NFL Power Rankings: Packers rise entering Week 1; Commanders, Cowboys slip

The Eagles were playing at an exceptional level by season’s end, truly great by even championship-winning standards. Whether they can reach that level again is fair to question. They’re arguably worse on both lines of scrimmage than a year ago, with the defense especially needing to reload, and Saquon Barkley’s workload will have to be managed a bit more after he handled nearly 500 touches in 20 games, counting the playoffs. But there’s a lot to like about the squad and no obvious reason to drop it from the top spot prior to the season kickoff against the Cowboys. Philly remains the king of the NFC East for now, even with strong challengers in the Commanders. We’ll see if the Eagles have another title run in them, but they have to be the division favorite now, at the least.

The Steelers have Aaron Rodgers, and the Bengals might be due for a bounce-back season, but the Ravens remain my clear favorites in the AFC North right now. Lamar Jackson has played at an MVP level in each of the past two seasons, and the Ravens weren’t as gutted -- personnel-wise or in the coaching staff -- as they often are in the offseason. Continuity will help Baltimore in its quest for a third straight division title, with the biggest changes arguably coming on special teams. The Ravens have 10 offensive starters back, as well as most of their defense, which performed at a higher level by the end of the 2024 season and still might have some room for improvement. If they get to the bye (Week 7) in decent shape, it should be another strong year.

The Bills have won five straight division titles and have pole position for a sixth, with the other three AFC East teams still lagging. Josh Allen is coming off an MVP season and should be piloting a prolific offense again. The Bills face some tough games, but they’re mostly in Orchard Park, in the final season before they open a new stadium. They’d love nothing more than to send their current home off with a few playoff wins, followed by a trip to the Super Bowl. What likely will determine if that is possible -- after years of postseason disappointment -- is how the defense fares. Its reconstruction has nearly been as busy as the stadium-building efforts, addressing all three levels. Even incremental improvement could be the difference.

Rashee Rice’s status was up in the air last time I power ranked. Now that he's been suspended for the first six games, I’m pushing the Chiefs down a notch. Having the wideout miss games against the Chargers, Eagles, Ravens and Lions will hurt Kansas City. I still think the defense remains one of the better units in the NFL, and Patrick Mahomes remains on the roster. For all the talk about his downslide, I’ll let someone else bet against Mahomes. He is about to turn 30 years old, and the Chiefs have finished atop the AFC West in all seven of his seasons as a starter. In fact, Andy Reid is going for his 10th straight division title. There will be more threats within the division, and there’s no question the Chiefs benefitted from some close shaves last season, but I can’t in good conscience write them off as title contenders.

I remembered watching the Lions’ playoff meltdown against the Commanders and wondering if they had missed their best chance to win a Super Bowl. Not that a Lombardi suddenly isn’t possible, but it feels like a farther reach. Detroit is breaking in two new coordinators and faces a monstrous schedule, including six games against dangerous NFC North teams. The already-tough Packers just added Micah Parsons, the Bears might be a real threat, and I don't think the Vikings are going anywhere. Dan Campbell and Jared Goff will push the pedal all season, and the return of Aidan Hutchinson bodes well for the defense’s hopes. There’s a reason I still have the Lions listed first among North teams. But the other three are quickly creeping up.

I was on Wisconsin radio this summer, and when they asked me about the Packers’ roster, I told them I liked it, that there was a good distribution of talent, but that it lacked true blue-chip players. Trading for Micah Parsons on the eve of the season is a pretty good way to shut me up. And after the team just drafted a first-round receiver in Green Bay? These are some very uncharacteristic moves for this franchise that have the feel of a confident front office. You make moves such as these when the picture is nearing completion -- and when the competition is thickest, as it is in the NFC North. And boy, that puts the target squarely on Jordan Love. But it’s hard not to love what Green Bay has suddenly assembled if a few things come together. Losing Kenny Clark is tough, but Parsons is a singular defender who will elevate the team, possibly even in Reggie White-like fashion, as long as his back injury doesn't become a problem.

If you wish to think of the Buccaneers as the best team of the second tier, be my guest. That’s sort of how I’m approaching them this year, but I really believe they have a high ceiling if they receive some good luck on the injury front and can make incremental improvements defensively -- more takeaways, a little tighter against the pass, better in first halves. That’s not a high bar to cross. No, the offense is not above examination, and first-time play-caller Josh Grizzard will be Baker Mayfield’s third offensive coordinator in three years with the Bucs. Still, the firepower is there, with many options to showcase. Seven of Tampa's first 11 games are on the road, too, but I am buying Bucs stock and putting it in the safety-deposit box. If they can weather the early storm and hold off the Falcons, these Buccaneers feel like Super Bowl dark horses to me. 

I am in no way punting on the ascending Commanders, whose long-term future appears almost as bright as any franchise’s. Don’t forget, I was higher on them than some other folks were at this time last year, way before it was cool. But I also think taking the proverbial next step won’t be as natural or smooth a progression as everyone wants it to be. The beautiful thing about Jayden Daniels is that he’s already capable of covering up his team’s missteps with his own play, and that alone will win Washington some games. The additions of Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel can’t hurt. Rookies such as Josh Conerly Jr., Trey Amos and Jacory Croskey-Merritt are wild cards whose potential value can’t be ignored. Yet I’m still a bit leery about the true ceiling of the defense, unless the pass rush and secondary make big strides.

There’s no question the Broncos are becoming a dangerous team, acquiring even more defensive talent for a unit that was strong a year ago and adding pieces to an incomplete offensive picture. If Bo Nix can build on what he did last season, Denver can challenge Kansas City and others for the division title. The Broncos nearly knocked off the Chiefs at Arrowhead last season and blew them out in a Week 18 game when Andy Reid rested starters. The chore now is for the Broncos to be more consistently successful against the league’s better teams. They were swept by the Chargers, blown out at Baltimore and only won two games against teams that finished over .500. Sean Payton has done a great job retooling the roster, and if his skill-position additions add punch, don’t sleep on this squad.

Moving Cincinnati up two spots because the team finally worked out a deal with Trey Hendrickson might seem like an overreaction. But when you look at the total picture -- having the Big Three on offense locked in for the foreseeable future and keeping Hendrickson around for this season -- it’s a net win for the Bengals. They’ve had a winning record in four straight seasons, but everyone knows things have gotten off track in the past two. There’s no way to predict good health for Joe Burrow and Co., but if they can somehow get that for most (or all) of the season, it boils down to what this much-maligned defense can do. Al Golden arrived with a ton of pressure to revive the defense, receiving some major draft-pick help, but will it be enough to push the Ravens and stave off the Steelers?

While Sean McVay has said he’s expecting Matthew Stafford to be ready for Week 1, my concern about the QB1's season-long health is one reason the Rams are sliding a few spots for me. They finally seemed to have some continuity this offseason, with no coordinators leaving, along with the exciting addition of Davante Adams. But as Stafford health questions linger into the season, as well as those of left tackle Alaric Jackson, I feel like there’s a glass ceiling on what this team can achieve long term. Defensively, the pass rush can anchor the group, and the Rams appeared to address the run-stopping issues up the middle, but the secondary has some questions with a pair of older corners. The NFC West is going to be a tightly packed division. I don’t think the Rams can have another 3-6 or 1-4 start -- like they’ve had the past two seasons -- and still make the playoffs.

The Vikings have a lot going for them, including a terrific coaching staff and a loaded lineup headlined by a truly elite receiver in Justin Jefferson. You could argue there really isn’t a glaring hole on the roster, but that also comes with the assumption that J.J. McCarthy is ready to take ownership of the offense. The evidence is thin -- we simply don’t know what he’s capable of -- but the infrastructure is strong and McCarthy brings intriguing qualities to the table. Yet there are potential cracks, too, starting with a wicked schedule and some depth issues thanks to injuries (and players with injury histories). Jordan Addison’s three-game suspension hurts, too. If the Vikings start slowly, the division looks too packed to assume Minnesota can rally. The team’s schedule doesn’t allow for much wiggle room.

In some respects, Houston flatlined last season, going from the darling team everyone loved to just another also-ran contender in the loaded AFC. What will it take to break out in 2025? Doing so likely will mean the offensive line has improved, the receivers are more reliable/explosive and the defense has taken another step toward being one of the best units in the NFL. That’s not to say C.J. Stroud doesn’t have room for improvement, too; he seemed to plateau in 2024, as well. Having a better surrounding cast should help, and Stroud’s strong showing in the two playoff games made me feel better about his progression. I’m a tad leery of the Texans’ ceiling, but I do think they have a chance to move up this list.

Following up a disappointing finish to a good season, most of the Chargers’ notable additions are on offense. Yet the biggest preseason blow occurred on that side of the ball, with Rashawn Slater suffering a season-ending injury just days after signing his contract extension. The O-line remains a worry, and the Bolts are breaking in some different receivers and backs, so the offense could take some time to jell. Also, the Chargers’ defense took a few personnel hits this offseason and must show that last season was not an aberration. Jim Harbaugh has a good staff, a star QB and playmakers on both sides of the ball, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be tough sledding this season. The division is arguably tougher, and I am not sure the Chargers are a better team than they were a year ago. Maybe not worse, either, but there’s a cap to my optimism.

I think my third tier starts right about here. As much goodwill and trust as the 49ers built up for years, last season did hurt their reputation. I really thought the Week 10 win in Tampa would springboard them back into the playoffs, but the whole operation just fell apart, with injuries a big part of it. I’ve felt all summer that San Francisco is due for a positive regression-to-the-mean season, especially with a favorable schedule. But the Niners aren’t as talented or as deep as they were two years ago, and the receiver situation has me worried. Brandon Aiyuk starts the season on the PUP list, Demarcus Robinson is suspended three games and who knows what to expect from Jauan Jennings? It’s a lot, and I’ve had my doubts along the way, but San Francisco holds steady on the ranks for now.

Another team that seems to have one of the wider range of outcomes, even with Mike Tomlin’s excellent career consistency. Aaron Rodgers remains a mystery after sitting out the preseason, but the reality is that, even though he played at a respectable level down the stretch in 2024, Rodgers has been pretty average, or just above that, since 2022. Expecting better than that in a season where he’ll turn 42 is a bridge I’ll let you cross first, thank you very much. This might work in the AFC South, but it’s harder to imagine it in the North. Thankfully, Rodgers does have several new weapons and a capable offensive line. Plus, there’s a near-elite defense on the other side of the ball. But it will have been nine years, come January, since the Steelers have won a playoff game. They need to cross that bar before we can talk about anything more for them this season.

I’m more bullish on the Cardinals than others might be, mainly because I still believe in the potential of Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. and I think the defense has a chance to go from a middling or slightly below-average group to a top-12 type of unit. I think you can call their defensive front a strength, at least when Walter Nolen gets healthy. They’ve added layers of depth and talent up front. If the secondary holds up, this group could be vastly better overall. Murray remains an enigma in some ways, and Harrison’s rookie season wasn’t quite what we all hoped it would be, but I’ve seen this team’s incremental progress the past few years and expect the picture to sharpen this season. I think the playoffs are within reach, even in a tough division with all four teams nominally in contention, but finishing stronger is a must.

We should learn a lot about the Bears quickly, with two showcase divisional games to start the year. A 2-0 start in the NFC North would be a dream scenario. A split would be reasonable. But losing to both the Vikings (at home) and Lions (in Detroit) could sink the season before it really starts. Shortly after that, the Bears must go on the road seven times in a 10-game stretch, giving them little margin for error. There’s a lot of reason for optimism this season, and I saw a lot of good things last month in their joint practice against the Bills, especially defensively. Ben Johnson has brought energy and toughness, and Caleb Williams is in an infinitely better situation now than last season. But I’m still a tiny bit concerned for the moment. The Bears' left tackle situation and a lingering belief that there will be growing pains between Williams and Johnson keep me from raising them up higher than the middle of the pack.

All offseason, I’ve tried to figure out the identity of Seattle’s offense and had trouble pinning it down. The Seahawks changed coordinators, bringing in Klint Kubiak to establish a physical rushing identity to pair with play-action passing. That seems to be how they’re built and how Mike Macdonald wants to be offensively, which makes sense. But bringing in Sam Darnold and signing Cooper Kupp were slightly curious moves to me. Both can help make this offense better, but are they upgrades over their predecessors? Seattle also is apparently banking that its solid defense becomes closer to dominant. That could happen, with most of the starters back, but I don’t know that I see greatness on that side yet. This is a team I freely admit to not having a great feel for yet and could see it quickly go up or down from here at least five slots in either direction.

The Falcons are hard to gauge because of the unknown potential of Michael Penix Jr. Simply put, if he’s as prolific throwing the ball as he was in his final two college seasons, Atlanta could be a surprise contender this season. The NFC South has belonged to the Bucs the past several years, but the Falcons beat them twice last season and can make a big statement by upending them in Week 1. But if Penix struggles, it could be a surprisingly long season in Atlanta. I do worry about the Falcons abandoning the run game, which has been an issue for a while now. And though the team changed defensive coordinators and added a slew of pass rushers and DBs, there’s no guarantee it will all come together fast enough for Atlanta to make a big enough push this season.

The summer of discontent came to a head with the trade of Micah Parsons to Green Bay. The shock hasn’t left yet, even if the trio of Donovan Ezeiruaku, Sam Williams and Dante Fowler Jr. might end up being pretty good. And look, I’m sure Kenny Clark will help Dallas. But it’s also easy to sympathize with fans who are left to wonder what the product is going to look like this season and whether the Cowboys truly feel like they can compete. One day down the road, we might look at the trade a little differently -- more in the Cowboys' favor -- if they can hit home runs with those first-round draft picks. But here at the Power Rankings, it’s all about the here and now. Dallas opens with the Eagles, has to host Parsons and the Packers in Week 4, and the November and December schedule is downright wicked. Can Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens throw their way out of misery this season? Brian Schottenheimer has his Year 1 work cut out for him.

My summer-months optimism has cooled a tiny bit amid some signals that this remains an incomplete situation. I’m still pushing my chips in on Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, New England's two best assets right now, and the schedule looks quite favorable in a few respects. Yet the roster churn has continued into the preseason, carrying over from a busy summer of refurbishing. My read on the situation, after the Patriots let another veteran go in Jabrill Peppers, is that they’re still a few steps away from where Vrabel wants to be. He’s clearly not afraid to move on from players who might be able to play but are deemed poor fits in the system. There’s optimism, and I think the rookie class will help immensely, but I am hedging just a bit on predicting a full-on breakout in 2025.

The Jaguars are suddenly a must-watch team, with Travis Hunter joining Brian Thomas Jr. to form one of the more explosive young WR duos in the league. Hunter also plays defense, as you might have read. And while, yes, of course I want to see how Liam Coen handles what will be one of the league's most fascinating experiments in a while, that's not the only thing on Coen's to-do list. The first-year head coach was also brought in to salvage Trevor Lawrence and reshape this offense in his vision, getting out of it what Doug Pederson could not over the past few years. The schedule lays out nicely, and if the Jaguars' defense can do a better job of slowing down opponents' aerial games after finishing 32nd in pass defense in 2024, they might be sneaky wild-card candidates.  

I think I was a tad harsh at the beginning of August, ranking Miami 25th, so consider this a mild correction. Finishing ahead of the Patriots wouldn't be a shock, of course, and the Dolphins' passing game can still be a very capable power source. But there's just a lot of pressure on Mike McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill -- really, the whole offense. McDaniel boasts a pretty good record (28-23) in three years, but the operation has trended slightly in the negative direction dating back to the disappointing finish to the 2023 campaign, and Miami cast off some fairly big names this offseason. That means a roster that was built around star players suddenly has fewer such load-bearers holding the operation together. I think there will be weeks where the Dolphins look like contenders and others where they struggle to finish off games against ordinary competition. But between a favorable schedule and a healthy Tua, they have a decent chance of making me look silly.

The Raiders have only been in Vegas since 2020, and this is their fourth coaching staff since the move. Soon to be 74 years old, Pete Carroll also happens to be the league's oldest head coach, although few would know it from his energy level. That's going to be Carroll's meal ticket this season, I suspect, along with an offense that at least has the potential to become quite good. Geno Smith, Ashton Jeanty and others (perhaps rookie WR Dont'e Thornton) should make this a more threatening attack, and one that might be able to sustain and finish drives better. As for the defense, though, I'm hitting the brakes until I see what this unit is made of. Maxx Crosby is a beast, no doubt, but there are worrisome spots in multiple places on that side of the ball.

I drew some loose parallels between Cam Ward and Jayden Daniels in the previous edition of the Power Rankings, and I still believe Ward will be a beacon of light for this wayward franchise. He's not the runner Daniels is and could have some games where he tries to do too much, but there is a solid infrastructure around him on offense, with rebuilt OL and WR rooms. Brian Callahan must show he can shape this attack well and guide the Titans back to respectability, and there are some possible landmines on the roster, including a clear lack of pass-rush power. On the whole, though, I am excited to see what Ward can deliver. He's seemingly entering the league with as little fanfare as a QB drafted No. 1 overall has received in recent years, but I suspect that will change as he gets going.

I'm starting to see the path back to redemption. Whether the Giants get to the end of that path this season or not, I don't know, and there's certainly major pressure on Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen to deliver wins after going 9-25 the past two seasons. This rookie class has a chance to be a good one right away, with Jaxson Dart's play able to swing it toward greatness if he becomes successful. Right now, it's Russell Wilson's shot, and the Giants face a pretty nasty schedule, but there's some real promise in a cohering offensive line (pending Andrew Thomas' health) and a defense that should be able to hang with most teams. I still don't know how the G-Men are going to finish over .500, yet I am preparing myself to be mildly surprised by their 2025 showing.

The chances of ending a four-season playoff drought right now fall on Daniel Jones, and I make no apologies for being a little skittish about those prospects. The rest of the roster isn't in terrible shape, mind you, but it's not strong enough for me to assume that the Colts can withstand average QB play (or worse) and find a way into the postseason mix. Perhaps Anthony Richardson still can have a say in what happens this season, the way Bryce Young did after being benched in Carolina a year ago, but forgive me if I am not banking on that happening. The Colts can run the ball, and employing a more aggressive defensive scheme is likely the best way to go with this unit, but I'm still seeing a team with major limitations until one of the quarterbacks proves he can be a difference-maker.

The Panthers seemingly couldn't quite make some potential home-run moves, missing out on Milton Williams and failing to trade for DK Metcalf. But they were still highly active this offseason, refurbishing the roster of a team that played markedly better football down the stretch last season, even while losing some close games. The pairing of Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan will be one to watch over the next few years, adding more help to an offense on the upswing. But how much can the defense improve after allowing the most points in NFL history in 2024? The answer will have to be a lot if Carolina is to contend in the South and end its seven-season absence from the playoffs. 

The Jets will be a fascinating experiment under new head coach Aaron Glenn. They'll be pounding the ball with a three-headed RB attack and the legs of Justin Fields, which at least is a vast departure from whatever the Jets were supposed to be with Aaron Rodgers. I also like that, regarding outside chatter and visible drama, things have been awfully quiet compared to recent years. The idea of building a team that imposes its physical will and bleeds clocks always sounds like a noble pursuit, but can it work? Success will certainly be predicated on the defense making more stops. This unit was pretty good on third downs and in the red zone in 2024, but beyond that, teams just ground the Jets down too often. If Glenn can reverse that trend significantly, New York might be a sneaky-tough opponent for some.

As lower-ranked teams go, the Browns are pretty darned interesting, starting with the thorny QB situation. Joe Flacco will take the wheel early, but I won't be shocked if both rookies behind him see the field at some point, even if it feels obvious Cleveland is more comfortable with Dillon Gabriel than Shedeur Sanders at this moment. Similar to the Saints below them, the Browns must come out of this season knowing what they have in those two QBs prior to next year's draft cycle, when they'll possess two first-round choices. The offense was so bad last season, it severely corrupted even a defense featuring elite talents like Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. That can't happen again if the Browns want to escape the AFC North basement.

It's not as if the roster is completely barren, or that New Orleans plays in some loaded division. The reason so many observers, including myself, are so down on the Saints is because of the questions at quarterback. Spencer Rattler gets the first crack to prove the doubters wrong, and while Kellen Moore insists the situation is settled, it seems like at some point they'll turn to Tyler Shough. I'm confident in that because, from the outside, it felt obvious the Saints wanted Shough to win the job outright, and if things don't go well, they'll be in a prime spot to select a QB high in what could be a stronger year at the position in the 2026 NFL Draft -- so they should want to find out what they have in Shough before then. The defense looks moderately capable, and Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave might offer enough help offensively. But Moore absolutely will have his hands full trying to get the most from this QB room in what could be a long season.