Broncos-Chargers on Prime Video, NFL+: Four things to watch for on 'Thursday Night Football' in Week 16

• WHERE: SoFi Stadium | Inglewood, Calif.
• WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video, NFL+

Thursday night’s game between the Broncos and Chargers will go a long way toward determining playoff seeding. That’s why it became the first game to be flexed into the Thursday slot since late-season Thursday flex scheduling was approved prior to the 2023 season.

The Chiefs have wrapped up the AFC West, but both teams are in great shape for wild-card berths. The Broncos and Chargers sit at sixth and seventh, respectively, in the AFC playoff slots now.

The 9-5 Broncos can clinch their first playoff spot since their Super Bowl 50 title season with a win on Thursday. They also can get in with a loss and the Bengals, Colts and Dolphins all losing in Week 16.

The 8-6 Chargers can’t clinch Thursday but can get into the playoffs this week by beating the Broncos and having the Colts and Dolphins also lose on Sunday. 

Although the Chargers won the first meeting this season in Week 6, cruising to a 23-0 lead before hanging on late, the Broncos have won four straight while the Chargers have dropped three of their past four games.

Sean Payton last made the postseason with the Saints in the 2020 season. Jim Harbaugh hasn’t coached in the NFL playoffs since the 2013 season, spending the past nine years at the University of Michigan. The 60-year-old coaches are two of the league’s best, meeting Thursday with important postseason positioning on the line.

Here are four things to watch for when the Broncos visit the Chargers on Thursday night on Prime Video and NFL+:

1) Bo Nix hopes to avoid slow start, replicate fourth-quarter success from Week 6. When the Chargers and Broncos met in Week 6, Nix struggled badly the first three quarters (4 of 14 passing, 27 yards, INT) before rallying to lead two TD drives and a field goal in a massive fourth quarter. That kind of woke Nix up in his rookie season. He’d thrown for five TDs and five INTs in his first six games, averaging 180.3 pass yards per game, and was more reliant on his legs. But in the eight games since he’s totaled 15 TDs and six INTs, averaging 236.3 yards per game and running less often. Nix struggled with the Chargers’ heavy zone approach early but completed 15 of 19 passes for 189 yards and two TDs, despite heavy pressure. That’s the Nix who Denver needs on Thursday. He was erratic against the Colts last week, throwing three interceptions vs. zone defense despite not facing much heat from them. But the Chargers struggled badly to stop Baker Mayfield and the Bucs’ passing game this past Sunday, getting shredded when they tried to play man and not faring much better in zone. Can Jesse Minter’s defense confuse and slow down Nix a second time? 

2) Justin Herbert dealing with ankle injury in big game. The Chargers know that they go as Herbert goes. That’s why the news that he’s dealing with a left ankle sprain is concerning, having been limited in practice this week. Herbert came out strong against the Bucs but didn’t look right in the second half, completing only 9 of 17 passes for 65 yards and an interception before giving way to Taylor Heinicke late in the blowout. In addition to the injury, Herbert’s lack of consistent weapons has also been a problem. Ladd McConkey has been a rookie standout, and Quentin Johnston has had some big games. Even TE Stone Smartt has stepped up into a semi-featured role in recent weeks. But most of this has been out of need, as the Chargers simply lack the skill-position firepower, especially after the loss of running back J.K. Dobbins, of other contenders. The Chargers’ pass protection has also been a problem. If left tackle Zion Johnson can’t go for this game, that further weakens an already somewhat disappointing offensive line. tight end Will Dissly has remained sidelined at practice, although Hayden Hurst has returned to action after his IR stint. The Chargers might need all hands on deck to help Herbert and dent a good Denver defense.

3) Broncos’ defense features two elite playmakers. The Broncos rank close to the top of the NFL in defensive efficiency, leading the league in sacks and tied for the fewest points allowed, with two Pro Bowl candidates setting the one for them. The first is CB Patrick Surtain II, who has developed into one of the league’s best corners over the past few seasons. Among corners with 400 or more coverage snaps, Surtain is tied for the fewest targets (43) and the fewest yards per target at 4.9. He suffered an ankle injury on Sunday but has been listed as a full participant in practice leading up to Thursday. His sidekick, Riley Moss, who has missed the past two games with a knee injury, could also be back to bolster the secondary closer to full strength. The other major contributor this year has been Nik Bonitto, who has scored a TD in the past two games, via interception and fumble returns. He also leads Denver in sacks with 11.5, one of five Broncos with at least five this season. With the Chargers failing to protect Herbert adequately at times, Bonitto figures to be a key player to watch. He had a sack and two QB hits in the first meeting and will be licking his chops for more.

4) Chargers’ defense needs bounceback effort. The Chargers and Broncos, along with the Eagles, are allowing the fewest points per game in the NFL this season at 17.6. But the Chargers have had some humbling moments in recent games against explosive offenses, including Sunday at home against the Bucs, allowing 512 yards and 40 points. They also previously had trouble containing offenses of the Bengals and Ravens. The question is whether the Broncos offer that caliber firepower. Courtland Sutton is a top-tier playmaker, and he and Troy Franklin both scored against the Chargers last time, although it’s hard to call the Broncos an explosive offense, even with big outings recently against the Browns and Falcons. Still, the Chargers’ struggles Sunday were eye-opening. They’d been an elite third-down defense through 12 games, allowing only 33.3% to be converted, but the Chargers gave up conversions on 17-of-30 third downs in the losses to Kansas City and Tampa Bay. They also haven’t forced a punt in more than five quarters and haven't forced a turnover in five of their past eight games. The possible return of LB Denzel Perryman is encouraging, but the Chargers’ secondary appears to be battered and bruised heading into this big game.