NFL Week 1 picks: Chiefs beat Chargers in Brazil; Ravens top Bills on 'SNF'

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 1 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of noon ET on Thursday, Sept. 4.

FRIDAY, SEPT. 5

Why Dan picked the Chiefs: These teams played tight, low-scoring games both times they met last season, with the Chiefs coming out on top in each contest. I'm expecting them to stick to the same script and deliver the same outcome in Brazil. I know Kansas City wants to get back to taking the top off opposing defenses, but it's about to run into a team that ranked second in yards allowed per pass attempt and first in scoring defense last season. Unless Jesse Minter's unit has fallen off more than I think it has, Patrick Mahomes is likely to find himself in the familiar place of settling for a lot of underneath throws. If rookie RB Omarion Hampton starts picking up yards in chunks for the Chargers and the Chiefs' remodeled offensive line isn't ready for prime time, this contest could easily swing in Jim Harbaugh's direction, but my gut tells me Andy Reid's crew is a bit better equipped to win on a big stage in Week 1.

SUNDAY, SEPT. 7

Why Gennaro picked the Buccaneers: Tampa native Michael Penix Jr. begins his first season as Atlanta's full-time starter with a rivalry bout against his hometown team. Unfortunately, the southpaw slinger must play without his blind-side protector, as right tackle Kaleb McGary suffered a season-ending leg injury in the Falcons' final practice of training camp. Tough. But Penix gets no sympathy from quarterbacking counterpart Baker Mayfield, who has a huge blocking concern looming over his own shoulder. First-team All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs isn't done for the season, fortunately, but he's expected to miss the early goings following summer surgery on his knee. So, in a divisional showdown featuring potent offensive playmakers on both sides, which defensive front is better positioned to exploit a diminished blind side? Well, Atlanta attempted to address an eternal edge-rushing issue in Round 1 of April's draft, but I have to see Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. wrecking shop in real games before I'm convinced they're the solution to this team's pressure problem. Conversely, Tampa Bay has finished top 10 in sacks in each of its three seasons under blitz-happy coach Todd Bowles. And this could be Bowles' most disruptive front yet, particularly if the Buccaneers get continued growth from third-year pros Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby and a resurgent effort from two-time Pro Bowler Haason Reddick. In a game that could feature fireworks from both offenses, Tampa's D wreaks enough havoc to get the road win.

Why Brooke picked the Bengals: The Bengals have been notorious for slow starts -- 1-11 in Weeks 1-2 since 2019, in fact. Remember last year's Week 1 egg? I'm really trying to be optimistic after the front office rightfully invested in its stars this offseason and Joe Burrow got his feet wet in August. The Browns have always been this weird mountain for Burrow to conquer -- he's 3-5 against them in his career -- but the band is back together and the vibes are high. Give them the advantage on paper over Cleveland's defense, which has good pieces but routinely gave up way too many points in 2024. The other big question here: Did Cincinnati do enough to improve a defense that gave up 25.5 points per game in 2024? Working out a deal with Trey Hendrickson was a start, but the jury is still out. The first test is a Browns offense led by 40-year-old Joe Flacco. The Bengals should pass it.

Why Ali picked the Colts: For two teams coming off 8-9 campaigns, neither the Colts nor the Dolphins had offseasons befitting teams on the rise. Miami battled perceptions about its toughness, leadership and depleted DB group, while Indy embarked on a punchless QB competition that concluded with newcomer Daniel Jones, not former No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson, earning the starting job. The uncertainty swirling over both teams clouds the forecast on Sunday. Mike McDaniel's track record in season-openers (3-0) suggests an edge over Shane Steichen (0-2), but while that's a fun stat, I suspect it'll be less influential on the final outcome than the Fins' revamped front seven. Can the unit, which will debut first-rounder Kenneth Grant and return both Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb (significant injuries), make the Colts one-dimensional and mitigate Miami's suspect secondary? Maybe. But as encouraging as the unit sounds on paper, and may end up eventually being on the field, I'll need to see it to believe it. So, for consistency’s sake, I'm leaning toward the veteran-led home team in this clash of question marks.

Why Tom picked the Jaguars: These franchises have faced each other eight times in their 30 seasons of existence, splitting the series right down the middle, 4-4. That feels like a perfect reflection of where Carolina and Jacksonville stand entering 2025, trying to convert good and/or improved vibes into consistent on-field success. I am tempted to pick the Panthers to build on their momentum from last season, in no small part because Dave Canales and Bryce Young know each other better at this point than Trevor Lawrence and first-year Jags head coach Liam Coen do. I also am leery of where Lawrence is at on his developmental trajectory; stardom and mediocrity seem equally plausible. Then again, we've seen Lawrence and other core pieces -- like Brian Thomas Jr. and Josh Hines-Allen -- prove they can play like stars, and not just likable cellar-dwellers, a benchmark few in Carolina have reached. With both defenses coming off a disastrous 2024, the first offense to jell on Sunday could end up in the driver's seat, and I'm choosing to trust that Coen and Lawrence will have enough cooked up -- with some extra juice from Travis Hunter? -- for Lawrence to snag the second season-opening win of his career.

Why Gennaro picked the Patriots: Fascination abounds with both offenses in this matchup. The Patriots significantly upgraded Drake Maye's supporting cast during the offseason, while the Raiders remodeled their Brock Bowers-led attack by adding a plus quarterback in Geno Smith and a bell-cow back in Ashton Jeanty. Yet, despite all that, I think this game will be decided by defense -- specifically, New England's defense. With Mike Vrabel taking over as head coach, the Patriots aggressively fortified all three levels of the D by signing four new starters in free agency: DT Milton Williams, OLB Harold Landry III, ILB Robert Spillane and CB Carlton Davis III. Furthermore, interior disruptor Christian Barmore is back in the fold after missing most of last season due to blood clot issues. All in all, this defense has the makings of a group that could fly up the rankings in 2025. In Las Vegas, though, new coach Pete Carroll has his work cut out for him on the defensive side of the ball. Maxx Crosby's a one-man army, to be sure, but the rest of the unit looked extremely underwhelming before the shocking release of Christian Wilkins. With Vrabel and Carroll right at home in a low-scoring slobberknocker, New England gets just enough plays from new toys like TreVeyon Henderson to eke out a hard-fought win.

Why Ali picked the Cardinals: Save for the location of Sunday's game, most of the consequential factors worth considering in a Week 1 matchup -- QB, coaching continuity, vibes -- favor Arizona. While the Saints turn to Spencer Rattler, a relatively untested second-year player with more career losses (0-6) than touchdown passes (4), the Cardinals will feature two-time Pro Bowler Kyler Murray. Not quite a fair fight. But the Saints still boast a bevy of longstanding franchise stalwarts who aren't about to roll over. Being such significant underdogs at the Superdome can't sit well with the likes of Demario Davis, Cam Jordan, Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave, all of whom I'm sure would love to stun the football world like the Patriots did at Cincinnati last opening weekend. But I just don't see it here -- especially with Arizona having so much to prove this season. This is a gotta-have-it game for third-year coach Jonathan Gannon, who's still searching for his first winning record in the desert.

Why Dan picked the Steelers: If you like seeing teams score points, I do not have the game for you here. But if you're in the mood for a defensive battle with juicy quarterback storylines, you have come to the right place. As you might have heard, the Week 1 starters at QB from last season for the Jets and Steelers have switched sides, with Aaron Rodgers joining Pittsburgh for one last run and New York embracing Justin Fields in his third stop in as many years. Unfortunately for Fields, he just lost his best offensive lineman, guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, to a torn triceps. Scrambling to figure out who's going to block T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Cam Heyward a few days before the season opens seems like a recipe for trouble. So, I give a slight edge to the Steelers in a contest that might be unpleasant to watch, but I certainly don't have good reason to believe everything is going to click immediately for the Rodgers-led offense.

Why Tom picked the Commanders: I believe the Russell Wilson Effect -- or, rather, the Not Pinning Your Hopes on Daniel Jones Anymore Effect -- will be real, giving the Giants' offense a solid-ish floor for the first time in a long time. And let's not forget the defense added the top non-QB/non-generational-anomaly drafted this year. With Abdul Carter joining Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence, the pass rush should at the very least keep Jayden Daniels and Washington's upgraded O-line on their toes. Though this fact might be obscured by the Commanders' vastly superior 2024 record, these teams played each other close last year, with both games falling into Washington's pile of one-score wins. Based on the fortifications made to each roster, I think they'll scrap till the end again, giving a little early-season juice to the Giants' case for leveling up to the NFL's middle tier -- a possibility I am beginning to cautiously buy in on. I am not ready, however, to assume Daniels will fall closer to Earth. Some regression would be understandable, sure, but so far, he's made a career of blowing past expectations. I will not start doubting him in Week 1 of Year 2.

Why Tom picked the Broncos: Here is something I wrote around this time last year as part of my very comfortable, very confident prediction that Cincinnati would beat New England:

"Week 1 shockers happen, of course …"

I then proceeded to explain why the Bengals were still a near-lock anyway, when what I should have written was something like:

"... and this will be one of them, duh."

Are Cam Ward and the Titans about to make me look as wrong as New England did 12 months ago? I kind of hope so. It's always great when a young QB instantly jolts some life into a wayward franchise. Unfortunately for Ward, the Broncos' defense looks like a potential league-wrecker. Tennessee's reinforced O-line might keep Denver's front at bay, but only for so long -- and Ward will still have to figure out, in his first professional regular-season game, how to move the ball against Patrick Surtain II and Co., who held opponents to 4.9 yards per play in 2024, the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Even more unfortunately for Ward, all that earlier hedging and couching about the possibility of a Titans upset basically guarantees it won't happen.

Why Ali picked the 49ers: The Seahawks' defense is stacked from top to bottom, with a fierce front seven complemented by a talented, hard-hitting secondary. That group will be a lot to handle for a Niners offense still hurting at receiver. Seattle's offense, however, doesn't elicit nearly as much confidence. Are the 'Hawks getting the 14-win Sam Darnold from 2024 or the version that amassed 17 total wins in his five previous seasons combined? How will the eighth-year signal-caller mesh with fellow newcomers Tory Horton and Cooper Kupp in the passing game? Will it even matter, if rookie first-rounder Grey Zabel and the O-line can't consistently provide their QB with a clean pocket? We know Super Sam can become super rattled under intense pressure, and if we know it, so does new (but familiar) 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. A lot could fall on Nick Bosa's shoulders on Sunday, but if he can get in Darnold's head, I think the Niners will get out of Seattle with a huge division win.

Why Brooke picked the Lions: The Packers have dominated recent headlines after a monumental trade brought Micah Parsons to Wisconsin, and it appears the four-time Pro Bowler may play Sunday despite dealing with a back injury, which would no doubt send Cheeseheads into euphoria. I believe Parsons will make a big impact on Green Bay's defense this season -- it just might not be Sunday. I mean, he's only been with the team for literal days. Offensively, there's a lot to like about the Packers -- looking at you, Josh Jacobs and Matt LaFleur (one of the NFL's elite play-callers) -- but Jordan Love still gives me pause, especially early in the season. Love has a 7-9 record, 59.8 completion percentage, 29:20 TD-to-INT ratio and 83.9 passer rating in Weeks 1-10 since 2023. He'll face a strong Lions defense led by a hungry Aidan Hutchinson right out of the gate.

To be honest, I've gone back and forth on this contest a million times. I know this game is at Lambeau Field, and that Detroit is rolling with two new coordinators, but I just have this gut feeling that I am sleeping on the Lions. After being the darlings of the 2024 offseason, it's been awfully quiet over there the last six months. Dan Campbell's team has had its head down prepping for REVENGE SZN, and it begins with a fourth straight victory at Lambeau.

Why Dan picked the Rams: What's the best way to survive an encounter with a ferocious pass rush? By countering it with a strong running game, I say. For that reason, I'm picking the Rams in a tough game to predict. The Rams have their share of question marks, starting with Matthew Stafford's back issue, but I'm at least confident they know who their RB1 is -- after all, they just paid Kyren Williams top-10 RB money. I can't say the same thing for the Texans right now with Joe Mixon sidelined, which is concerning. Is a declining Nick Chubb their guy? Former trade bait Dameon Pierce? Rookie fourth-round pick Woody Marks? C.J. Stroud is 19-13 as an NFL starter, but he's 4-8 when the Texans are held to 81 yards rushing or less. He's proven he can win games even when the ground game isn't much help -- albeit infrequently -- but the Rams have a defense that will make life very hard for him if he's consistently facing second- or third-and-long situations. Mixon's absence looms large.

Why Brooke picked the Ravens: The schedule-makers graciously gifted us this honey of a game in Week 1. The top two MVP candidates from last season are the obvious headliners, as Josh Allen (85) and Lamar Jackson (74) rank first and second in offensive TDs over the last two seasons. It's not all about them, though. These offenses are littered with talented playmakers, including Pro Bowlers Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and James Cook, as well as ascending slot machine Khalil Shakir. Not to mention, both lines are extremely stout. So which defense is better equipped to stall those elite units? Buffalo is solid (keep an eye on CB Tre'Davious White's injury status), but the answer is Baltimore. Zach Orr's defense was one of the best in the league down the stretch last season and has historically had Allen's number in the regular season. The reigning MVP's 67.7 career regular-season passer rating against the Ravens is his worst among the 14 opponents he has face at least three times, per NFL Research. Matchups between league goliaths come down to the details, and Baltimore owns that slight edge despite what happened in January. This isn't about the Ravens getting revenge for that playoff loss -- it's about them boasting perhaps the best roster in the NFL.

MONDAY, SEPT 8

Why Gennaro picked the Bears: Heading into the 2025 season, is there a more polarizing player in the entire league than Caleb Williams? Interestingly, last year, he wasn't even the most polarizing quarterback in his own draft cycle. J.J. McCarthy held that distinction, with skeptics degrading his role in Michigan's offense and supporters praising his winning pedigree. Upon arrival in Minnesota, McCarthy promptly turned heads with a flashy preseason debut … but it turned out he suffered a meniscus tear in the game, ending his rookie campaign before it truly started. Meanwhile, Williams helped lead Chicago to a 4-2 start … but then the Bears completely fell apart, emboldening Caleb critics to fully let their hate flags fly. Was his season an utter failure? No, he finished with decent Year 1 stats in a number of categories, showcasing enticing tools in spurts. That said, he just held on to the ball too damn long, allowing defenders (and detractors) to tee off on the ballyhooed No. 1 overall pick. With all of that in mind, it feels quite fitting for these two lightning rods to close the season's opening week on national television. Who will prevail? Whatever the outcome, the takes undoubtedly will be HOT. Ain't nobody maintaining proper perspective with these two. But with one of them making his true NFL debut on the road against a division rival in the Monday night spotlight, I'll take the home 'dog with 17 pro starts under his belt.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Tom picked the Eagles: The last time Dak Prescott saw the Eagles, in December of 2023, he blew them out, coasting to a 33-13 laugher. Some stuff has, shall we say, happened since then, and if I were to predict an easy Dallas win to kick off the season today, that would also be a laugher, in the sense that everyone would laugh at me. Prescott's presence alone should make this a much more even matchup than it was at any point last season, when Philly held a 75-13 scoring advantage in the series. And OK, sure, Kenny Clark probably really will strengthen the Cowboys' run defense, which would be key to potentially beating the Eagles. But it's just one key. There are several others, like holding off Jalen Carter and Vic Fangio's own potent defense, or finding a way to make Jalen Hurts and the passing attack sufficiently uncomfortable despite, you know, having traded away one of the NFL's premier QB hunters seven days ago. All due respect to Clark, but there is a reason the deal that brought him to town is referred to as "The Micah Parsons Trade," and an evening against the stacked defending champs is unlikely to change any minds on that.

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