Five weeks in the books, 12 more to go! We're on to Week 6 … and it's packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher those storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.
Justin Fields scrambling vs. Broncos' pass rush
So far this season, only the Buccaneers are pressuring the quarterback at a higher rate than the Broncos, who are getting to the QB on 44.7% of dropbacks. No team brings the QB down at a higher rate, as Denver's 10.6% sack rate is the highest in the league by almost two full percentage points. They've also kept opposing quarterbacks from scrambling, facing the lowest scramble rate in the NFL (3.0%), despite facing Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, among others. None of this bodes particularly well for Justin Fields and the Jets' offensive line, who have surrendered the highest QB pressure rate in the league (50.0%) and have scrambled at the highest rate as well.
The only quarterback to score a rushing touchdown against Denver was Jones back in Week 2 and -- incredibly -- their defense has allowed just 15 rushing yards to the position. On the season. In total. Their 3.0 rush yards per game allowed to quarterbacks would be the lowest by any team in a season since the 2008 Bears. Meanwhile, Fields has not logged fewer than 25 rushing yards in a game this season, and in the eight career starts he has rushed for fewer than 25 yards, he's only scored 15+ fantasy points once. This is shaping up to be an extremely tough matchup for Fields and his skill-set. Unless he can show the Broncos something they haven't seen this year, he might in trouble for fantasy purposes. Denver has also allowed 90+ receiving yards to a wideout just once this year (DeVonta Smith) and 15+ fantasy points just twice (Smith and Keenan Allen). If Patrick Surtain II shadows and locks up Garrett Wilson, the New York offense will be hard-pressed to find any spark on offense in this game.
Fantasy Fallout: For this week, Justin Fields falls out of QB1 range -- closer to QB15 or lower -- in an extremely uncomfortable matchup. If you can stream another option, like Matthew Stafford, Bo Nix, or maybe even Bryce Young, take that option. And while you'll still have to start Garrett Wilson in typical leagues, adjust expectations and avoid him in DFS lineups.
OPOY candidate Puka Nacua to torch Ravens' secondary
Through a record-pacing first five weeks of the season, Puka Nacua has been near the top of just about every relevant receiving metric in existence. He leads the league in receptions (52) and yards (588), and has logged a monster +13.9% catch rate over expected, 3.7 yards per route run and 0.26 EPA per route. As if his hands and the ball were magnetically attracted, Nacua has caught 83.9% of his 62 targets so far this season -- the current record for any wide receiver with 100+ targets in a season is Michael Thomas' 85.0% back in 2018, but Nacua would rank No. 2 on that list. While Nacua has primarily operated outside, he has run 36.6% of his routes from the slot, seen a target on 32.2% of those routes, and caught 16 of those 19 targets for 185 yards (3.1 yards per route run). The only receivers with more yards out of the slot this year are Amon-Ra St. Brown and Wan'Dale Robinson (on 119 slot routes).
In Week 6, Nacua draws a matchup with the Baltimore Ravens, who have been tissue paper on defense this season. They've allowed the most-receiving touchdowns (13) and the second-most receiving yards (1,351, behind only the Cowboys). And against the slot in particular, it's been a disaster. The Ravens have surrendered seven touchdowns, a 133.7 passer rating and a 79.6% completion rate on targets to the slot, all highest in the league. They've allowed 2.42 fantasy points per slot target, most in the league and 0.43 more points per target than the Bears (next-most). Regardless of alignment, only the Cowboys have allowed more fantasy points per game to wide receivers than Baltimore (42.86 PPG). Considering Nacua's 26.8 points per game are the most at the position by more than four points per game, this could very quickly become one of the highest-scoring fantasy days of the year.
Fantasy Fallout: You don't need a reminder or encouragement to start Puka Nacua in typical leagues, he's the most locked-and-loaded stud in fantasy right now. But if you're setting the bar for projections or playing DFS, just know that Nacua has something like a 20-point floor and a basically uncapped ceiling.
Kyle Shanahan's quick passing attack vs. Bucs' pass rush
At the top of this article, you might remember me mentioning that the Buccaneers lead the NFL in quarterback pressure rate. They've pressured the QB on 45.7% of dropbacks, largely by blitzing on 38.3% of dropbacks (third-most in the league). However, despite the frequency with which they get to QBs, they have not been particularly tough or efficient when pressuring. In fact, they're 31st in NFL Pro's pass defense efficiency with pressure, and the 99.8 passer rating they've allowed with pressure is third-highest in the league, behind the Dolphins and Rams. No team has allowed more passing yards (491) or touchdowns (five) with pressure than the Bucs this season.
So, can Kyle Shanahan and whichever quarterback he's got in Week 6 -- Brock Purdy or Mac Jones -- handle that pressure? The data says … it might depend. Filling in as the starter, Jones has a 102.7 passer rating against pressure (third-highest among qualified QBs) and is fifth in both completion rate (62.5%) and success rate (40.5%) against pressure as well. Purdy, on the other hand, has a 43.9 passer rating, 53.1% completion rate and 36.1% success rate against pressure this year. They've thrown the exact same number of attempts against pressures (32), and Jones has completed three more passes for 12 more yards, two TDs and zero INTs, whereas Purdy has thrown one TD and three INTs on those attempts. Notably, Jones has also been pressured on a much lower percentage of his dropbacks (27.2%) than Purdy (46.2%), thanks in large part to a much quicker average time to throw -- 2.67 seconds versus Purdy's 3.04. When Purdy has gotten the ball out quick, his numbers have been among the best in the league (and a good bit better than Jones): 497 yards, six TDs, zero picks, 134.8 passer rating on a 76.9% completion rate. Translation: No matter who starts for San Francisco against this Tampa Bay front, Shanahan should scheme up a ton of quick throws to keep that QB clean.
Fantasy Fallout: Whether it's Brock Purdy or Mac Jones on Sunday, you can stream them in certain situations in a matchup Kyle Shanahan can exploit with the right game plan. Either way, Christian McCaffrey should be a huge beneficiary on dump-off targets in the receiving game, as should tight end Jake Tonges, who gets a very solid matchup in potentially his last start before George Kittle's return.
Jared Goff and Co. on play action vs. Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo
One of the biggest reasons Jared Goff and the Lions offense have remained effective without Ben Johnson is new OC John Morton's willingness to continue featuring play action. After running play action at the second-highest rate in the league during Johnson's tenure (29.3% of dropbacks), Detroit is up at 31.8% this season, third-most frequent behind the Colts and Packers. And, as always, it's working. Goff has thrown for the second-most yards (491) and is tied for the most touchdowns (five) on play-action passes, and his 137.1 passer rating on those passes trails only Lamar Jackson (who has a perfect 158.3 rating on play action). Goff has scored 37.64 fantasy points on play action this year, behind only Dak Prescott (38.52) for most in the league.
How will Morton and Goff's play-action approach fare against Steve Spanguolo's defense on Sunday night in Kansas City? Well, the Chiefs are dead last in NFL Pro's pass defense efficiency against play action, with a +8.6% CPOE, a data-breaking 12.9 yards per attempt, 0.58 EPA/dropback and a 68.6% success rate allowed on play-action dropbacks. Were their 12.9 yards per pass attempt allowed on play action to hold all season, it would be the highest allowed by any team in a season in the Next Gen Stats era (currently the 2019 Raiders at 11.1). Incredibly, they've allowed just 4.7 yards per attempt on 13 non-play-action deep passes (20+ air yards) but allowed 13.3 yards per attempt on eight play-action throws behind the line of scrimmage. When Goff and the Lions use play action -- which should be early and often -- they should be extremely efficient against this Chiefs defensive scheme.
Fantasy Fallout: Jared Goff is notably less productive for fantasy on the road -- 8.77 fewer points per game this season and 6.2 fewer per game since becoming a Lion -- but his efficiency on play action, against this Spagnuolo defense, might make up for that trend. He can be streamed as a fringe QB1 … perhaps over Justin Fields from earlier in this article. And while Amon-Ra St. Brown is a must-start, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta are much more concerning plays, so consider avoiding them if you can.
