- WHERE: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- WHEN: 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS, Paramount+, NFL+
The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are developing into one of the NFL’s best non-divisional rivalries, and Sunday figures to be another stirring chapter for the two franchises.
The Chiefs are attempting what no team has yet done: win three straight Super Bowls. The Bills, who have never won the Lombardi Trophy, are trying to get back to the game for the first time since the 1993 campaign.
The teams’ rivalry technically dates back to 1960, in the AFL’s inaugural season, but the recent showdowns between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have escalated it to another level. The Bills and Chiefs have met eight times since 2020, including three times in the postseason.
Buffalo is 4-1 in the regular-season meetings, and Kansas City is 3-0 in their playoff games -- including epic Divisional Round games during the 2021 and 2023 seasons.
After Sunday, Allen and Mahomes will trail only one elite QB duo -- Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, who faced each other five times in the postseason -- for most playoff matchups between two quarterbacks.
The Bills were the only team to take down the Chiefs this season when they were playing their starters, a 30-21 game in Buffalo back in Week 11. This one shifts to Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs haven’t lost a meaningful game since Christmas 2023.
Sunday’s weather in Kansas City is expected to be cold, dropping into the 20s, although snow does not appear to be in the forecast. But this matchup feels like an all-timer, whether it’s sunny and clear or cold and wet.
Here are four things to watch for in this Championship Sunday showdown between the Bills and Chiefs:
1) Do the Chiefs dare blitz Josh Allen this time? The Bills have been a more balanced offense in 2024, dialing back on Allen's pass attempts and running the ball slightly more often. The result has been arguably Allen's most efficient season on a play-by-play basis, reducing his sacks and interceptions significantly. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spaguolo has never truly slowed Allen down in their numerous meetings, and it's worth questioning if the Chiefs need to blitz less often in this game. On the one hand, that has been their bread and butter -- and the Chiefs are far more effective getting pressure with extra rushers. But on the other hand, Allen has handled the blitz exceptionally well -- both historically against Kansas City and this season on the whole.
The Chiefs blitzed at a 35.8% rate this season, which was the highest in the NFL, and they did so at an even higher rate (37.8%) in Week 11. Allen threw one foolish (and uncharacteristic, for this season) interception versus pressure in that game, but he otherwise handled the Chiefs, not taking a single sack.
Spagnuolo took a far more conservative approach in the 2023 Divisional Round meeting against Allen and the Bills, blitzing a mere 17.8% of his dropbacks -- the lowest blitz rate for any Chiefs games over the past two seasons, per Next Gen Stats -- and it seemed to work. Allen was 5 of 6 passing for 48 yards against the blitz, but on non-blitz passes he was only 21 for 33 for 138 yards, yielding a meager 4.2 yards per pass attempt.
Of course, a lot depends on the battle up front. Chris Jones and a strong Chiefs front will be battling with the Bills' elite offensive line. Offensive tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown have anchored the edges, the unit is solid up the middle and Buffalo has also leaned on sixth OL Alec Anderson as a regular contributor, especially in the run game.
Jones has only one sack in eight games against the Bills, but he notched seven pressures versus Allen in Week 11 and caused problems up front. Regardless, he'll need more help this time around. George Karlaftis is coming off his first career three-sack game against the Texans, but he was held quiet last time in Buffalo. Charles Omenihu, who missed the first meeting, also has come on as a pressure source. If the Chiefs are going to rush four more often than normal, they'll all need to be highly effective penetrating into the backfield.
2) Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs trying to continue ball-control success. The Bills were the stingiest team in terms of giveaways, turning the ball over a mere eight times all season, including playoffs. But the Chiefs somehow are on an even better roll with turnovers recently.
The last time Kansas City turned the ball over in a game? That would be the two it had -- both Mahomes picks -- in the last meeting in Week 11. Since then, the Chiefs have forced 11 opponent turnovers, with zero fumbles or interceptions of their own.
Not shockingly, that formula has been a big part of their success. The Chiefs have now won 37 straight games, dating back to 2019, when they've won the turnover battle. They even beat the Bills in that 2023 Divisional game despite being minus-1 in turnovers that contest -- the only NFL team to win a playoff game in the negative since the 2022 Divisional Round.
It has been harder for the Chiefs to hang onto the football against the Bills traditionally, as Buffalo holds a net plus-7 turnover margin in their last 10 meetings. That's the Bills' M.O.: They want to turn you over. Buffalo's defense has suffered enough attrition that its not geared to shut down high-powered offenses; its best path is stealing possessions, as the group did in the first meeting (plus-1 in turnovers).
The Bills finished the regular season tied for third in turnovers created (32), and they've added three more in the playoffs. Getting to Mahomes and getting hands on his passes is surely a big part of Sean McDermott's game plan for Sunday. But Mahomes will bring a 262-pass INT-less streak into the conference title game.
The Bills got pressure rushing four on Mahomes' first pass attempt in Week 11, and he overthrew his receiver for an interception. That pressure continued on the next series, but its effectiveness did wane a bit over the course of the game. Something similar played out last week in Buffalo, as the Bills defense started out with high energy and effectiveness on the whole but appeared to run low on gas by game's end.
Protecting Mahomes is a mostly strong offensive line that nonetheless has had to adapt. Joe Thuney has done his best since sliding out to left tackle, but he's had his hands full as a pass blocker. Buffalo's Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa have had good seasons, but they'll need to heat the edges up better than they did against the Ravens. On the flip side, the Chiefs' right side -- Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor -- also had trouble handling the Bills' rush in the previous meeting.
3) How will Chiefs defend Bills' other play-makers? Dealing with Josh Allen is tough enough. The Bills have become more diverse offensively, though, to where the burden is not falling completely on his shoulders every game.
James Cook has spearheaded a more effective run game, and the Bills have shown they have trust giving the ball to Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis in key spots. They all figure to be big parts of the rushing plan, as well as outlet options in the passing game.
The Chiefs have been a strong run-defending team on the whole this season. But tackling was an issue in the team's first meeting, and the Chiefs haven't been quite as sharp against the run down the stretch, allowing 509 rushing yards the past three outings (including playoffs).
Don't rule out the Bills taking a more run-heavy approach in this game, and that includes designed runs for Allen -- as they did last week facing the Ravens. For whatever reason, Allen has historically been more effective using his legs against the Chiefs in the playoffs (7.6 yards per carry) compared to regular-season meetings (4.1).
But one of the other byproducts of a more balanced attack this season has been Allen spreading the ball around to various receivers in the passing game. Khalil Shakir has been Allen's main man, and Shakir gave the Chiefs some trouble in Week 11, but 10 different pass catchers have 17 or more receptions this season. That largely has carried on through two playoff games.
The Chiefs should be in a better position to handle Shakir, who had eight catches for 70 yards in the first meeting, with Jaylen Watson back after missing that contest. Trent McDuffie never once faced off against Shakir, whom safety Chamarri Conner struggled to stick with, likely because the Chiefs were shorthanded in the secondary.
Then again, neither tight end Dalton Kincaid nor wide receiver Keon Coleman suited up in that first game, either. How Spagnuolo issues his coverage assignments will be interesting, but it would be surprising if McDufflie -- who's quite comfortable defending the slot -- didn't see a lot of Shakir.
Amari Cooper and Coleman have been relatively quiet so far in the playoffs, with Curtis Samuel stepping up more after a disappointing regular season. Samuel also was a big factor in the first meeting, with five catches for 58 yards and a TD that put Buffalo up two scores in the fourth quarter.
4) Who else will step up for Kansas City besides Travis Kelce? Kelce continues to make his case as the best pass catcher in NFL playoff history, currently sitting first all-time in receptions and behind only Jerry Rice in yards and touchdowns. Last week against the Texans, he led the way with seven catches for 117 yards, passing Rice for most 100-yard receiving playoff games with nine. He also caught a TD and has had a history of killing the Bills in the playoffs (26-289-5 receiving in three games).
In Week 11, the Bills did everything they could to take Kelce out of the game, and it was successful, holding him to two short catches for 8 yards. Assuming they take this same approach, who will step up for the Chiefs in the passing game?
Last week versus Houston, the Chiefs had issues generating offense with anyone not named Kelce. The ground game was held in check. Xavier Worthy had five catches but netted only 37 yards on six touches total. Mahomes was 4 of 10 passing for 15 yards when targeting anyone besides Kelce and Worthy.
Isiah Pacheco wasn't healthy the last time these teams met, but even back on the field, he's been held down lately, averaging fewer than 4.0 yards rushing in each of his past five outings, with a long run of 10 yards. He's also contributed little as a receiver. Could he be a bigger part of the game plan?
The Chiefs also would like to see DeAndre Hopkins produce more. He's been relatively quiet lately and didn't do much in his two outings against the Bills this season -- one with the Titans and one after coming to the Chiefs via trade. Games such as this are why the Chiefs brought him onboard.
The Bills secondary is a little banged up heading into Sunday, with S Taylor Rapp (back/hip) considered day to day after missing both practices so far this week. CB Christian Benford also remains in the concussion protocol. Both left Sunday's win over the Ravens, really thinning out the secondary by game's end.
Buffalo is a zone-heavy defense, and both of Mahomes' picks in Week 11 came versus zone, so you can expect more of the same. But if the Bills are shorthanded in the secondary again, they'll have to hope the pass rush can offset the drop-off in coverage.
