Cowboys vs. Lions: Three must-know storylines for Thursday's Week 14 prime-time game

It's hard to have more on the line for a late-season Thursday game than this one.

The Cowboys travel to Detroit for a pivotal matchup in terms of playoff consideration, with the Lions currently sitting in the first spot outside the NFC postseason field and Dallas one spot behind them.

Next Gen Stats currently projects the Lions with a 42% chance to make the playoffs; that jumps to 59% with a win over Dallas but drops to 22% with a loss. Likewise, the Cowboys -- who currently have a 17% chance to make it -- rise to 31% with a win but fall to a mere 6% playoff likelihood with a loss.

The Lions (45 victories) are the winningest Thursday team in NFL history, one game ahead of the Cowboys (44), but this one has more than obscure history on the line. With two desperate teams whose playoff lives are at stake facing off, each with explosive offensive firepower, it's hard to beat this potential banger at Ford Field.

Three must-know storylines

1) Gibbs remains Detroit's offensive firestarter

It might sound cliché to say that as Jahmyr Gibbs goes, so do the Lions offensively, but the numbers pretty starkly back that notion up. His receiving numbers are fairly steady in wins vs. losses, but when Gibbs is held in check in the run game, it has been hard for the Lions to thrive offensively. In Detroit's seven victories, Gibbs has averaged 7.4 yards per carry and has 10 rushing touchdowns; in five losses, he's averaged 3.2 yards per rush and held out of the end zone. In fact, he hasn't scored a TD in any of their losses. The Lions haven't scored more than 24 points in their losses, and they've only scored fewer than 34 points in all but one of their victories. Gibbs has been Detroit's engine this season, and he could be even more important given that wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown's ankle injury status clouds his availability for this game. The Lions have other receiving weapons they can lean on, such as Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa, but they also need Gibbs to thrive early in this game. The Cowboys have had their struggles defensively this season, allowing four backs to accumulate 120-plus yards in a game against them. But Dallas' defense also has improved since the arrival of DT Quinnen Williams and has been more susceptible to elite receiving threats than to big-play backs.

2) Cowboys' defensive improvement

It's no easy task slowing down this Lions offense, even with a few starters potentially missing, but Dallas' improved defensive performance has been a key to staying in the postseason hunt. Adding Quinnen Williams has made a tangible difference. In his three games as a Cowboy, they're 3-0, allowing 9.1 fewer points per game and 85.1 fewer yards. The difference in third-down execution -- opponents averaged a 52.6% conversion rate before Williams, but 35.1% since his arrival -- has been stark. The return of LB DeMarvion Overshown also has helped, but Williams seemingly has energized young DLs Donovan Ezeiruaku, Osa Odighizuwa, Sam Williams and others. Jared Goff remains one of the league's most dangerous passers, but he's been sacked at a 6.4% rate this season -- his highest since his first season in Detroit -- and it has risen to 7.9% since Week 5. Staying ahead of the sticks has been a Lions strength in recent years, but they've been a less effective team this season on third down than in 2024, and the Lions have failed on their past seven fourth-down tries. Sacks and other negative-yardage plays have been a big reason why. The Cowboys can't cover all of Detroit's weapons for four quarters unless the pass rush is getting home, putting the Lions in as many long-yardage situations as possible. Their recent performances suggest it's possible, even against Detroit.

3) Lions pass rush must affect Prescott

It's not easy to sack Dak Prescott most games, but teams that have more success doing it tend to have an easier time beating the Cowboys. Prescott has been sacked two or more times in four games this season, with one or zero sacks in the other eight games. In games with one or fewer sacks, he's averaged 8.0 yards per attempt, with a TD rate of 7.6% and an INT rate of 0.7%. In his two-plus sack games, Prescott is averaging 6.5 yards per pass attempt and has worse TD (2.5%) and INT rates (3.7%). The Lions' pass rush has been spotty this season. After averaging four sacks per game from Weeks 2 through 9, they have had only four total in their past four games -- two of which have been damaging losses to playoff-contending teams. Aidan Hutchinson is playing the majority of the defensive snaps and has seen his effectiveness wane. And even with a good interior group, the Lions are not getting enough consistent pressure from the likes of Al-Quadin Muhammad and Marcus Davenport (and Derrick Barnes, playing out of position) at the other edge spot. If Detroit can't get Prescott off his spots, then it could be a field day for Cowboys WRs George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb against a thinner Lions secondary.

Cowboys' Week 14 injury report

Lions' Week 14 injury report