4 with a knee injury. Unfortunately, this is a very difficult matchup, as Cleveland boasts the best run defense in the league. The Browns have faced tough competition in Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Jordan Mason and Chase Brown, holding them all in check. Only Jahmyr Gibbs enjoyed a nice fantasy day against them. The Browns have given up just three runs of 10-plus yards. In total, they've yielded the second-fewest rushing yards, fourth-fewest receiving yards and second-fewest fantasy PPG to RBs. Warren is more of a safe-floor option, but that gets lowered in a matchup like this. Plus, with Kenneth Gainwell playing so well last game, I wonder if he will eat into Warren's volume.
Brown reached double digits in each of the past few weeks, scoring 10.1 and 11.8 fantasy points. Sadly, we might have to consider those ceiling games in the RB's current environment. What a brutal state of affairs the Bengals' offense has become. They have averaged 0.3 yards before contact, the second-worst figure in the NFL. Now, Brown has to face a tough Packers defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest yards before contact per carry to RBs. In total, Green Bay has yielded the second-fewest rushing yards per game and eighth-fewest fantasy PPG to backs. Given how low the upside is, I would avoid this one.
Pacheco leads Kansas City backs in snaps, but he's still splitting carries with Kareem Hunt and targets with Brashard Smith. And Hunt is seeing the valuable goal-line touches. Patrick Mahomes has led the Chiefs in rushing yards in three of their five games, while Xavier Worthy did so in one of the other two. Kansas City's running backs have been largely unreliable for fantasy purposes. If I were to start any of them, it would be Hunt, and I'd hope for a touchdown. Pacheco has looked better, but until he gets more consistent usage, he cannot be trusted.
