NFL Power Rankings, Week 18: Red-hot Jaguars soar to No. 3, while 49ers replace Bills in top five

I won't call the Seahawks' win at Carolina a work of art -- too sloppy for that -- but it was a pretty dominant defensive showing for Mike Macdonald's group. This D can turn your lights out pretty quickly, and it has been fun watching the mix of young and old, from rookie Nick Emmanwori to the terrific DeMarcus Lawrence, come together to form a gritty unit this season. Sam Darnold was shaky at times in his return to Charlotte and should feel lucky he only had two turnovers, but Seattle's run game came to life in a big way. That feels like an important development on the eve of the playoffs and prior to a Week 18 showdown in Santa Clara that will decide the NFC's No. 1 seed. No easy chore, beating the 49ers in their crib, but a first-round bye and home-field advantage are right there for the Seahawks' taking.

The Patriots' blowout of the Jets and the Bills' loss to the Eagles gave New England its first division title since the Brady-Belichick era. Always nice to sit your starting QB with a quarter and a half remaining. Drake Maye will be in the MVP running, and Mike Vrabel has to be on the short list for Coach of the Year, but the Patriots have their sights set higher than hats, T-shirts and individual awards. The AFC feels completely open, and New England figures to get important players back on offense (including WR Kayshon Boutte and OLs Will Campbell and Jared Wilson) and defense (DT Milton Williams and LB Robert Spillane). WR Mack Hollins and OLB Harold Landry III are big losses if they can't get right, but this Patriots team has a talented, well-coached roster with nothing to lose and everything to gain. A third test against the Bills almost feels preordained, but if the Pats beat them, who is definitely stopping New England on the AFC side?

The Jaguars were pretty shaky early against the Colts, fortunate to only be trailing 10-7 at the half. Then the offense got going, the defense clamped down and the better team won -- it was the Jags' seventh straight victory in a breakthrough season few saw coming. What they've done since their Week 8 bye has been nothing short of admirable, and they're as legitimate a contender as just about anyone in the AFC field right now. But there is one area they absolutely can improve in prior to the postseason: the red zone. Their 60% TD rate down there ranks them in the upper half of the league, and their 39 TDs are impressive, but Sunday brought two more RZ turnovers, raising their season total to six. Coughing it up twice in the money zone against Indianapolis is one thing; doing so in a playoff game would be another entirely.

How much do the loss to the Jaguars and the close win over a stripped-down Chiefs team change our perspective on the Broncos' playoff potential? They're in great shape for the AFC's No. 1 seed, and yet, there's lingering doubt about just how dangerous they are. If Denver can run the ball and control the clock like it did in Kansas City, things should be OK. The defense can clean up most missed opportunities, but it's also a unit that has been stretched to the limit by some quality offenses this season. This will be a pretty telling January for Bo Nix as to where he is in his readiness to handle bigger challenges, but it can't all be on him playing hero ball. The second-year pro could use more help from the rest of the offense doing the little things better.

What can you say? The team that many wrote off because of injuries now is one win away from clinching a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That's a testament to what Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have built: a tough-minded team with explosive offensive potential. Even the defense, shorthanded as it might be, provided enough big plays to finish off a very good Chicago outfit on Sunday night. There might not be much margin for error, however. The 49ers really need to be this efficient offensively to run through a stout NFC field in the postseason, but it feels more possible now than it has all season. With Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey playing some of their best ball down the stretch -- and especially in this strange, unexpected season -- it's absolutely within the realm of possibilities. 

It's hard to find instances this season in which Buffalo played a relatively complete game on offense, defense and special teams. Sunday's bout against the Eagles was a near-perfect example of this, as the Bills were held scoreless for the game's first 54-plus minutes, but the defense miraculously kept them in striking range. Two touchdowns in the final two possessions made a comeback win possible, but a blocked extra point and a failed two-point conversion did Buffalo in. Was it a crushing loss? No, but it did cede the AFC East to the Patriots -- a development that was seemingly unthinkable in August -- and will force the Bills to take a longer road through the playoffs. If the defense plays this well in January, Buffalo will certainly have a shot. But the inconsistencies are semi-maddening, even and especially in a loss that came down to one missed Josh Allen throw.

All of the thrillers the Bears have been in this season -- with Chicago winning most of them -- have likely primed this team for playoff action. The Bears were one play away from beating the 49ers on the road in one of the more entertaining games of the season, and it would have been a significant win. But just like the trip to Green Bay in early December, it wasn't meant to be. Caleb Williams missed a few layups but also hit some big shots and gave the Bears a chance -- though it might be hard to face a top-tier offense such as the 49ers' and survive in the playoffs unless the defense takes a step forward. I didn't walk away from Sunday night's game discouraged about the Bears, but I suspect Chicago’s lack of athleticism on the defensive front will be its eventual undoing, with some high-powered attacks dotting the NFC playoff field. Perhaps the late-game magic will return and prove me wrong, but the Bears must get better at supplying pressure, setting better edges and finishing plays on D.

The Texans continue to fascinate as potential playoff sleepers. On Saturday, they showed some early offensive flash against the Chargers before turning the game over to be finished off by their terrific defense. It wasn't easy against Justin Herbert, who made some heroic plays to keep Los Angeles in it, but Houston found a way to win its eighth straight. When you consider that streak and the caliber of opponent that has managed to beat the Texans so far this season (Houston has fallen to potentially five playoff teams, none by more than eight points), it paints a picture of this squad's postseason potential, especially in a field that won't include Patrick Mahomes. The Texans aren't perfect, and C.J. Stroud still must be more consistent, but any measure of steadiness would make Houston a fearsome playoff matchup.

Los Angeles had all the motivation imaginable to win Monday night's game in Atlanta, coming off a tough loss in Seattle, wanting to improve the standing of the Falcons' first-round pick (owned by the Rams) and having stewed for days after seeing last week's insulting Power Rankings drop. Look, I tried to make my case for just how crushing the defeat to the Seahawks was -- with L.A. coughing up the No. 1 seed and pole position in the NFC West -- as opposed to declaring that the Rams had transformed into a pile of slugs because they couldn't stop a two-point conversion. The Power Rankings reflect both a team's inner strength and, especially at this time of year, the path it must take to reach the Super Bowl. Some of that lost value might have been baked in prior to the loss at Atlanta, so I didn't murder the Rams a second time in this pecking order, but don't think I wasn't disappointed and surprised. It now appears they could be the No. 6 seed, potentially facing a road trip to either Chicago or Philadelphia. Los Angeles also has a problem at left tackle if Alaric Jackson (knee) can't return to health, as D.J. Humphries struggled mightily on Monday. Matthew Stafford didn't have it, but the protection broke down multiple times. Suddenly, this team's trending in the wrong direction at the wrong time.

For the second time this season, the Eagles won a game in which Jalen Hurts didn't complete a pass after halftime. If that's not a testament to Vic Fangio's defense, I am not sure what is. The group was lights out for the game's first 50-plus minutes in Buffalo, and even if there was some luck involved in the late defensive stand -- with Josh Allen missing an open two-point opportunity -- you can't say too much more about the way the Eagles played on that side of the ball. That's the best thing they have going for them heading into the playoffs. Performing like the offense did in the second half -- punting five straight times -- just isn't going to cut it, however. The Eagles should have been able to increase their two-score lead at some point after halftime, but Hurts and Co. are in a complete rut. We've seen a lot of that this season -- too much for me to suddenly boost Philly into the upper tier. But in the right matchup, the Eagles absolutely can be a problem for someone. 

The fighting Chargers kept charging back from a 17-3 deficit against the Texans but couldn't finish the deal in a playoff-like atmosphere. Two early TDs from Houston hurt, as did a slew of offensive errors, including a pair of wicked drops from Oronde Gadsden II, one of which ended up as a red-zone pick. It raises the question of how much Justin Herbert can trust his rookie tight end in the postseason, even with Gadsden catching a TD pass and a long seam throw after those flubs in the comeback attempt. Two missed boots from Cameron Dicker, one of the NFL's best kickers this season, also were major head-scratchers in the loss. If the Chargers can somehow avoid matching up with a great pass-rushing team in the first round of the playoffs, they could pull off a road upset, but given the shape of the offensive line, it's hard to imagine the Bolts going on a run much longer than that.

The Packers are locked in as the seventh seed (for the third consecutive season), and they can use Week 18 to give certain players -- maybe including Jordan Love and Malik Willis -- some much-needed rest. But does this team scare anyone in the shape it is in? Not long ago, Super Bowl talk couldn't be scoffed at, but now? It's hard to envision, especially after the Ravens ran roughshod over the Packers with the ground game. There are also just too many players that won't be coming back from injuries, including Tucker Kraft and Micah Parsons. With those two and a few others on the field, they were dangerous. Now, they look like a team that could be fortunate to win a playoff game, even if it's a rematch against a Bears team they beat once and nearly beat a second time in 2025.  

The Steelers really seemed to miss WR DK Metcalf in their humbling Week 17 loss at Cleveland, setting up the loser-goes-home game against the Ravens next Sunday night. They'll be without him in that one, too, thanks to Metcalf's poorly timed two-game suspension, leaving the Steelers to find offensive answers in a pinch. They won't have to worry about a Myles Garrett-caliber force up front on the Ravens' defense, but Metcalf had nearly half of Pittsburgh's offensive yards in the Steelers' first meeting against Baltimore, a Week 14 win. 

The Ravens just keep hanging around, setting up the Week 18 battle royale against the Steelers for the AFC North title. There's more intrigue and firepower in this divisional showdown than there is in the other win-or-go-home match between the Panthers and Buccaneers. But the Ravens still face major questions heading into Pittsburgh, with Lamar Jackson's health being the biggest of the lot. It would be foolish to write the Ravens off, especially after Derrick Henry turned in a vintage performance in Saturday's win over Green Bay that could be a harbinger of things to come as we approach January. On the flip side, this Baltimore defense has plenty to clean up, and the Ravens just lost to this Steelers team a few weeks back. We're still in a holding pattern here, with this team not yet cleared for takeoff.

The NFC South has devolved into a race between two teams, Carolina and Tampa Bay, that are stumbling into this Saturday's showdown at Raymond James Stadium. Carolina edged out Tampa Bay a couple weeks ago, and in the wake of Sunday's defeat to Seattle, it's worth nothing that the Panthers have responded well from losses this season, going 6-1 in such games. They've also had some impressive road wins this season and had games where they've looked like contenders, but those are often followed by back-to-Earth outings. How do we fairly grade Bryce Young at this stage? Every time it feels like he's ascending to a new plateau, he drops down a notch or two -- and Sunday's game against a good Seahawks defense definitely brought the latter.

I know Kevin O'Connell can coach. He has logged 13- and 14-win seasons, somehow kept his 2023 team competitive with a mishmash of quarterbacks and essentially has done the same in 2025 with significant shortcomings at the game's most important position. Winning a divisional bout with 3 net passing yards is something I'd brag about at parties. At 8-8, the Vikings can finish a trying season with a winning record by beating Green Bay at home -- and the Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed, meaning they'll likely rest players on Sunday. That's why this season hasn't buried my belief in O'Connell, and I am still willing to envision a scenario where J.J. McCarthy starts putting it together next year. We'll see if another team tries to poach Brian Flores for a head-coaching opening, and Harrison Smith could retire, but I suspect this is still a team that can compete in 2026.

The Lions' playoff chase ended with a thud, even if the writing had been on the wall. Still, for a Dan Campbell team to go out as meekly as this group did on Christmas Day was eye-opening. Flawed as Detroit was coming in, this was not a team that killed itself with turnovers. Jared Goff just looked spooked after the first few giveaways against the Vikings, and it spiraled into an unrecognizable ugly for him and the Lions, with a half-dozen turnovers by game's end. What did we watch? Losing to a QB who didn't complete a pass longer than 10 yards only made it more painful. Everything since the playoff loss to Washington has been disappointing and just so labored, as if the Lions felt the crush of the sky-high expectations they'd earned while going against a darned-tough schedule. I won't count this group out, but it's going to take some inspired work from Campbell and Brad Holmes in order to get back to those dizzying heights again.

Despite losing seven of the past eight games, the Buccaneers will host the Panthers on Saturday for the potential right to host a playoff game in the following week. (I underscore "potential," because the Bucs need to win on Saturday and have the Falcons lose on Sunday in order for Tampa Bay to take the division title.) It might not seem right, but it is what it is. And in spite of the terrible, no-good results since the Bucs' Week 9 bye, everything still could be in front of them. Of course, by "everything," I mean a chance to be a home underdog to a strong NFC West foe on Wild Card Weekend. But looking at Tampa Bay's output over the past couple months, it's hard to have much confidence in Todd Bowles' team, with all three phases suffering. On Sunday, Baker Mayfield had three turnovers, the defense was eaten up early by a seventh-round rookie, and the special teams came unglued a few times. This has felt like a slow death march to Week 18, and Sunday got the Bucs onto the plank.

Philip Rivers deserves commendation for coming in cold and providing a steadying force for the Colts. But they also lost his first three starts, and Sunday was probably his toughest outing of this mini-revival, with the QB seemingly running out of gas after halftime. Though the Colts surely don't regret at all bringing Rivers in as a last-gasp dart throw, it also makes sense to use the season finale vs. Houston to evaluate rookie Riley Leonard for next year. Lacking a first-round pick (thanks to the trade for Sauce Gardner) and facing questions about their QB future, with Daniel Jones in the early stages of his rehab (and headed for free agency), the Colts are in a very delicate situation. Yes, we all saw how well that offense hummed early on, and that absolutely could happen again, but it's hard not to have some doubt, too, especially with that void in their draft coffers for 2026.

The Cowboys have a chance to finish 8-8-1, which certainly sounds better than 7-9-1 (or 7-8-2, yuck). That would give slightly more credence to the idea that Dallas can be a double-digit-win team next season under the right circumstances. Brian Schottenheimer wasn't a lot of folks' first choice as head coach, and it has definitely been a yo-yo season with plenty of twists and turns, but finishing above .500 with this defense would be pretty encouraging on the whole. Dak Prescott's window has closed ever so slightly, but he's still playing high-level football -- and if the 'Boys can keep George Pickens, this offense could reach new heights. Can Dallas rebuild the unit on the other side of the ball, though? That's the question I am left with. This hasn't been the most daring springtime team in recent years.

I was watching on Monday night as the Falcons took a 21-zip lead over the Rams, thinking, This team was four-and-freakin'-nine in early December? As Atlanta started blowing the game in the most Falcons way possible, I regained some perspective on the matter. But credit Raheem Morris for having his team prepared and being able to finish it off, even with a few skipped beats. It had to be sweet for Morris to help his cause by beating his old boss and a good Los Angeles team, with Atlanta able to dictate play on both sides of the ball in the first half. But the bottom line remains: This team, even as beat up as it is, is just too talented to have another crummy season. This year's draft class is a hit, and the Falcons have some established stars on both sides of the ball. The 2026 season is going to be a fascinating one for Atlanta. Bijan Robinson is a legitimate superstar, and I sure hope he gets to anchor a playoff team one day.

It feels like the past two games have helped ease the pain of missing the playoffs, as the offense has unloaded on its opponents with a barrage of fireworks. Joe Burrow is back to throwing dimes, Chase Brown keeps stacking productive games and even 345-pound Cody Ford is out there logging 21-yard catch-and-runs (16 YAC!). That's the version of the Bengals we all know and love. It appears Zac Taylor -- who seems likely to stick around for a while yet -- is effectively doing everything he can to prime Burrow and the big guns for a return to prominence next season. That renewed competitiveness won't be automatic or assumed, and the Ravens debacle wasn't that long ago, but it's a pretty good sign for this team's health that the Bengals are playing freely and effectively in another lost season.

After sleeping through the first half offensively, the Saints turned on the afterburners in the comeback win -- their fourth straight victory, putting a bow on what had been a tough season. Granted, it came against a beleaguered Titans defense, but what Tyler Shough has done has paved the way for him to be New Orleans' 2026 starter. Shough completed 12 of 16 passes for 251 yards and two TDs after halftime, and he did so without relying on his scrambling as much as we had seen in recent games. He and Kellen Moore appear to be in a groove right now, setting up the Saints as a potential future contender in an NFC South that doesn't have a clear favorite right now. Also, it hasn't been talked about a lot, but how good has Chase Young been? He's shaping up to be one of the team's best signings in recent years.

It's anyone's guess who'll be starting at QB for the Dolphins in 2026, but Quinn Ewers is at least giving them something to think about. No, he won't be the favorite, and he might not even get to compete for a job, depending on who is in and who is out at the position. But the seventh-round rookie has made Mike McDaniel look smarter for giving him a shot after a very respectable effort against the Buccaneers. Facing a team that was desperate to win a game, Ewers registered a terrific first half and played turnover-free ball in the upset victory. He also had help from some other unheralded Dolphins rookies (Theo Wease Jr., Zeek Biggers and Jason Marshall Jr.) who played well and similarly helped their 2026 causes. Too little, too late, but Miami has looked pretty solid in the second half of the season.

If that was Travis Kelce's home farewell, he gave Arrowhead denizens a few moments early and late in the competitive loss to Denver. It wasn't the Super Bowl send-off the Chiefs had hoped for, but it will have to do if he is indeed done after this season. Kansas City would face identity questions this offseason without him -- and with Patrick Mahomes rehabbing a major knee injury -- but it could be good for this franchise to build its infrastructure a bit more and learn how to win in new ways. Andy Reid says he'll be back in 2026, and Mahomes eventually will be, too, but it's no certainty that the Chiefs will have anything close to the same firepower they once did.

After winning 12 regular-season games last year, the Commanders have already lost 12 in 2025. I don't think Dan Quinn should be feeling the heat about his job, but it certainly changes the perspective for 2026. Can Washington afford another poor season? I was happy to see Jer'Zhan Newton's breakout game in the loss to Dallas, but Washington's defense needs an extreme makeover this coming offseason, which begs the question of why more wasn't done to help that unit this past offseason. There are still encouraging elements regarding the health of the organization, but the draft till has been drained via trades with a win-now mentality. It backfired, but now the Commanders must find reasonable approaches to being competitive next season. 

The Browns enjoyed playing the role of spoilers, even if they let the Ravens know on socials that this was no favor to their hated divisional rivals. It was another sub-17-point performance on offense, but the defense rose to the challenge and stunted the Steelers -- though Myles Garrett was unable to break the sack record, seemingly facing a crowd of blockers on most pass plays. The loss hurt the Browns' draft outlook and could keep them out of range for a quarterback, although they have the picks to move up if they so desire. Where Cleveland goes at that position in the offseason will be fascinating, especially with Shedeur Sanders doing enough good things to suggest he could be part of the solution. Then again, when it comes to the Browns, it's anyone's guess as to how it'll all unfold.

Cam Ward's high notes have been pretty strong this season, even if they've been noticeably outnumbered by the lower ones. He threw some big-time passes in the loss to the Saints, and there has been a tangible uptick in his play recently -- that's four straight games with two TD passes. Even still, Tennessee's next head coach will have to sell himself on making Ward a more consistent player in Year 2, assuming the Titans can provide him with more help on both sides of the ball. Some of the weapons appear to be in place, but they'll need better blocking and a more efficient offensive system to coax greatness out of Ward. 

The misery continued Sunday with the Cardinals' eighth straight loss (and 13th in 14 games). It's not often you see a 2-0 start to the season so thoroughly flushed away, but here we are. What it means for Jonathan Gannon is yet to be determined, but two things are certain: This was Arizona's fifth double-digit blowout since the Week 8 bye and yet another game where the defense was taken to the woodshed. Defense is Gannon's supposed calling card, and yet that unit -- in spite of many big additions in the past few seasons -- has been a major disappointment, especially down the stretch. Even accounting for the impact of injuries, it seems clear something must change drastically on that side of the ball. There's also the looming Kyler Murray situation, setting up a pretty significant offseason in Glendale.

I know some fans will be upset that the Giants didn't lose Sunday in Las Vegas and secure the No. 1 draft pick, but ending a nine-game losing streak (and a 13-game skid on the road) isn't a bad consolation prize. Sure, it would have been nice to get the top pick and sell it to a team such as the Raiders or Jets for QB ransom, but the Giants will end up with one of the best non-quarterbacks, and they can probably go into the spring feeling good that Jaxson Dart might have been QB1 had he been in this coming draft class. We first need to see who stays and who goes, but there's at least a foundation in place -- if you believe Dart is The Guy -- for a new coach to be competitive next season. Can Dart stay healthy and get better? Those are legit questions.

There are only so many consolation prizes during this time of year for teams at or near the bottom, but Sunday was miserable in nearly all aspects for the Jets. They were absolutely undressed defensively (and yes, the INT-less streak remains!) and not functional offensively while the Patriots were building a massive first-half lead. Worse yet, they were pretty lifeless to start the game. The one standout, of course, was Breece Hall, who ripped off a 59-yard touchdown and averaged almost 8 yards per carry. In doing so, he surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark, becoming the first Jets player to do so in a decade -- one of the few highlights of another poor season. After not dealing Hall in an active trade deadline for the franchise, the Jets are almost forced to meet the running back's contract demands this spring. They'll have a laundry list of needs beyond that, too.

Geno Smith was crushed after throwing his second interception on Sunday, replaced by Kenny Pickett, and it's at least possible that's the last we see of the 35-year-old quarterback in Las Vegas. The Geno experiment just hasn't worked out as hoped, with the 34-10 loss to the Giants raising his INT total to a league-worst 17 and moving the Raiders into the driver's seat for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Whether that pick lands Vegas the passer of the future or not remains to be seen, but it's clear that could be one of several major changes to occur. We need to see what Pete Carroll's future is, and then there's the whole Maxx Crosby situation. Once again, the Raiders are a near-teardown, and it's no guarantee they'll do enough in the offseason to be competitive.