NFL picks for all 16 Week 4 games: Seahawks vs. Cardinals prediction unanimous

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 4 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 25.

THURSDAY, SEPT. 25

Why Brooke picked the Seahawks: Last week in this space, I asked the question: Are the Cardinals even good? I'm not confident they are. They fell to the injury-stricken 49ers after once again failing to post 300 total yards of offense. It won't get easier this week, with James Conner out for the season and Kyler Murray aiming to get on the same page as his pass catchers (Marvin Harrison Jr.?) while facing a defense that generates pressure at the fourth-highest rate (44.3 percent) and has not allowed an opponent to score more than 17 points this season. Seattle has all the momentum coming into Thursday night, winning back-to-back games and being the only team in the league to rank in the top five in both scoring offense and defense. Sam Darnold has settled in nicely with his new team, quickly building a rapport with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and rookie Tory Horton to lead an efficient passing attack that ranks 12th in yards despite being tied for 29th in attempts. I know these teams have the same record, but Seattle looks like the much better group in all three phases. Plus, Mike Macdonald's road warriors are 8-1 in games outside of Seattle since 2024.

SUNDAY, SEPT. 28

Why Dan picked the Vikings: As the Falcons showed back in Week 2, a good way to beat the Vikings is by running the ball down their throats. Surely, Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Arthur Smith -- with a reputation for being one of the league's best run-game designers -- can whip up a plan to seize on Atlanta's blueprint, right? Well, I'm not so sure. The Steelers rank second-to-last in rushing yards per game (63) and are averaging a measly 2.8 yards per carry. Against a neutral box (seven defenders), they are averaging just 2.3 ypc, per Next Gen Stats. If the Steelers don't break from that trend on their trip to the Emerald Isle, it's hard to imagine the luck of the Irish smiling upon them. A similarly run-game-challenged Bengals team was no match for Brian Flores' defense last week. On the other hand, if Mike Tomlin's defense continues to take the ball away at a high rate, the turnovers can mask some of the deficiencies, especially with the Vikings once again starting backup QB Carson Wentz, who hasn't been asked to make plays in a tight, meaningful game in a few years.

Why Gennaro picked the Falcons: The most obvious question: Is Jayden Daniels playing in this game?

After missing last week's 41-24 win over the Raiders with a sprained knee, the dynamic playmaker was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. While it seems like there's a decent chance Jayden returns to action on Sunday, that's really not for me to say -- especially if the quarterback himself is unwilling to speculate: "It's up to the doctors," Daniels said. "Not my decision." Could Marcus Mariota's exemplary spot start influence that decision? Perhaps. But again, I don't have these answers. Which leads us to …

The most interesting question: What are the Falcons?

In Week 1, they barely lost to the back-to-back-to-back-to-back NFC South champion Bucs. In Week 2, they completely overwhelmed J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings. And then, this past Sunday, they were absolutely blown off the field by the Panthers. Michael Penix Jr. was benched; it was bad. So, what's in store for Week 4? It's important to note that Washington's health issues go beyond Daniels. If Terry McLaurin (quad) is unable to go, that helps a Falcons secondary that'll likely be missing CB1 A.J. Terrell (hamstring) for a second straight game. And while the Commanders' defense looks pretty good on paper, I think the stats are inflated by lackluster offensive competition in two of the first three weeks. With Atlanta's early bye on tap right after this game, Raheem Morris rallies the troops, gets the response he’s anticipating from Penix and denies Dan Quinn the satisfaction of beating his old team.

Why Ali picked the Bills: Simply put, a Saints win in Buffalo on Sunday would amount to one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. The Bills have the edge -- in most cases, a significant one -- in nearly every area. Don't believe me? Just look at all of Buffalo's four- and five-star advantages in NFL Pro’s matchup breakdown. But it's not all doom and gloom for New Orleans. The advanced metrics reveal two potential ways for the Saints to keep things interesting at Highmark Stadium. First, the Bills' defense ranks among the league's worst at stopping the pass while blitzing. Unfortunately for New Orleans, though, Buffalo blitzes at one of the lowest rates in the league. So, maybe scratch that one. Second, the Bills have allowed the most touchdowns (three-way tie) and the seventh-highest passer rating on quick throws this season. Similarly, though, that sample size is small, with Buffalo seeing the fourth-fewest total quick attempts through Week 3, per Next Gen Stats. Can Spencer Rattler repeatedly dink and dunk New Orleans down the field for six? I could see it happen once ... maybe even twice. But it seems unfair to ask the second-year QB, who's still seeking his first NFL win (0-9), to keep pace with reigning MVP Josh Allen for 60 minutes.

Why Tom picked the Lions: The Browns appear to have one part of the formula for winning NFL games -- stopping the other guys -- on lock, with Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward and a souped-up line clamping down on basically anyone who tries to throw (147 passing yards allowed per game, fourth-best in the league entering Week 4) or run (league-best 57.3 rushing yards allowed per game) against them. It's the other part -- moving the ball themselves -- that they can't quite figure out, averaging just 4.4 yards per play (tied for 27th). So let's say they slow the Lions, which is a plausible scenario, with Detroit coming off a short week and having managed just 13 points the last time they faced a defense in Cleveland's echelon (Week 1 vs. the Packers). What are the Browns going to do then? Unless they can somehow actually shut Jared Goff and Co. out completely, they'll probably need to start pulling off their miraculous blocked kicks a little earlier than the final 30 seconds if they want a chance in this one.

Why Brooke picked the Texans: There hasn't been a lot to get excited about with these teams through three games. Tennessee's Cam Ward has taken an NFL-high 15 sacks and averaged just 5.1 pass yards per attempt, while the Titans' offense as a whole is averaging a league-low 3.6 yards per play. The Texans have produced just four red-zone drives in 2025 and failed to score a single touchdown in those trips. There are a few bright spots defensively, though: Tennessee is tied for fourth in takeaways (five), and Houston boasts a top-five scoring defense (17.0 ppg). Both teams have made some changes this week in the hopes that those moves will help get them in the win column: Brian Callahan is taking a step back and has handed play-calling duties to QBs coach Bo Hardegree, while Houston surprisingly cut veteran safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. The Texans' secondary could also be without star cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (oblique). Still, this talented Houston squad feels overdue for a win, and Sunday presents the golden opportunity of a divisional home game against a rebuilding foe.

Why Dan picked the Patriots: I'm looking for a team to trust here and I don't like my options. Maybe the Panthers have turned a corner after bouncing back from a rough start to shut out the Falcons last week. And perhaps the Patriots are a mess, with little ability to get out of their own way when it comes to turning the ball over and committing penalties. I'm going to guess the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and it could make for a tight game. Mike Vrabel should have his team highly motivated to avoid the 0-3 start at home and prove last week’s ugliness was a fluke. There seems to be optimism that Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez -- a second-team All-Pro last season -- will make his 2025 debut after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury. If he can limit the impact of Panthers rookie standout Tetairoa McMillan -- who ranks sixth in the league in receiving yards share (35.8%, per NGS) -- Carolina is going to have a hard time gaining much traction through the air. Bryce Young has still won only one road game in 15 tries as a starter.

Why Gennaro picked the Chargers: Peppered with questions on Wednesday about his decision to make the switch from Russell Wilson to Jaxson Dart, Brian Daboll provided a frank admission.

"I don't think any rookie quarterback is ever just ready to play," the Giants head coach said. "You put him in there because you think that he's done enough to show you that he can go out there and compete, and he's done that every step of the way."

It's fair -- he's managing expectations. But if Daboll were more inclined to say the quiet part out loud, he'd point to the team's 0-3 record and harken back to his boss' mandate for improvement: "It better not take too long," Mara publicly stated in January, "because I've just about run out of patience." But I digress. What does this move mean for this particular game? As Daboll alluded to, every signal-caller's starting debut is a trial by fire. Unfortunately, this could be a five-alarm fire. Forget the fact that Jim Harbaugh is 8-2 against rookie quarterbacks over the course of his career. In the here and now, the Chargers coach has an MVP candidate and a suffocating defense. Seeing how the Bolts just opened the season with three straight division games wins, I'm sensing a slow-cooked road victory.

Why Tom picked the Eagles: It pained me to do so -- typically, I will make as many mental leaps as necessary to pick on the side of Baker Mayfield. There is one gaping chasm I can't bring myself to try jumping, though: the absence of multiple load-bearing members of his supporting cast. Mayfield's worked some magic in each of the Bucs' wins so far, but beating Vic Fangio, Jalen Carter and the rest of the Eagles' defense without Luke Goedeke, Cody Mauch and Mike Evans would be some real CGI-enhanced Now You See Me-type stuff, even with Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin potentially coming back and the Emeka Egbuka connection looking like a sure thing. And don't forget Philly just pulled off its own Baker-esque comeback to shock the Rams. Ahead of this exact same matchup at this exact point last season, I sensibly picked the Eagles' more talented roster over the potential for Baker razzle-dazzle -- and, of course, the Bucs coasted to an easy win. One key difference: In Week 4 of 2024, the Bucs were the healthier team. I will not make the same mistake (downplaying key injuries) again, even as I, uh, potentially make the same mistake (picking Philly to win in Tampa) again.

Why Ali picked the Rams: If you think Indianapolis' surprising start is a fluke, simply the result of a favorable early schedule, you're severely short-changing Shane Steichen and Co. Sure, their opponents have gone a combined 1-8 thus far, but it's less about what the opposition has done poorly and more about what Indy has done really well. The Colts are extremely effective on the ground, efficient through the air and play complementary defense. On Sunday, they'll face their toughest test thus far in a Rams team that also seemingly does everything well (except convert fourth-quarter field goals). I think this will be a tight ballgame that ultimately comes down to two factors:

1. For the Rams: How will they fare against the Colts' league-leading production out of 12 personnel (7.8 yards per play). Can they stop Indy's two-TE looks consistently? Will they still deploy extra DBs like they prefer to, or will they mix up tendencies with the intent on stopping Jonathan Taylor?
2. For the Colts: How will their run defense hold up against one of the league's most consistent rushing attacks? Can they contain the Rams' ground game without leaving themselves vulnerable to chunk gains off play-action?

I think the Rams have the talent up front to mitigate Taylor (enough, at least) and force Daniel Jones to beat them. And, as well as the polarizing signal-caller has played this season, I'm not confident he'll be able to pull off what Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts did last weekend.

Why Brooke picked the 49ers: The 49ers can't shake the injury bug, and it sucks. This team is 3-0 and has yet to be at full strength. It's a Super Bowl contender when its stars are healthy. And though it's not that right now, I feel like I can still expect to see an efficient Kyle Shanahan-led offense and a ruthless defensive effort from Robert Saleh's group that will keep San Francisco competitive in most games. There are bigger questions around the Jaguars, a talented jamboree that has yet to get everyone on the same page in the same game. The defense has set the tone for this team so far, ranking first in the NFL in takeaways (nine), fifth in points allowed and 10th in yards. The offense, on the other hand, has been far too inconsistent. Trevor Lawrence hasn't cleaned up his turnovers and has struggled in the second half of games this season, posting a 56.1 passer rating and completing just 50 percent of his passes in the third and fourth quarters (both worst in the NFL). Brian Thomas Jr. has caught just 28 percent of his 25 targets, and Travis Hunter has underwhelmed -- though head coach Liam Coen told reporters they are working to put the rookie in better positions to become more productive on Sundays. Right now, in terms of the overall health of these teams, the ceiling might be higher for Jacksonville, but can it avoid costly mistakes? It's hard to say yes at this point in time.

Why Gennaro picked the Ravens: It's crazy to think that one of these teams will head into next week at 1-3. It's even crazier to think it'll be the one that's played in five of the past six Super Bowls. And yet, that's the prediction here. Why? Because Kansas City has yet to deliver on its offseason promise of an aerial renaissance. Remember all that talk of stretching the field and loosening up opposing defenses? Through three games, this offense appears more constipated than before. Granted, the Chiefs have been missing their two most potent weapons -- Xavier Worthy suffered a shoulder injury on the first drive of the season, while Rashee Rice is serving a six-game suspension -- but it's still hard to watch Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes labor to reach 20 points. Even if Worthy returns to the lineup on Sunday, will his presence immediately flip the switch on this attack? Color me skeptical. The offense's problems run deep, starting with a run game that's completely devoid of juice. With Isiah Pacheco (3.7 yards per carry) and Kareem Hunt (3.5 ypc) past their prime, K.C. doesn't have the horses to gash Baltimore on the ground like Detroit did on Monday night. The Chiefs, as presently constituted, simply lack the firepower to keep up with the league's top scoring offense.

Why Tom picked the Bears: Last week, Ben Johnson did something for the first time in Chicago that Caleb Williams had done just twice before in his NFL career: win a game by double digits. Did that mark the official beginning of a new golden age of success and stability? I don't know. I do know it gave me something to cling to when trying to choose between two opponents who have posted negative point and yardage differentials so far this season. We now have tangible proof that the Johnson-Williams pairing can work, while the Raiders remain an underachieving mystery, sitting near the bottom of the league in most categories entering Week 4 -- except for passing yards (sixth) and attempts (ninth), to which I can only say, god bless Geno Smith for continuing to find Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker while the team around him searches for its footing. Las Vegas has enough talent, and the Bears' defense remains pliant enough (allowing 6.7 yards per play, the worst mark in the league entering Week 4) that Pete Carroll could snap Chicago out of its reverie. But for now, give me the rebuilding team that has a chance to actually log two feel-good victories in a row.

Why Dan picked the Packers: I don't think the Cowboys could have imagined their defense would be this bad when they traded Micah Parsons to Green Bay four weeks ago. Dallas ranks dead last in passing yards allowed, pass yards allowed per attempt and third-down conversion rate. It's flailed to 27th in scoring defense and 30th in total yards allowed. In other words, Dallas is the new ideal opponent for a team looking to rebound, like Green Bay. The Cowboys made Russell Wilson -- who was benched this week -- look like an All-Pro in Week 2 and then helped the Bears bounce back from a drubbing with a blowout victory in Week 3. If the Packers' offense can't relocate its mojo against a team allowing 18.6 yards per pass attempt on throws of 10-plus air yards -- second-most through three weeks in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) -- then the bandwagon should start to veer off the road. Winning without Micah is hard enough. Now Dak Prescott and Co. must make the attempt with prized offensive weapon CeeDee Lamb and 2025 first-round pick Tyler Booker sidelined.

MONDAY, SEPT. 29

Why Ali picked the Dolphins: The Dolphins return from their mini-bye having had an opportunity to rest and reflect on their best performance of the young season. There are no moral victories in the NFL, but last Thursday's loss in Buffalo at least showed that the 2025 Fins have some fight to them. Similarly, the Jets' walk-off loss in Tampa on Sunday didn't end as they had hoped (obviously), but there were positives for Aaron Glenn's team to build on. So, for two winless squads, at least their vibes are trending in a (slightly) better direction. If you're sensing I'm slow-playing explaining my pick, well … you're right. I have little wisdom to impart on these two AFC East cellar-dwellers. Both of the defenses are suspect, and it's not like either offense is that much more trustworthy. If De’Von Achane and rookie Ollie Gordon II get going early on, Tua Tagovailoa might finally be able to connect on some explosive scores. I'm unconfidently taking Miami at home in a game that could be beautiful in its ugliness.

Why Gennaro picked the Broncos: Bo Nix is off to a slow start. Again. The Broncos quarterback painfully stumbled out of the gates as a rookie, looking completely in over his head during the opening month of last season.

• Nix in September 2024: 60.1 comp%, 165.0 passing ypg, 4.8 ypa, 1:4 TD-to-INT ratio, 62.5 passer rating.

Of course, he flipped the script over the next 13 games, posting a 28:8 TD-to-INT ratio while guiding Denver to its first playoff appearance in nearly a decade. Consequently, the Nix-led Broncos entered this season with plenty of hype. But here we go again …

• Nix in September 2025: 64.2 comp%, 178.3 passing ypg, 5.6 ypa, 5:3 TD-to-INT ratio, 83.4 passer rating.

While those numbers aren't as ghastly as last September's, they still leave a lot to be desired from a second-year starter at the helm of a purported contender. Will the real Bo Nix please stand up? Or are we stuck with SeptemBo until the calendar flips?

I say Nix and the Broncos get right. After suffering consecutive road losses on the final play of the game, Denver's back in the comfy confines of Mile High, hosting a Burrow-less Bengals team with serious issues on both sides of the ball.

Visit ResponsiblePlay.org to learn more about responsible betting.