Week 16 NFL picks: Steelers or Ravens on Saturday? Will Eagles clinch NFC East with win at Washington?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 16 NFL picks below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 19 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. ** -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SATURDAY, DEC. 21

Why Brooke picked the Chiefs: All eyes will be on Patrick Mahomes' status in the lead-up to Saturday's tilt as he deals with a mild high ankle sprain. There's a good chance "he'll go" with him practicing in full thus far this week. Trotting out the QB with "the loosest ankles in America" isn't ideal if he's less than 100 percent, especially since he has taken an NFL-most 102 QB hits this season. It's equally concerning that the Chiefs, who've averaged just 21 points over their last six games, have averaged 7.3 fewer points per game without Mahomes as the starter since 2018. While this version of K.C.'s offense isn't blowing anyone away, it is taking care of the ball. That will be key against a Houston defense that has the second-most INTs (19) in the league. The Texans are built to frustrate Mahomes in the pocket -- and I expect them to -- as they are applying the third-most pressure to QBs this season. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. each rank in the top seven in sacks with 12 and 10.5, respectively. That unit alone should make me want to sway Houston's way, but it's not that simple. C.J. Stroud's level has dropped off in his sophomore year, with the young quarterback struggling to beat quality foes. Against teams currently in the playoff field, Stroud is 1-3 with a 3:5 TD-to-INT ratio and six total giveaways. Against teams outside the current tourney projection, Stroud is 8-2 with a 14:4 TD-to-INT ratio and seven total giveaways. The Chiefs won't make it easy on Stroud and Co. with their top-five scoring and overall defense. This might be a low-scoring affair, with the defenses likely dictating play for most of the afternoon. I'll take the Chiefs in another one-score game if Mahomes is on the field.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Mahomes was not listed on Friday's injury report, indicating he will play.

Why Ali picked the Ravens: Mike Tomlin lives for these moments: Rivalry game, on the road, late in the season, division title on the line. The man doesn't blink when faced with adversity. But sometimes … less adversity wouldn't be the worst thing. Pittsburgh heads into Saturday's AFC North clash having already ruled out its top receiving threat in George Pickens. And he might not be the only Steeler starter sidelined due to injury, with uncertainty surrounding several others; though, it sounds like All-World edge rusher T.J. Watt should be available. If the Steelers are to clinch the AFC North this weekend -- making it nine wins over the Ravens in their last 10 meetings -- they will need to be as healthy as humanly possible. A "Next man up" approach doesn't typically go well against Lamar Jackson. For his part, the two-time MVP must overcome whatever spell the Steel City has cast on him. Jackson's 66.2 passer rating against Pittsburgh is his worst against any opponent -- and nearly 38 points lower than his average against all other teams (104.1), per NFL Research. Related: Jackson is an ugly 1-4 versus the Steelers and 66-20 against all other teams. John Harbaugh and the Ravens know what's at stake on Saturday, and they know they've been on the wrong end of this rivalry for too long now. I expect this game to be close throughout (28 of 36 Tomlin-Harbaugh meetings have been decided by one score), but this time, the Ravens protect their house (and their division crown), assuring that the AFC North title won't be decided until Week 18.

SUNDAY, DEC. 22

Why Dan picked the Falcons: Coming off a short week with a new QB1, the Falcons are ripe for an upset, but they're running into a team that has not won a game since Oct. 6. That is about as soft a landing as Michael Penix Jr. could ask for as he prepares to make his first NFL start. Since Week 7, the Giants have allowed the highest passer rating in the league (110.3). Their pass rush, which looked like it might be formidable before injuries took their toll, has been even less effective than Atlanta's over that span, with a 29.3 percent pressure rate (fourth-lowest) and 15 sacks (tied for third-fewest). The book on beating Penix during his college days was to force him to make plays outside of the pocket. If the G-Men do that consistently, they can give him a rough welcome to the league. I'm expecting Falcons OC Zac Robinson to set his QB up for success by pounding the ball on the ground with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, and emphasizing quick-hitting pass plays that allow Penix to get rid of the ball before trouble finds him.

Why Ali picked the Cardinals: Coming off their biggest letdown of the campaign -- a stinging 16-point downer to Dallas in Carolina's first game as a favorite this year -- the Panthers, even at 3-11, still have plenty to prove. No one player feels that more than Bryce Young, whose four-turnover showing last Sunday overshadowed the positive steps he'd taken since the start of November. Can he bounce back against one of the league's most enigmatic teams? Maybe. But even if he does, it might amount to nothing more than a moral victory if the Panthers' 32nd-ranked rush defense can't stop the James Conner-Kyler Murray combo. Arizona's rushing attack ranks among the most efficient in the league, while the Panthers' run-stopping unit ranks near the bottom, per NFL Pro. And while the Cards' Jekyll & Hyde act from week to week has made them tough to rely on, one thing they have done consistently is beat up on bad clubs. Jonathan Gannon's group is 5-0 versus teams that are currently under .500 and just 2-7 against squads sporting winning records. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they unquestionably fall into the former bucket. The Cards improve to 2-1 on the East Coast this year to keep themselves in the postseason conversation.

Why Brooke picked the Lions: There's a lot of concern around the Lions right now as they keep losing key players to injury, with the latest casualties being David Montgomery (knee), Alim McNeill (knee) and Carlton Davis III (jaw). Detroit currently has 16 defensive players on IR and has royally struggled to keep anyone out of the end zone of late, allowing a whopping 39.5 points per game over the last two weeks. Now, there's no question that the Jared Goff-led offense can hang with anybody -- even without Montgomery -- with so many talented players forming a pick-your-poison attack. The injuries could become a real issue in the postseason, but in Week 16, Detroit's lucky to get a four-win Bears team on an eight-game skid. If Chicago's offense is to take the next step this season, it should come against this decimated Lions unit. Caleb Williams has done some promising things as a rookie. Not throwing an INT since Week 6 is one of them. That Chicago has averaged just 12.5 points per game in the last two weeks is not. The Bears' offense can't afford more slow starts. That said, if the defense rolls over its inspired second-half performance from the teams' previous meeting in Week 13, this one could get interesting. But I'm not quite swayed enough to pick the underdog.

Why Dan picked the Colts: Here we have two teams that bungled their way to a combined 11 turnovers in their double-digit defeats last week. Sunday's meeting will probably be at least a little less messy because the Titans made a change at quarterback -- benching the giveaway-plagued Will Levis for Mason Rudolph -- and I don't think Jonathan Taylor will ever let go of the ball like he did last week. The unfortunate thing for Tennessee fans is they have already seen this movie and the ending still left a lot to be desired. When Rudolph started three contests earlier this season, he threw at least one INT in each outing and the Titans averaged 14.7 points per game, which is 4.4 points fewer than they average in Levis' starts. Who will play the cleaner game? I don't have much confidence that Anthony Richardson is up to the challenge, with four picks in his last two games, but Indianapolis has taken care of business against sub-.500 teams (5-1) and the defense allowed a season-low 3.2 yards per play to go along with three INTs last week. I'm grasping at straws and taking the home team.

Why Gennaro picked the Rams: When Los Angeles limped into its Week 6 bye with a 1-4 record and enough health issues to open a private practice, it felt like the 2024 Rams were cooked. Two months later, L.A. sits atop the NFC West, having stacked seven wins in nine games. Sounds like … well … last season, when Sean McVay's team won seven of its final eight regular-season games after the bye to nab a wild-card slot. This time around, the division title is there for the taking, with the Rams controlling their own destiny in that race. Win out, and the crown is theirs. So, what's on tap in the final three weeks?

• Sunday: at New York Jets (4-10)
• Week 17: vs. Arizona Cardinals (7-7)
• Week 18: vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)

With the Rams currently riding a three-game win streak, it's not hard to imagine them running the table against that remaining slate. But this blurb only pertains to the next task at hand: beating the Jets, 2,500 miles from home.

New York just won its first game since Halloween, edging out Jacksonville with a vintage aerial assault from Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. In related news, Rodgers only endured six pressures and one sack, per Next Gen Stats, tying his season lows in each category. Can this young Rams front heat up the 41-year-old quarterback? Los Angeles hasn't exactly racked up sacks this season (31, tied for 24th), but the unit has applied steady pressure. I envision Kobie Turner, Jared Verse and Co. forcing Rodgers off his spot (and thus, his game).

Why Tom picked the Eagles: The unbroken string of Ws on Philly's schedule is looking a little freaky, from a picks perspective. At 10 games, the winning streak is the longest in franchise history -- and I'm not super comfortable banking on that run continuing into Week 16, mostly because of how difficult it is to go even a few weeks in the NFL without ending up on the wrong side of a fluky outcome or suffering some misfortune. Like, say, the injuries that A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley were downplaying earlier this week. Washington is also probably the stoutest opponent remaining on the Eagles' schedule. I just think Vic Fangio's defense will ultimately keep Jayden Daniels in check. And, sure, the presence of cornerback Marshon Lattimore -- who missed these teams' Week 11 clash, when Philly established itself as the heavyweight in this NFC East rivalry -- should help the Commanders. But how much can any one player do for a unit that's been allowing 405.5 yards per game against opponents with winning records (fourth-most in the NFL this season)? So, the Eagles should be able to muscle together enough on offense that predicting when they'll lose again in 2024 becomes some future picker's problem.

Why Ali picked the Bengals: Seven starts, 13 touchdowns, 14 turnovers. Jameis Winston's limited run this season is a microcosm of his 10-year pro career. His highs are as thrilling and entertaining as his lows are mind-numbing and defeating. And it's for exactly this reason the Browns want to see what’s behind Door No. 3. Second-year player Dorian Thompson-Robinson, set to start just his fourth NFL game, will have an opportunity Sunday to show he should be in consideration for the team's long-term plans at the position. As far as defenses to face in your season debut as QB1, Cincinnati's bottom-five unit is among the best you could hope for this year. But DTR's last meeting with Lou Anarumo's group, in relief of an injured Deshaun Watson back in October, did not go very well for the young passer (11 of 24 for 82 yards and two picks). DTR did make a few plays with his legs, however, which is an element to his game Kevin Stefanski will surely try to lean on this weekend. But if DTR is unable to have success through the air (his 1:7 career TD-to-INT ratio suggests he might not), Cleveland will have a tough time keeping pace with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and a Bengals offense playing at a franchise-best level. The Browns' defense, despite its talent at all three levels, can only withstand so many miscues by the team's offense -- eventually, the league's best QB-WR duo is going to make hay.

Why Brooke picked the Vikings: Minnesota and Seattle are right in the thick of the playoff race. While the Vikings have already clinched a berth, they still have a chance to take the division and the top seed in the NFC. The Seahawks just lost pole position in the NFC West and are currently on the outside looking in. Seattle is optimistic that up-and-down quarterback Geno Smith will be able to play after sustaining a knee injury in last week's loss to Green Bay. Whether it's Geno or backup Sam Howell, both of whom are INT machines, Brian Flores' ballhawking defense awaits (cue Cam Bynum and the epic celebrations). Smith has thrown the third-most picks (13) this season, including four in the end zone, while Howell tossed one in 14 pass attempts last week playing in relief of Smith. Seattle's offense could struggle with questions surrounding its QB and Zach Charbonnet going against the league's No. 2-ranked run defense, but this is a home game. We'll see if Sam Darnold can keep cooking in front of the 12s. The biggest issue for his offense will be the Seahawks' ability to create pressure. According to Next Gen Stats, Seattle has generated unblocked pressures at the fourth-highest rate (8.2 percent) this season and has five players with at least 30 pressures, most of any team. Vikings LT Cam Robinson must be on his Ps and Qs after committing four penalties last week against the Bears and allowing 39 pressures since joining the team in Week 9 (most of any lineman during that span). If Robinson and the O-line hold up, and Minnesota's defense continues to do its job, Kevin O'Connell's group will keep putting pressure on Detroit.

Why Gennaro picked the Bills: They have significant advantages on both sides of the ball, an experience edge in coaching and a 6-0 home record that's littered with beatdowns. A Patriots win would be the biggest upset of the season -- and that's OK! Because in the life cycle of NFL teams, New England's a zygote while Buffalo's a fully formed Super Bowl contender. So, instead of using the remaining space here to drone on about the pronounced differences between these division rivals, I'd like to spotlight one random thing they have in common: a cornerback named Christian who deserves more shine.

Let's start in New England. After immediately flashing in an injury-abbreviated rookie campaign, Christian Gonzalez has officially emerged as one of the stickiest cover men in football. Don't take my word for it -- ask the guys who play against him. Like A.J. Brown. And Tyreek Hill. And Kyler Murray, who just gave the second-year pro quite a compliment in the postgame dap-up this past Sunday: "Big fan, fella. Big fan, bro. Keep doing your thing."

Meanwhile, Buffalo has its own young CB worthy of adulation. You wouldn't know it by his draft pedigree (sixth-round pick in 2022) or jersey number (47), but Christian Benford is a rising star at the position. And like Gonzalez, Benford draws immense respect from opponents -- just look at how they treat him on the field of play. According to Next Gen Stats, the only qualified corners who've been targeted less than Benford are Pat Surtain II, Jaylon Johnson and A.J. Terrell Jr.

Did I just hijack this predictions blurb and turn it into a vehicle for arbitrary praise? Indeed I did. It's the holiday season -- spread joy, y'all!

Why Dan picked the Jaguars: It's been a horror of a season for the Jaguars, but they have at least been competitive since their Week 12 bye, playing three consecutive one-possession games with a road win sandwiched between losses. The offense even showed legitimate punch last week in a 25-point, 421-yard outburst. The Raiders haven't reached 25 points in a game since Sept. 15 and couldn't figure out a way to win in front of the home crowd on Monday night against a QB who completed just 11 passes and has since lost his job. The Las Vegas defense has lost its sturdy foundation with Maxx Crosby joining Christian Wilkins on injured reserve, and the offense is left to hope for a strong return from injury for Aidan O’Connell -- who is 0-4 as a starter this season -- because of how lifeless it was with Desmond Ridder at the controls. A healthy O'Connell is an improvement under center, but I don't know if it will be enough.

Why Gennaro picked the 49ers: Because I no longer fear Mike McDaniel conducting a laser light show. What happened to the explosive element of this offense? Running back De'Von Achane averaged a whopping 7.8 yards per carry in 11 games as a rookie. Through 14 games in Year 2, that figure has been slashed in half to 3.9 ypc. Now, we all know the offense came to a grinding halt during the four games Tua Tagovailoa missed with a concussion, but let's look at the quarterback himself. Air yards per attempt is a straightforward measurement by Next Gen Stats that tells you which passers are pushing the ball downfield most often. In 2022, McDaniel's first year in Miami, Tua averaged a robust 9.6 AY/A, ranking second in the NFL. Last season, that number dipped to 7.8, ranking 15th. But this year, Tagovailoa's average has plummeted to 5.5, ranking dead last among all qualified quarterbacks. Unsurprisingly, Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle dynamism has been in much shorter supply in 2024. Simply put, McDaniel's Fins just don't drop bombs like they used to.

Now, San Francisco's defense has been disappointing for much of the season, but the group has played better as it's gotten healthier over the last few weeks. And the Nick Bosa-led front should have its way with Miami's offensive line -- the injured, ineffectual unit that could be the true root of all the problems detailed above.

Why Tom picked the Buccaneers: The Cowboys have been kind of stressing me out lately. In Weeks 10 and 11, they lost by a combined margin of 52 points to the Eagles and Texans, suggesting they'd be easy picks fodder for the remainder of the Cooper Rush era. Since then, they've been on the feisty side, winning three of their next four -- and if not for one mortifying prime-time gaffe against the Bengals, they might have gone 4-0. Still, they didn't face a squad in that stretch that is quite as hot as the Bucs, who are on a non-hypothetical four-game winning streak, during which their average margin of victory has been 16 points. I wouldn't hand-wave away Dallas' defensive improvement over the past month; Baker Mayfield and Co. might have to put some work in. I do think Tampa -- which has averaged 455.5 yards per game over the past four weeks, second only to the Bills in that span -- will splash a healthy amount of cold water on the Cowboys' late-season mini-surge.

MONDAY, DEC. 23

Why Brooke picked the Packers: I'm sorry, but does anyone outside of the team facility think the Saints can go to Lambeau and beat these Packers in a Christmas Eve Eve prime-time game? Jordan Love is on fire. He has posted a 100-plus passer rating in each of his last five games and hasn't thrown an interception in his last four starts. What's more, the passing attack isn't even the offense's bread and butter. That label belongs to Josh Jacobs, who has routinely run over opposing defenses and has scored 12 rush TDs, including nine in his last five games. This offense looks virtually unstoppable right now -- a scary thought for the rest of the NFC. The defense has been no slouch, either, with the NFL's eighth-best scoring D (20.5 points per game). That unit should have zero issues with Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener, who are 0-4 in combined starts this season. Prepare to hear a ton of "Go Pack Go" chants on the Monday Night Football broadcast.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Saints interim head coach Darren Rizzi announced Thursday that Spencer Rattler will be the starting quarterback on Monday night.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Tom picked the Broncos: Both teams have shown they can win ugly this season, but the Chargers don't have a victory on their ledger quite like Denver's triumph in Week 15, when the offense failed to clear 200 yards, Bo Nix threw three picks -- and the final score (31-13) still suggested a blowout. Nor have the Bolts won a game when they surrendered 500-plus yards, as the Broncos did against Cleveland the last time we saw them in prime time, back in Week 13. Things are liable to get wild and messy in this short-week, high-stakes showdown between divisional rivals, and I have more faith in Sean Payton's group to find a way to withstand the chaos (and absences of Jaleel McLaughlin and Riley Moss) than I do in the Bolts, especially knowing Justin Herbert is dealing with an ankle injury. The Chargers aren't wholly dependent on the QB to win, but they do better when he plays well: In games when Herbert finishes with a passer rating under 92, L.A. is 1-3, with the one victory (over the Falcons in Week 13) resting on Kirk Cousins' four picks. The Broncos have four losses when Nix posts a sub-92 passer rating -- but they also have five wins. Whatever Nix's final numbers look like, I think Denver can scrap its way to victory No. 10 on the year.

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