Everyone is 0-0 again. You can officially throw last year's records out.
Whenever people berate me for my rankings (which is a right I'll fight for them to have) this time of year, I tend to fall back on the idea that last year is really last year, and it no longer matters.
That is, of course, only partly true. The top of the rankings actually look remarkably similar to our post-Super Bowl edition, so there's clearly some natural carryover. If we're being honest with ourselves, of the dozens of offseason additions we're spending so much time parsing these days, only a few might pay real dividends. Some of the losses we're lamenting will only hurt so much.
But there is a reality about turning the calendar to March, and that's pretty evident below in the middle tier, which has been shaken up from six weeks ago. Figuring out where to place teams such as the Vikings, Bengals, Bears, 49ers, Seahawks, Texans and Chargers is tricky right now. They fit into a few different categories of uncertainty: Either they overachieved or underachieved last season -- or, in some cases, they look vastly different than they did at season's end. There are also teams without starting quarterbacks, which are even harder to slot properly, absent some kind of supposition as to what they'll do at the position.
The remnants of free agency are still finding homes, and the whole draft process remains in front of us, meaning there's plenty of time for the chairs to shift more. So please keep that in mind when you're crafting that hate mail. I can't wait until it arrives.
NOTE: Up/down arrows reflect movement from the post-Super Bowl LIX Power Rankings, posted on Feb. 11.
Life's good in Philly, where the Eagles have taken some hits this offseason -- as expected -- but no one seems all that concerned. One reason for that: General manager Howie Roseman has drafted so well and seems to have planned out, years in advance, how the big picture should and will look. The Eagles could allow Milton Williams and Josh Sweat to leave via free agency because they've drafted Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis and Moro Ojomo inside and Nolan Smith Jr. and Jalyx Hunt on the edges. They can trade C.J. Gardner-Johnson (saving money and snagging a lottery ticket in Kenyon Green) because they drafted Sydney Brown. Green and mid-round picks Tyler Steen and Trevor Keegan can all compete at right guard to replace the departed Mekhi Becton. See a pattern here? And it all puts the Eagles in line to get more compensatory picks, which could keep the gravy train running for a few more years. That's how you build a team, folks.
The Chiefs wasted no time addressing their perceived biggest need at left tackle, signing ex-49er Jaylon Moore, although it's fair to ask if Moore is indeed the answer there, given that he's played a little less than a full season of snaps (827) over four years in the NFL. The good news is that most of those snaps were at left tackle, and he played well down the stretch for San Francisco in place of the injured Trent Williams, which helps the projection. Of course, the Chiefs also potentially weakened another position by trading away All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, leaving Kingsley Suamataia in line to be his presumptive replacement. And wasn't it just a year ago that Suamataia, a second-round pick in 2024, was going to be the left tackle? I laid all this out merely to demonstrate the point that we won't know if the Chiefs have solved their OL issues until, say, Week 3, which was when Suamataia was first benched last season. But they're the Chiefs, and they tend to solve problems better than almost every other team, which is why they get the benefit of the doubt here.
The Ravens were already an offseason winner for me when they retained left tackle Ronnie Stanley. I'm not quite as enamored with Stanley as others are, but there's no doubting his value to this team -- and the replacement options weren't great. The DeAndre Hopkins signing was a nice little surprise, even if the 32-year-old is going to have some quiet games these days. Even the Cooper Rush signing was a smart addition, giving the team one of the stronger backups in the NFL and another layer of insurance after Lamar Jackson. Most of the band is back together, and the Ravens should be right up there among the elites in the league. It was a bit curious that they didn't tender Ar'Darius Washington at the second-round level. He played a pretty big role for them at safety last season, and the right-of-first-refusal tender at least opens the possibility of another team giving him an offer sheet. We'll see.
The Bills were off to a smart start to the offseason, re-signing core players during a down year for free-agent talent. Even so, Josh Allen's new contract offered enough additional immediate flexibility to spend a little more, and they appeared to boost the D-line with Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi. But there's a big catch. Bosa isn't the rusher he once was, and his health is a concern. And perhaps more pressing, both Hoecht and Ogunjobi are facing six-game suspensions for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. Even for a team that has made the postseason six straight years, that leaves Buffalo awfully thin early in the season. I thought at one point that the Bills had more draft flexibility, but now I wonder if they don't have to go defensive line in Round 1. Even if they add another (likely inexpensive) veteran or two, there's only so much they can ask from the current top three inside (Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones and DeWayne Carter). There's suddenly added pressure on GM Brandon Beane to nail the draft a year after they traded down twice before making a pick (passing on Xavier Worthy in the process).
Everyone knows how injury-depleted the defense was late last year, so it's no shock that the Lions' first few volleys this offseason have been aimed at adding and shoring up depth on that side of the ball. I expect that to be the main focus over the next few months, with a young pass rusher likely the next order of business in the draft. After that, they might want to add depth at receiver and on the offensive line. The reality is that the Lions have the core of their team in place; very few starting jobs are up for grabs. They'll be considered among the top contenders for the Super Bowl, and rightfully so. Losing both coordinators is a scary reality, considering how good Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn were while helping the team get to this point in the first place. Just look at the Eagles as a prime example of how coordinator turnover can impact a team. Philly had to replace both coordinators in 2023 and started 10-1 before finishing the season with a thud. Then the Eagles replaced both again in 2024 and won it all.
The Commanders likely were always going to be aggressive this offseason, but when Jayden Daniels started balling out last season and the team moved into the ranks of presumptive contenders, their focus apparently tightened. That's why you're seeing targeted, go-for-it trades for Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil. Those have been the two biggest moves so far, but the remainder of their additions (and there have been plenty) to this point have been on the defensive side of the ball, which still needs help, while the offense is pretty darned close. Most of these acquisitions on D were smaller upgrades at best, and don't forget that Washington also released Jonathan Allen. So we have to keep our expectations fair here, especially knowing the Commanders have used up a good amount of draft capital via trades, both for this year and next.
You can't say the Vikings have been passive, that's for sure. The defensive line was an issue, so they added defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. The O-line wasn't how they wanted it, so they dropped two starters and added Will Fries and Ryan Kelly. They also kept Byron Murphy Jr. and Aaron Jones -- paying up to do so -- and made a savvy trade with the 49ers for RB Jordan Mason. And, of course, there was the Big One: letting Sam Darnold walk. I wondered how the Vikings would approach the offseason after going 14-3, and as it turns out, they're being very aggressive. But for now, the aggression has stopped at quarterback, where most signs point to 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy taking over as the starter. Sure, there's risk in that approach, but it's always felt like their North Star, even with the Aaron Rodgers option available to them. This is a delicate situation, but so far, the Vikings haven't done anything to upset it, which is commendable.
Years of inactivity in March conditioned Packers fans to feel disappointment at this juncture of the calendar. So perhaps 2024's veritable free-agent frenzy -- Green Bay signed Josh Jacobs and Xavier McKinney -- reset expectation levels a bit too high. Some harbored dreams of trading for Trey Hendrickson or DK Metcalf, but neither of those moves materialized, with the actual additions of nickelback Nate Hobbs and guard Aaron Banks paling in comparison. Then again, those could end up being fairly important when we look back later. Cornerback still seems like a spot where the Packers could add, and they have the flexibility to do so. And it continues to feel likely they'll move on from Jaire Alexander at some point. But the thing about this team under GM Brian Gutekunst is that it has found ways to get the roster in good shape more often than not by training camp. I suspect these Packers will do the same by the time we get to July.
Getting Chris Godwin back was a coup, and Baker Mayfield could have an even better season in 2025 than he did in '24. Godwin, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are a good top three at receiver, and Bucky Irving emerged as a starting back by season's end. The defense should benefit from the pass-rush help brought by the addition of Haason Reddick. Yes, he's turning 31 in September and coming off his worst campaign in five years. But there were extenuating circumstances, including his holdout and the fact that the Jets' defense arguably started falling apart before he set foot on the field for them. The NFC South remains a division in flux, and the Bucs feel like the kings until proven otherwise. Are they championship contenders? I'm not quite there yet.
I'm on board with essentially swapping out Cooper Kupp for Davante Adams, even if Adams is six months older and has more NFL mileage. If you watched both, you know it looks like Adams has more juice at this stage, even if he's still good for a maddening drop every other game. Adams and Puka Nacua are also a more explosive duo; plus, what defensive coordinator wants to single-cover Adams? Adding Adams while ensuring Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay will be back together for another year keeps the Rams in the upper reaches here, and their footing will be further solidified if that young defense can continue making strides after some encouraging developments following last season's slow start.
Joe Burrow has his receivers back. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will be Bengals for the long haul, and this team has a more urgent feel to it. Cincinnati came close to winning it all once, fell back, and now appears to be making another push around its newly secured Big Three. The obvious follow-up question is what happens with Trey Hendrickson. I am not entirely convinced the Bengals earnestly want to trade him. The lack of any concrete progress on a deal -- along with news that Cincinnati has been in contact with his reps -- appears to back me up on that. How the Bengals plan to make this all cohere is still going to be fascinating to watch. With or without Hendrickson, this moderately talented defense needs improvement. The offensive line doesn't yet feel like a complete unit, either. I can't fault the go-for-it approach, but I'm curious to see the short- and long-term ramifications.
Evan Engram can be one of the pieces Sean Payton adds to his skill-position arsenal this offseason, but he can't be the only one. This is not a knock on Engram, who has been seriously busy as a pass-catching tight end over the years, ranking third at the position in targets (734) since he entered the NFL in 2017. But he's a short and intermediate receiver only at this stage of his career, and I don't think that quite fits the "joker" mold Payton was describing this offseason. Maybe that player will arrive in April. The Broncos made two other big moves in March, adding Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga to a defense that was already in the upper tier of the league. They are coming off injury-shortened seasons (as is Engram), but even with the risk, I love both defensive additions. The offseason is off to a nice start overall.
It was nice to see Mike Williams come back, and Jim Harbaugh has had a crush on Najee Harris since the running back was in high school, so that wasn't a shocking pairing. It also wasn't stunning that the Chargers moved on from Joey Bosa. But there have been a few elements of this Bolts offseason that I was surprised by. Letting Poona Ford cross town to join the Rams was a sneaky-big loss for a defense that might have overachieved last season. Kristian Fulton was also a big part of that unit, and now he's going to face the Chargers twice a season as a member of the Chiefs. To me, those were tough blows; they felt preventable, and I'm not sure the players they signed as replacements were upgrades. Check back with me later on the addition of Mekhi Becton. That has a chance to pan out, but his history is concerning and can't be overlooked. I don't know; it feels like the Chargers still have a lot of boxes to check off.
The trade of Laremy Tunsil to Washington was not something I anticipated, considering C.J. Stroud took 52 sacks last season. Right now, the plan would appear to be kicking Tytus Howard out to left tackle and playing Blake Fisher at right tackle. The Texans could also flip those two, and there's still the draft left with which to add a potential OT starter, though picking 25th makes the chore tougher. Houston could move up six or seven spots in Round 1 by potentially dealing its extra third-round pick, but then again, the Texans are a bit lean on draft picks overall. Big picture: Even taking into account the trades for Christian Kirk and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, this offseason has been a bit of a comedown after last year's spending spree, which seemingly poised the Texans to compete with the elite of the AFC. Are they still in that area code? I'm a bit leery, although I do believe Stroud rebounding in Year 3 keeps them well in contention.
What do we make of the Steelers? They swung a dramatic trade for DK Metcalf, which certainly changed the mojo around this team. But the follow-ups are obvious: Who will throw him the ball? And how do Metcalf and George Pickens coexist? Now we wait. Aaron Rodgers is an option, but that's not guaranteed to happen. If not Rodgers, then who? The Steelers arguably have a top-10 defense after adding some reinforcements in the secondary. But if Rodgers isn't brought into the fold, going into the draft with only Mason Rudolph and Skylar Thompson at quarterback feels like an awfully risky plan. What's the point of having two stud receivers if you don't pair them with a commensurately talented passer? As you can see, I am full of questions for now.
The Bears are offseason kings for three years running, but this year does feel a little different. Their additions have mostly been of the blue-collar variety, filling out the ranks on both lines of scrimmage. Did they maybe overspend on some? I think so. But what choice did the Bears have? Even coming off a 5-12 season that included 10 straight losses, their time to win is now, with Caleb Williams still playing on his affordable rookie deal. There's a reasonable line of thinking that goes something like this: Ben Johnson will make Williams better, which in turn will make an overburdened defense better, which logically should make the entire operation better. I tend to buy into that idea, even if we really have no idea how good Johnson is as a head coach. If he's as successful as he was as a coordinator, this thing might actually work.
There have been quite a few changes this offseason already, from the swap-outs at offensive coordinator (Ryan Grubb for Klint Kubiak), quarterback (Geno Smith for Sam Darnold) and receiver (DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for Cooper Kupp) to the major shuffling on the defensive front. Sometimes teams that barely miss out on the playoffs can be lulled into a we're really close mentality, running it back with a similar core, and that can be a dangerous way of thinking at this time of year. The Seahawks are very much taking the opposite approach, which carries its own risk, especially for head coach Mike Macdonald, who'll be expected to make all these new pieces work in harmony. The next orders of business include adding more help on the offensive line and some outside threats at receiver. The 'Hawks own five of the first 92 picks in the draft, so they'll be big players that weekend, but there are still some significant boxes to check off.
In just the first week of the new year, the 49ers have lost Jaylon Moore and Aaron Banks on the offensive line, Talanoa Hufanga and Charvarius Ward in the secondary, Dre Greenlaw and Javon Hargrave in the front seven, offensive chess piece Deebo Samuel and others. All while adding mostly reserves on lower-end contracts. San Francisco has four picks in the top 100, including the 11th overall selection, plus two fourth-rounders, but that draft currency is only going to bear so much fruit in Year 1. It's arguable that no other NFC West team has dramatically upgraded its roster so far, but it's beyond a stretch to suggest that the Niners have gained ground on the rest of the division after a last-place finish. A star-focused nucleus and Kyle Shanahan's wizardry remain in place to fall back on, but the lack of talent/depth at certain positions is a bit scary for now.
The Cardinals have been the quietest team in the NFC West -- by far -- at least in terms of buzz. The Seahawks have undergone a massive overhaul, the 49ers have lost a ton of big contributors, and the Rams have made major changes at receiver. Arizona’s moves have paled in comparison, volume-wise. But there's hope that Josh Sweat can become a top pass rusher and a strong complement to Darius Robinson, Baron Browning and new nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson. It's an interesting little group the Cards are putting together there. Arizona has intrigued me the past few seasons, but with this incarnation, I’m not quite there yet. And I'd have no problem with this team going offensive line in Round 1 and leaning even more into the run game next season.
After losing starters on both sides of the ball, the Dolphins have tried to patch those holes in the secondary and on the offensive line. But more than anything, it has been a steady drip of end-of-roster additions. (For example: New RB Alexander Mattison will presumably play a bit role in short-yardage situations, at best.) They're preaching patience on South Beach, but it's hard not to be more than a little concerned with the fact that a few starting jobs are up for grabs now, and we still don’t know if LT Terron Armstead will be back for another year. OL additions James Daniels and Larry Borom could both end up starting, and Miami still likely needs one more interior blocker. Both the O-line and secondary have me worried. I'm gonna try that patience thing, but the current state of this roster spawns anxiety.
They've added pieces to each level of the defense with the signings of Leonard Floyd, Divine Deablo and Mike Hughes, plus a few other additions, but the defensive picture remains incomplete. Nothing that has happened so far leads me to believe Atlanta won't use the 15th pick on a defensive prospect, and pass rusher still feels like the most likely target. Cornerback and defensive tackle would be the next two defensive spots that need prioritizing. Losing Grady Jarrett certainly hurts, and Drew Dalman also landing in Chicago has opened up a spot at center, unless the Falcons believe they can fill it from within with Ryan Neuzil. I won't judge the Falcons until they're done putting the pieces together, but this doesn't feel like a more stable situation overall for new starting QB Michael Penix Jr. just yet.
The recent drama following DeMarcus Lawrence's exit may not have a lasting imprint on the Cowboys, but it does paint an interesting picture of the current leadership. This is Dak Prescott's team, but it's also CeeDee Lamb's and Micah Parsons' team, too. Parsons technically hangs in the balance prior to his extension, but it feels as if the Cowboys will lock him up long-term at some point soon. That naturally will elevate his voice even more in the locker room, which is transitioning from Mike McCarthy to Brian Schottenheimer. Other respected voices have departed this offseason, with Zack Martin and Jourdan Lewis at the top of the list. The Cowboys have taken a slightly more aggressive approach to free agency, and they've traded for a pair of former first-rounders (LB Kenneth Murray Jr. and CB Kaiir Elam) who might be able to flourish in a new situation. But I'll be really curious how Dallas’ current leadership guides this team into a new era.
I have thought way too much about the QB situation brewing here. If you'd have told me a month ago that the Colts would sign Daniel Jones, I wouldn't have automatically assumed the move was made to push Anthony Richardson. After all, Jones was not claimed by anyone after being cut last November and ended up on Minnesota's practice squad. I realize timing matters, and Jones' value is higher in a lean QB market, but signing him to a one-year, $14 million deal puts the 27-year-old on a salary island. He's making around $5 million more this year than recent first-round QBs on their first contracts and around $5 million less than the lowest presumed QB starter, Justin Fields. That clearly shows the Colts 1) are concerned about Richardson's development for this season and 2) believe Jones can win the job from him. GM Chris Ballard wasn’t just blowing smoke at the combine when he said the team would have a QB competition. Addressing the secondary was a must, so the additions of Charvarius Ward and Camryn Bynum were big, but the QB situation and how it unfolds over the next nine months definitely trumps everything else. Stop me if you've heard this before, but we're entering a critical season in Indy.
Some of the Panthers' defensive additions are still wait-and-see moves for me, but there's no question they've added competition and depth to a unit that had skid marks on it by the end of last season. I still wouldn't be against GM Dan Morgan using six or seven of his nine draft picks on that side of the ball. That's not to say that QB Bryce Young couldn't use more help, especially at receiver and along the offensive line, but don’t overlook the sneaky-good signing of running back Rico Dowdle. Chuba Hubbard earned a nice extension during his breakout season last year and will top the RB depth chart again in 2025. But 2024 second-rounder Jonathon Brooks is now recovering from a second ACL tear (to the same knee) in as many years, so Morgan understandably secured Dowdle on a one-year deal. The 2024 Panthers were 31st in time of possession, and that certainly didn't help the defense.
The good news is that the Patriots burned through some cash to address all three levels of the defense. Harold Landry and Milton Williams boost the defensive line, Robert Spillane is an upgrade at linebacker and Carlton Davis profiles as a great No. 2 cornerback opposite Christian Gonzalez. Ready for the bad news? The offense remains a major work in progress. New England doesn't have anything resembling a go-to receiver, and the offensive line is incomplete, even after the signing of Morgan Moses. The Pats’ release of David Andrews wasn’t stunning, as it seems like the veteran center could be heading for retirement, but it still left a void. Left tackle is a question. Cole Strange is a question mark. Even the RB and TE groups could use some sprucing up. The worst part is that there are few obvious solutions just floating out there. I'll be curious how New England attempts to help Drake Maye over the next several months.
I thought the trade for Geno Smith made a lot of sense, and it didn't cost the Raiders a whole lot. Smith was pretty darned good the past two seasons with offensive coordinators who are no longer NFL offensive coordinators. The Raiders badly needed the upgrade, and yet it doesn't preclude them from drafting Smith's eventual replacement if they like a QB from the prospect crop. Defensively, though, things are less cheery for me. Pete Carroll said at the NFL Scouting Combine he'd love to see the bulk of his in-house free agents return, and then Tre'von Moehrig, Nate Hobbs and Robert Spillane all signed elsewhere. Maybe Carroll was paying lip service to those guys, but this was a middle-of-the-pack defense at best last season; even with Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins coming back healthy, there are still a lot of holes in the desert.
The Justin Fields signing won't cure all their ills, and it hasn't whipped Jets fans into a frenzy (good or bad), but I think it made sense, given what was out there. He'll be reunited with old Ohio State friends Garrett Wilson (whom the Jets have to get going), Josh Myers and Jeremy Ruckert. If Fields has a resurgent season and finally comes into his own in Year 5, then the Jets got him on a very team-friendly deal. If he flames out, then they can cut him next offseason and not incur too big a salary-cap hit. Plus, as colleague Chad Reuter sagely pointed out, this doesn't prevent New York from taking Shedeur Sanders or Jaxson Dart or some other quarterback in this year's draft to augment the position. It's not as if Fields isn't used to having someone push him; that's basically been the case for him in almost every pro season thus far. The Jets need more help on the offensive line and at receiver, but there's actual hope that the franchise might be handling things well so far in the Aaron Glenn-Darren Mougey regime.
The Saints took a smart approach to shaving salary-cap space with some restructures and re-signings, and they still were able to find enough wiggle room to steal Justin Reid from the Chiefs. I'm normally not a big proponent of throwing big money at other teams' safeties, but if you saw New Orleans’ tackling last season, you know that Reid could end up being a critical safety valve. The defense should be in decent shape next season for Kellen Moore, but the new head coach probably needs at least two more offensive pieces to feel good about that side of the ball after the team predictably turned back to Derek Carr for 2025. On the one hand, this team started out like gangbusters last season, was 2-6 in one-score games and went 0-7 in games not started by Carr. On the other, the Saints’ five wins all came against teams that finished below .500 and they were outscored by 122 points in the final 15 games. I don't know how quick a fix this truly is.
Browns fans rejoiced when Myles Garrett and the team agreed on a contract extension, keeping Cleveland’s best player under lock and key. That's reason to celebrate, and the Browns have become veritable masters of clearing up cap space when all hope looks lost. Deshaun Watson’s disastrous contract has honed their escape-artist abilities to a level no one could have foreseen. That's all fine and good, but there are still the matters of figuring out a reasonable plan at quarterback, sorting out the offensive line and rebuilding the remainder of the defense around Garrett. It's a good-enough defense for now, assuming the offense becomes, you know, functional. Cleveland is still a ways away from that place now, but finding the right QB stopgap can solve some of those issues.
The new regime of GM James Gladstone and head coach Liam Coen has been busy incrementally upgrading problem areas from last season, including the secondary, offensive line and receiving corps. There weren't many moves you'd categorize as franchise-altering, but the sum of the parts feels like an upgrade in personnel. Trading Christian Kirk inside the division was an interesting move, but the Jaguars aren't in a place near the top of the conference where they have to stress about former players coming back to bite them. The focus from here until training camp feels like it should be on bolstering a bad defense. I'm curious how many more moves Jacksonville can make between now and then to help that side of the ball.
The Giants have had an interesting offseason, and we haven't even really gotten to the good stuff yet. They've made some pretty notable additions on defense with CB Paulson Adebo, S Jevon Holland and DE Chauncey Golston. The offensive signings have been mostly of the depth variety. The most exciting buzz has been at quarterback, with Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers most closely connected. This is a team acting like its only issue was the lack of a functioning QB last season. That scares me a little. The G-Men are poised to make a big imprint on the draft, and there's still time to get this thing right. But what if their veteran QB options dry up? I'll be really interested to see how GM Joe Schoen plays the next six weeks.
They've upgraded at two spots on the offensive line with the additions of Dan Moore Jr. and Kevin Zeitler, and JC Latham could really benefit from a move back to right tackle (the position he should have been playing all along). That's a solid start to free agency, even if the Titans have stopped short of fireworks. Everything seems to be pointing to drafting a quarterback at No. 1 right now; that can change over the next month, but that's the direction I'm leaning at the moment. If they take Cam Ward first, the Titans will be passing on two potentially elite non-QBs in Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter, as well as a trade-down windfall. But then again, Ward also could do for the Titans what Bo Nix did for the Broncos last season. I'll be interested to see which direction Tennessee goes in, but Ward feels like a stronger possibility than he did a few weeks ago.