The 2025 NFL season is still young, and it will be a while before any team is mathematically eliminated from the postseason race. History tells us there is a clear fork in the road for teams sitting at 3-2 heading into Week 6, though. Of the 302 teams to start a season with a 3-2 record since 1990, 50.3 percent made the playoffs, 25.8 percent won their division and 3.6 percent (11 teams) won the Super Bowl, according to NFL Research.
Heading into Week 6, there are seven 3-2 teams:
- Denver Broncos
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Minnesota Vikings
- New England Patriots
- Seattle Seahawks
- Washington Commanders
Today, I'm predicting which half of those teams will make the postseason. And since there is an odd number of teams, I have decided to round up to four teams, given that this is my column -- and my rules. Here are the four 3-2 teams that I think will be playing in mid-January.
The Broncos just knocked off the defending champions on the road, scoring 18 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to secure the statement victory. If anyone was sleeping on Denver, they shouldn't be any longer. The Broncos could easily be 5-0, but they lost consecutive games to the Colts and Chargers on the final play of regulation (by a combined total of four points). GM George Paton and head coach Sean Payton have built a well-rounded roster. The Bo Nix-Courtland Sutton connection is heating up and the run game with J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey is a top-four unit. Five weeks into the season, the Broncos defense appears to be picking up where it left off at the end of the 2024 campaign. Denver ranks second in scoring defense and leads the NFL with 21 sacks (five more than any other team). Nik Bonitto leads all players with seven sacks through five games. One of the biggest things playing in the Broncos' favor is the schedule. Over the next six games, they don't face a single team with a record above .500. This group looks poised to build on its 10 wins from last season.
A common theme for the four teams I'm including here is they all have proven head coaches. Jim Harbaugh will put his players in the best position to succeed -- despite the litany of injuries -- and find a way to win. The Chargers are without both starting tackles (Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt) and starting running back Omarion Hampton is heading to injured reserve. Those are tough blows, but they still have one of the league's most talented passers in Justin Herbert, who is discovering how dangerous he can be on the run. The receiving corps has become more reliable with Keenan Allen recapturing some of the magic he showed during his first stint with the franchise and Quentin Johnston performing at a level closer to his status as a former first-round pick. Defensively, the Chargers are a top-10 unit with stout playmakers from Tuli Tuipulotu to Derwin James. The addition of edge rusher Odafe Oweh, who recorded 10 sacks last season with Baltimore, should certainly help matters. This is a selfless team that churns out positive plays and is up to whatever challenge is ahead of it. I think the AFC West will have three teams make the postseason, with the 2-3 Chiefs joining the Broncos and Chargers.
The Rams suffered a tough loss to a division rival at home last week. But make no mistake, this is a team we'll be watching in the postseason. The offense has the necessary components to be the league's best -- it ranks No. 2 in yards per game right now -- with an elite play-caller in Sean McVay, an experienced quarterback in Matthew Stafford and one of the NFL's top receiving duos in Puka Nacua (the receiving yards leader through five weeks) and Davante Adams. The 37-year-old Stafford is still playing at a high level, throwing for at least 375 yards and three TDs in back-to-back games. Defensively, there are things to tighten up with the struggling secondary missing cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon. With the Rams set to visit Baltimore (which could be without Lamar Jackson, and a host of others, once again) and Jacksonville before a Week 8 bye, Los Angeles should be in good position to vie for a second straight division title down the stretch. The NFC West is one of the better divisions this season, and while there are three above-average teams (Rams, 49ers and Seahawks), I don't think all three will make the postseason. Sorry, Seahawks.
The Commanders' season hinges on the health of Jayden Daniels. When he's not on the field, the Commanders play outside of themselves, and that's not a recipe for sustained success. But in Week 5, we saw just how good the offense can be with the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year back in the lineup. After trailing 10-0 at the end of the first quarter, Daniels led the Commanders to 27 unanswered points -- without Terry McLaurin -- to beat the Chargers in Los Angeles. It was a highly impressive win that reminded all of us of what's possible with a QB like Daniels. His ability to not only move the chains with his arm and legs but take care of the football deserves praise, and it's the type of play that leads me to believe there will be no sophomore slump in the DMV. With Daniels' scrambling ability and the job Jacory Croskey-Merritt has done of late, along with a few others, Washington boasts the NFL's best rushing attack. The veteran-led defense certainly has room for improvement under Dan Quinn -- ranking 24th in yards allowed per game and ninth in scoring -- but the unit has made several notable plays in big moments (SEE: Mike Sainristil's goal-line interception). This team is too talented. With Daniels leading the way, it'll be in the playoff mix once again, and no one will be surprised this time.
