In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season, including:
But to kick things off, here's a look at the biggest challenge facing each current division leader ...
The crappy part about a 17-game schedule is that you lose the natural symmetry of breaking the campaign down into quarters. It used to be easier with a 16-game slate to make assertions after Week 4 because you could simply say 25 percent of the regular season was over. It made you feel a little more confident about your evaluations in that world. It also gave you an easier way to compare other four-game stretches to what you saw in September.
But you know what? We're going to forget about the math today and stick with the four-game threshold for the sake of this exercise. It's nearly October, and we're four Sundays into the 2024 season. That's more than enough time to know who looks good at this stage, as well as what hurdles await those teams that are currently perched atop their respective divisions.
Some of these pace setters are familiar faces. Others have surprised us with how successfully they've jumped out of the starting gates. What this edition of The First Read hopes to do is evaluate how hard it's going to be for these current division leaders to remain in first place for the rest of the regular season. Here's what this writer thinks will be the biggest challenge for each of them.
Biggest challenge: Run defense.
There’s admittedly some recency bias here, but how could there not be? The Bills exploded out to a 3-0 start until the Ravens literally ran the ball down their throats on Sunday night. It wasn’t like Buffalo didn’t know what was coming. It’s also not like the Bills had been bad against the run before Week 4 arrived (they hadn’t). It’s just that Buffalo hadn’t faced a rushing attack like Baltimore’s in those first three wins, and its weaknesses showed immediately as it eventually gave up 271 yards on the ground. As soon as Derrick Henry raced off to an 87-yard touchdown run on Baltimore’s first offensive play, you knew it was going to be a long night for Buffalo.
The Bills don't field the biggest defense around, and they’re missing their two best linebackers (Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard). Those factors were going to bite this team at some point, and it just happened to come in a 35-10 beatdown in front of a nationally televised audience. Buffalo will certainly look better against the run in the coming weeks, especially since its next five games will be played against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing. But this is something to remember. It was that bad against Baltimore.
Biggest challenge: The rest of the AFC North.
The Steelers raced out to a 3-0 start before coming back to earth in a 27-24 loss at Indianapolis. What stood out the most in that defeat was how 39-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco replaced injured starter Anthony Richardson and threw two touchdown passes to lead the Colts to victory. That occurrence is evidence that Pittsburgh could be in trouble when it faces teams that don’t have a hard time scoring points. The Steelers have beaten the Falcons (in Kirk Cousins' first game with Atlanta), the Broncos (led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix) and the Chargers (with Justin Herbert unable to finish that game due to an ankle injury). Pittsburgh will find much stiffer challenges when it faces Baltimore and Cincinnati, both of which are talented teams that are fighting to overcome slow starts. As good as the Steelers are defensively, they’re only averaging 18.8 points per game. They’ll need more from quarterback Justin Fields and that side of the ball if they want to stay on top of a division that features star signal-callers Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. The Ravens and Bengals just have a lot more offensive juice, with the ability to score in bunches.
Biggest challenge: Offensive consistency.
The Texans have as much firepower as any team in the NFL. The problem is they haven’t been able to unlock it on a regular basis. Houston is currently averaging fewer than 20 points per game, and that’s nowhere near what people expected from an offense that features quarterback C.J. Stroud, running back Joe Mixon and wide receivers like Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Part of the issue is Mixon’s availability. He’s been sidelined with an ankle injury since Week 2 after gaining 159 yards in a season-opening win over Indianapolis. Penalties haven’t helped, either. As a team, the Texans have 23 of those in the last two games. There’s also the reality that defenses are throwing new looks at Stroud after watching him win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors last season. The Texans knew it would be harder to thrive after coming out of nowhere to win the division last year. They benefit from a weak division -- no other team is above .500 -- but they’ll be more dangerous once that offense starts playing up to expectations.
Biggest challenge: Rejiggering Patrick Mahomes' supporting cast.
The team that is trying to make history by winning its third consecutive Super Bowl is now facing its biggest hurdle in the Mahomes era. The Chiefs already were playing without one key wide receiver (Marquise “Hollywood” Brown) and their hard-charging running back (Isiah Pacheco). Then came Sunday, when wide receiver Rashee Rice sustained a knee injury -- believed to be a torn ACL, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported -- in a win over the Chargers. Losing Rice would be devastating for this offense. He had supplanted tight end Travis Kelce as the most dangerous weapon -- his 24 receptions were 16 more than anybody else on the roster entering Week 4 -- and he was invaluable to this team last year when offensive struggles plagued the Chiefs throughout the regular season. If Rice is lost for the season, head coach Andy Reid won’t have many great options to fuel his offense. The most obvious are the soon-to-be 35-year-old Kelce (who finally had a good game this season with seven receptions for 89 yards against the Chargers), 29-year-old running back Kareem Hunt (who gained 69 yards against Los Angeles after being signed off the street two weeks ago) and rookie Xavier Worthy (who caught a 54-yard touchdown pass Sunday but had just 81 receiving yards through three games). The Chiefs should still win their division because their rivals aren’t strong. However, more ugly games certainly await them.
Biggest challenge: Defense.
Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been one of the best stories of this young season. The problem is that he’ll have to keep playing at an amazingly high level to keep the Commanders rolling in this division. That’s how bad the Washington defense is through four games. That unit came into Week 4 ranked 30th in points allowed and 29th in yards allowed and gave up 181 rushing yards to Arizona on Sunday. The Commanders were able to overcome those issues because the Cardinals aren’t that good defensively -- which is also true for the Bengals, the team Washington beat in Week 3 -- but that’s not a sustainable formula for success. The Eagles will pose plenty of problems once wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are healthy. The Cowboys also have enough offensive talent to do the same thing. That isn’t to say there isn’t a lot to like about the way Washington has started the season, especially when it has scored 80 total points over the last two games. It’s just that balance is a more reliable indication of whether a team can sustain success in this league.
Biggest challenge: The cornerback position.
The Vikings have been so surprisingly good that this feels like nitpicking. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been awesome and the schemes of defensive coordinator Brian Flores have been similarly impressive. So, the only place to go with a team that remains undefeated is a spot that was a major concern coming into the season. The Vikings were so thin at cornerback that they signed veteran Stephon Gilmore during training camp and turned him into an immediate starter. On the other side is Byron Murphy, whom the Packers repeatedly attacked in Sunday’s game. (Murphy still finished with an interception and two pass deflections.) Throw in journeyman Shaquill Griffin, and this isn’t the most imposing bunch. The good news for the Vikings is they haven’t needed to put much pressure on this group. Flores has deftly used edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel with great success, and the offense has averaged 29 points per game. Minnesota’s next three games will come against teams with quarterbacks who can dominate (the Jets, Lions and Rams), so we’ll know even more about this group after those contests.
Biggest challenge: The schedule.
The Buccaneers are about to prove just how good they are in the coming weeks. They have two divisional road games (against the Falcons and Saints) and three games against teams that have Super Bowl aspirations (the Ravens, Chiefs and 49ers). That’s easily the toughest stretch of their season, but the encouraging part is the Bucs already have shown plenty. They have wins over Detroit and Philadelphia (a 33-16 win on Sunday), both of whom have the potential to win the NFC. Their 37-20 victory over Washington in Week 1 looks pretty good, as well, considering how impressively the Commanders have played lately. The Buccaneers also have the pride that comes with knowing they’ve won this division the last three years in a row. Tampa Bay enjoyed that success because the other teams in the NFC South often found ways to kill their own hopes, as the Buccaneers needed just nine and eight wins to claim the last two division titles. It’s likely that the winner of this year’s crown will need to hit double-digit victories. The Bucs would significantly help their cause by finding some big wins over the next month and a half.
Check back for analysis after tonight's Seahawks-Lions game in Detroit.
THREE UP
The Commanders' rookie quarterback might have Offensive Rookie of the Year honors wrapped up by Halloween at this rate. He wowed a prime-time audience in last week’s win over Cincinnati and followed that up by shrewdly managing the game in Sunday’s victory over Arizona. Daniels now has misfired on just 12 passes in his team’s current three-game win streak (70-for-82) and his 82.1 completion percentage is the best for any quarterback in NFL history through four games. Dude is growing up fast.
This is the Derrick Henry we’ve been waiting to see in Baltimore. After averaging just 65 yards in his first two games, he hit the Cowboys for 151 yards in Week 3 and the Bills for 199 in a Sunday night win. What was most encouraging in that Buffalo game was the speed Henry flashed during his 87-yard touchdown run on Baltimore’s first possession. The Ravens were trying to figure out how to work him into the offense on their way to a 0-2 start. They realized the best way is obvious: just feed him the football.
Collins is easily the best receiver in this league who doesn’t get talked about enough. He ranked second in the NFL in receiving yards through three games, and he continued to go off in a Week 4 win over Jacksonville (12 receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown). There was a lot of buzz around Houston when the Texans traded for Stefon Diggs in the offseason. In reality, their best receiver was already on the roster.
THREE DOWN
The same problem that plagued Hurts last season is his primary issue this year: turnovers. He already has seven giveaways through four games, including a lost fumble in Sunday’s loss to Tampa Bay. Yes, the injuries to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith hurt Philadelphia in that defeat. That also makes the quarterback’s mistakes all the more painful, as he now has 27 turnovers dating back to last season.
Somebody please tell us where they’re hiding the Breece Hall who had been such a key part of the Jets' offense in his first two seasons. He’s averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, and he was practically invisible in Sunday’s loss to Denver (10 carries for 4 yards). Hall produced 1,585 total yards last season when he was returning from a torn ACL sustained in his first year. It now feels like rookie Braelon Allen has surpassed him as New York's best option in the running game.
It’s easy to blame quarterback Deshaun Watson for a lot of the problems in Cleveland, but that defense has played a huge role, as well. A unit that was one of the league’s toughest in 2023 has turned into one of its most frustrating. The Browns came into Week 4 ranked 20th in the league in points allowed and then surrendered 152 rushing yards to a Raiders team that had gained 153 total rushing yards through its first three games (and didn’t even have wide receiver Davante Adams available). This likely won’t end well in Cleveland.
WORTHY OF NFL PRO DEEP DIVES
- Falcons over Saints. Atlanta wins it on a Younghoe Koo 58-yard field goal in the final seconds.
- Texans over Jaguars. Houston keeps Jacksonville from its first win of the season on a late touchdown pass from C.J. Stroud.
- Broncos over Jets. Denver pulls off the upset in this defensive struggle.
MOST INTRIGUING GAME OF WEEK 5
Both these teams have started fast and are serious championship contenders. Houston’s only loss has come at the hands of undefeated Minnesota. Buffalo had a strong case for being the NFL’s best team until the Sunday night loss to Baltimore. There’s also that nice little storyline that surrounds the offseason trade that sent Stefon Diggs from Buffalo to Houston. This will be fun.
MVP WATCH
A simple ranking of the top five candidates, which will be updated weekly, depending on performance. Here is how it stands heading into Week 5 (with DraftKings odds as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 30):
- DraftKings odds: +2500
- Weeks in top five: 1
- Next game: vs. Browns | Sunday, Oct. 6
- DraftKings odds: +1300
- Weeks in top five: 2
- Next game: vs. Jets (London) | Sunday, Oct. 6
- DraftKings odds: +350
- Weeks in top five: 4
- Next game: at Texans | Sunday, Oct. 6
- DraftKings odds: +1000
- Weeks in top five: 4
- Next game: vs. Bills | Sunday, Oct. 6
- DraftKings odds: +10000
- Weeks in top five: 1
- Next game: at Bengals | Sunday, Oct. 6
EXTRA POINT
My slowly evolving Super Bowl pick, which also will be updated each week, depending on performances: Bills over Vikings.
Previous picks:
- Week 3: Bills over Packers
- Week 2: Lions over Bengals
- Week 1: Lions over Texans
